BMIE Market 85707

Pima County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	581 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	21 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	658 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	0 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	Data source not yet connected
Median age	22.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	4.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	1 2013 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2013 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 85707
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2002 → 2007, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2013, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2018	1 (range 0–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1998–2013 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.14) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	29 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	17 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	35 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85707. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1998–2013, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.14, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 29 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	17.3	17	40%	+6.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	35.3	35	35%	+12.4
Market Momentum Score	39.2	39	25%	+9.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 17 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	581	23	40%	+15.6
Households (ACS)	21	5	20%	+1.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 35 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+15.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.2	45	25%	+14.1
Population (ACS)	581	23	20%	+5.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+26.1
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+13.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (9)

By cuisine

American 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Coffee 1 · Filipino 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Quick service 4 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 4 · Bar 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bun-D at Davis-Monthan AFB	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Juice / smoothies	5200 E Ironwood St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service		3260 S. Craycroft Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	3260 Craycroft Rd Bldg 2521	open
Davis Monthan Officers Club	Bar		5555 E Ironwood St	open
Johnny's Philippine Grill	Food truck · Catering	Filipino	5405 E Granite St	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5405 E Granite St	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	(military Post Access Required) 5404 E Granite St Bldg 2527	open
Sports Hub	Bar		5355 E Ironwood St	open
Subway Charleys Cheesesteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Sandwiches · Mexican · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Juice / smoothies · American	5405 E. Granite St., Bldg 2527	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2013	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85707. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85708	1.8 mi	—
85711	2.4 mi	140	2023
85714	3.4 mi	48	2023
85706	3.5 mi	64	2023
85726	3.7 mi	4	2008
85723	4.4 mi	—
85710	4.5 mi	82	2023
85716	4.7 mi	80	2023
85721	5.0 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.