BMIE Market 85739

Pinal County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,478 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,350 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,051 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±574 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,848 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,331 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$81,711 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,258 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	67.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,848 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±544 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$416,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,180 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	255.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85739
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+53.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+900.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	21 (range 17–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.39) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	79 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85739. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.39, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.5	74	40%	+29.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75.9	76	35%	+26.6
Market Momentum Score	78.9	79	25%	+19.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,478	80	40%	+32.0
Median household income (ACS)	81,711	64	40%	+25.7
Households (ACS)	9,051	84	20%	+16.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	53.9	85	35%	+29.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.8	69	25%	+17.3
Population (ACS)	18,478	80	20%	+16.0
Median household income (ACS)	81,711	64	20%	+12.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	53.9	85	30%	+25.5
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (49)

By cuisine

American 11 · Mexican 11 · Coffee 6 · Latin American (other) 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · BBQ 3 · Dessert 3 · Pizza 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Quick service 10 · Bar 9 · Casual dining 6 · Dessert 6 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	16338 N Oracle Rd	open
Bubb's Grub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	16010 N Oracle Rd	open
Bugaloos	Food truck · Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	12995 N Oracle Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	15320 N Oracle Rd	open
Cactus Flower Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Mexican	5000 E Via Estancia Miraval	open
Cadallic Chaparral Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	47621 E Ballesta Rd	open
Cadillac chaparral steakhouse and saloon	Bar	Steakhouse	22861 hwy 79	open
Carlota's Authentic Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	15881 N Oracle Rd	open
Casa Ramirez Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · German / Eastern European	15930 N Oracle Rd Ste 116	open
Chuy's Mesquite Broiler	Bar		15318 N Oracle Rd	open
Claires Cafe & Art Gallery	Café	Coffee	16140 N Oracle Rd, Catalina, AZ 85739	open
Coyote Moon Bar & Lounge	Bar		5000 E Via Estancia Miraval	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service		16054 N Oracle Rd	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	16054 N Oracle Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	15318 N Oracle Rd	open
Elk's Lodge	Bar			open
Fork & Fire Catalina Grill Native Grill & Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	15318 N Oracle Rd #180	open
Golfsaddlebrooke	Restaurant (service type not stated)		66567 E Catalina Hills Dr	open
Grain River Asian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	12985 N Oracle Rd	open
Grandma Tonys Grandma Tony's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13005 N Oracle Rd #165	open
It's Greek to Me	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	15920 N Oracle Rd #120	open
Jerry Bob's Catalina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	16639 N Oracle Rd	open
La Terraza Raspados Gourmet	Dessert	Latin American (other) · Mexican · Dessert	16256 N Oracle Rd STE 140	open
Licks Ice Cream & Coffee	Dessert · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	16130 N Oracle Rd	open
Lito's Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	15665 N Lupine Pl	open
Little Caesars	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	15883 N Oracle Rd	open
Little Daily Delights	Bakery	Bakery	4745 E Wagon Train Rd	open
Lupe's Fine Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	35480 S Hwy 79	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	15885 N Oracle Rd	open
Mesquite Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	38691 S Mountain View Blvd	open
Mi Terra Mexican Restaurant	Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	12995 N Oracle Rd	open
Mi Tierra Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	16238 N Oracle Rd	open
Mountainview Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	38759 S Mountain View Blvd	open
Nico's Taco Shop	Quick service	Mexican	15270 N Oracle Rd	open
Oro Valley Coffee Roasting Co.	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	15631 N Oracle Rd	open
Players Pub Players Sports Pub & Grill, Players Pub	Bar · Casual dining		16024 N Oracle Rd	open
Poncho & Lefty Patriot Hot Dogs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	15884 N Oracle Rd	open
Rancheros Market	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Mexican	16142 N Oracle Rd	open
Rice Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	15310 N Oracle Rd	open
Saddlebrooke	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Samaniego Peak	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts		open
Sammy's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	16502 N Oracle Rd	open
Sgt. Kernels Popcorn Café	Café · Dessert · Coffee shop	Coffee · Dessert	15930 N Oracle Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	15310 N Oracle Rd	open
SUBWAY Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3400 E Golder Ranch Dr	open
Sunny Side Up Cafe	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee · Breakfast	15800 N Oracle Rd	open
The Preserve Fine Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	66567 E Catalina Hills Dr	open
The Roadrunner Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	64500 E SaddleBrooke Blvd	open
Vitello's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	15928 N Oracle Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	12	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	14	13	8	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	7	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	12	11	7	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	15	13	9	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	17	15	10	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	17	15	11	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	17	15	10	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	21	17	9	7	1	3	NAICS2002
2007	19	17	10	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	19	17	10	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	19	18	10	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	19	18	10	8	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	17	16	8	8	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	15	14	8	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	16	13	7	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	18	16	9	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	18	16	9	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	18	16	9	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	19	17	10	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	15	9	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	17	10	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	14	9	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	16	10	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	18	11	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	23	20	12	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85739. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.