BMIE Market 85742

Pima County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	31,613 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,392 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,709 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±569 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	25,212 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,275 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$98,844 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,568 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,702 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±81 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$368,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,573 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	22.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	22 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85742
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+340.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+214.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+2,100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	30 (range 27–33) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.8 per year, r² 0.95) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	90 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	97 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85742. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.95, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.1	86	40%	+34.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	90.0	90	35%	+31.5
Market Momentum Score	96.8	97	25%	+24.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	31,613	90	40%	+36.0
Median household income (ACS)	98,844	80	40%	+32.1
Households (ACS)	12,709	90	20%	+18.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	340	100	35%	+34.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.0	84	25%	+21.1
Population (ACS)	31,613	90	20%	+18.0
Median household income (ACS)	98,844	80	20%	+16.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 97 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+48.0
10-year restaurant growth	340	100	30%	+29.9
20-year restaurant growth	214.3	95	20%	+18.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (44)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 7 · Sandwiches 6 · Burgers 5 · Pizza 5 · Mexican 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 27 · Quick service 12 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Bar 4 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American · Burgers	5466 W Cortaro Farms Rd	open
Atomic Frog Icecream Parlor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9725 N Thornydale Rd #149, Tucson, AZ 85742	open
Black Rock Coffee Bar Black Rock Coffee Bar	Coffee shop	Coffee	3840 W Cortaro Farms Rd	open
Bob's Steak & Chop House Bob's Steak & Chop House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	2727 W Club Dr	open
Canvas Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9665 N Thornydale Rd Ste 140	open
Charleys Cheesesteaks Charleys Cheesesteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	6401 Marana Center Blvd #520	open
Charleys Philly Steaks Charleys Philly Steaks	Quick service	Sandwiches	6401 W. Marana Center Blvd. #520	open
Cortaro Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5690 W Cortaro Farms Rd	open
Desert Farmer	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2727 W Club Dr	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	12060 N Thornydale Road	open
Duke's Delicious Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6401 Marana Center Blvd	open
Dutch Bros. Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5690 W Cortaro Farms Rd	open
Famous Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	6401 W Marana Center Blvd Ste 512	open
Filiberto's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5730 W Cortaro Farms Rd	open
Fitos Taco shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	9665 N Thornydale Rd	open
IHOP IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	8445 N Cerius Stravenue	open
Johnny Rockets	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	6401 W Marana Center Blvd #514 Ste 514	open
La Carreta del Rorro	Food truck	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5505 W Cortaro Farms Rd	open
Legends Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2727 W Club Dr	open
Little Caesars Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9725 N Thornydale Rd	open
Mama’s Hawaiian BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Hawaiian / Pacific	6401 W Marana Center Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3800 W Lindavista Blvd	open
NASCAR Refuel Tenders & Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	8445 N Cerius Stravenue	open
Newton Pho	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5730 W Cortaro Farms Road, 100	open
Oasis Golf Club & Lounge	Bar		9290 N Thornydale Rd	open
Ol' Pot Hole, LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Tucson Premium Outlets, 6401 Marana Center Blvd	open
Old Pueblo Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		10088 N St Patrick Rd	open
Persian Room Fine Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	9290 N Thornydale Rd	open
Raaaspados Y Mas	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	6401 W Marana Center Blvd Ste 14	open
Roadrunner Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	9665 N Thornydale Rd	open
Sbarro Sbarro	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	6401 Marana Center Blvd	open
See's Candies Seasonal Pop Up Shop	Dessert		6401 W Marana Center Blvd Ste 922	open
Serial Grillers	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5660 W Cortaro Farms Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	5659 W Cortaro Farms Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6401 Marana Center Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches		open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3605 W Cortaro Farms Rd Ste 159	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	9725 N Thornydale Rd, Suite 161	open
Tea on the Town	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	13385 N Teal Blue Trl	open
Tenderfix By Noah Schnapp	Quick service		8445 N Cerius Stra	open
The Villages at Twin Peaks – Richmond American Homes	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	W Bandelier Court and West Twin	open
Tuuri's Tiki Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		4634 W Condor Dr	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5639 W Cortaro Farms Rd	open
Wetzel's Pretzels Wetzel's Pretzels	Quick service · Bakery	Bakery	6401 Marana Center Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	6	1	4	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	12	10	2	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	4	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	1	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	5	1	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	5	1	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	—	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	13	3	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	16	3	8	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	15	—	8	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	21	5	12	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	22	5	13	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85742. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85741	3.6 mi	82	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.