BMIE Market 85747

Pima County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	27,753 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,016 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,701 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±576 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	23,058 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,345 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,816 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,980 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,869 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±81 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$370,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,554 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	67.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	35 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85747
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+400.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,066.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	44 (range 39–49) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.8 per year, r² 0.86) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	90 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85747. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.86, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.7	87	40%	+34.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.3	81	35%	+28.5
Market Momentum Score	89.9	90	25%	+22.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	27,753	87	40%	+34.9
Median household income (ACS)	110,816	87	40%	+34.8
Households (ACS)	9,701	85	20%	+17.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	75	89	35%	+31.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.6	62	25%	+15.5
Population (ACS)	27,753	87	20%	+17.4
Median household income (ACS)	110,816	87	20%	+17.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	40	87	50%	+43.7
10-year restaurant growth	75	89	30%	+26.6
20-year restaurant growth	400	98	20%	+19.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (86)

By cuisine

Coffee 14 · Mexican 13 · American 11 · Sandwiches 10 · Burgers 8 · Dessert 7 · Pizza 7 · Asian 5 · Bakery 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Chinese 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Thai 2 · BBQ 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 46 · Quick service 28 · Coffee shop 10 · Café 9 · Bar 7 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 5 · Casual dining 3 · Food truck 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alternatively Full	Coffee shop	Coffee	820 863rd Hwy	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10115 E Old Vail Rd	open
Arizona BBQ Outfitters	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	9013 E Old Vail Rd	open
Baggin's Gourmet Sandwiches Baggin's Gourmet Sandwiches	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	10235 E Old Vail Rd	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	8140 S Houghton Rd Unit 120	open
Bobazona Bobazona	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	8140 S Houghton Rd	open
BoMo	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Tea / bubble tea · Dessert · Coffee	9040 E Valencia Rd	open
Brueggers Bagels Bruegger's Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Sandwiches	8140 S Houghton Rd	open
Buddy's Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7385 S Houghton Rd	open
Buddy's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7385 S Houghton Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	9175 S Rita Rd	open
Candy World	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9136 E Valencia Rd Ste 130	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	8120 S Houghton Rd	open
Che Cafe Empanadas Argentinas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	10940 E Mary Ann Cleveland Way	open
Chuy's Mesquite Broiler	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7585 S Houghton Rd	open
Civano Chicken Ranch	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Chicken / wings	5550 Civano Blvd	open
Civano Coffee House	Café	Coffee	5278 S Civano Blvd	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9210 S Houghton Rd	open
Crumbl - Houghton Town Center	Dessert	Dessert	9210 S Houghton Rd Ste 120	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	8045 S Rita Road	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	10200 E Old Vail Rd	open
Dutch Bros. Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	10105 E Old Vail Rd	open
Eegee's eegee's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	10158 E Old Vail Rd	open
El Coronado	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	9040 E Valencia Rd	open
EL CORONADO RESTAURANT	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	7385 S Houghton Rd	open
El Giro Food Truck	Food truck	Mexican		open
Farmacia Cime	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	10224 E Old Vail Rd	open
Feature	Food truck		7451 S Houghton Rd	open
Filiberto's Houghton	Quick service	Mexican	10224 E Old Vail Rd	open
Filiberto's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10224 E Old Vail Rd	open
Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	10205 E Old Vail Rd	open
Hamburger Stand Hamburger Stand	Quick service	Burgers · American	10185 E Old Vail Rd	open
Happy Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	9040 E Valencia Rd	open
Happytime Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9040 E Valencia Rd # 184-190	open
Hero's Morning Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	8110 S Houghton Rd	open
Hotrods Old Vail	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		10500 E Old Vail Rd	open
Java Edge	Coffee shop	Coffee	E. Valencia Rd.	open
Jeremiah's Italian Ice Jeremiah's Italian Ice	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	10165 E Old Vail Rd	open
Jerry Bob's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7545 Houghton Greenway #155	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	9172 S. Houghton Rd. Suite 150	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9136 E Valencia Rd	open
Luckie's Thai Asian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Chinese · Asian	8110 S Houghton Rd	open
Mama Louisa's On Houghton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	7545 S Houghton Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	9090 S Houghton Road	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	9130 E Valencia Road	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		5651 S Houghton Rd	open
Mirandas Cafe Bonita	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9040 E Valencia Rd Ste 100	open
MOD Pizza MOD Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	9210 S Houghton Rd Ste 100	open
Morty’s Backyard	Food truck		10072 S Houghton Rd	open
Native Grill & Wings Native Grill & Wings	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	10255 E Old Vail Rd	open
Old Vail & Houghton Salad and Go	Quick service		10071 E Old Vail Rd, Tucson, AZ 85747	open
Old Vail Rd Whataburger	Quick service		10048 East Old Vail Road	open
Our Sweet Lil' Cakery	Bakery	Bakery	10501 E Seven Generations Way Ste 131	open
OVN	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	9130 S Houghton Rd	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8270 S Houghton Rd #110	open
Papa Locos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8201 S Rita Rd	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9160 South Houghton Road	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8160 S Houghton Rd, Ste 102	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Seafood	9230 S Houghton Rd	open
Pour My Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	9136 E Valencia Rd	open
Proud Papa	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	8815 E Mountain Spring Dr	open
Rancho Rustico Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	10275 E Old Vail Rd	open
Rock N Roll Sushi Rock N Roll Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	10165 E Old Vail Rd Ste 151	open
Rocking K Market bar & restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		12660 E Old Spanish Trail	open
Sa-Ing Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	9136 E Valencia Rd	open
Salad and Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10071 E Old Vail Rd	open
Serial Grillers	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	7585 S Houghton Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	9050 E Valencia Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	8080 S Houghton Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	9255 S Rita Rd	open
SUBWAY Taco Bell	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Mexican	136 Valencia rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	9040 E Valencia Rd Suite 136	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	8140 S Houghton Rd Ste 100	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	10265 E. Old Vail Road	open
Taqueria 2 Hermanos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other) · Hot dogs	8270 S Houghton Rd #140	open
The Burger Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	9220 S Houghton Road	open
The Sunset Cantina @ The Pima County Fairgrounds	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	11300 S Houghton Rd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	10230 E Old Vail Rd	open
Vail Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	10105 E Old Vail Rd	open
Viva Coffee House	Coffee shop	Coffee	9136 E Valencia Rd Ste 160	open
Walking Box Cattle Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5400 S Old Spanish Trl	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	9260 S Houghton Rd	open
Whataburger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10048 E Old Vail Rd	open
Wings on Fire	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	9040 E Valencia Rd #100	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	1	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	17	16	9	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	22	20	11	5	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	22	20	13	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	21	19	11	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	19	17	9	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	21	19	9	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	22	20	9	8	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	23	21	9	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	21	20	8	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	21	19	7	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	22	20	6	11	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	27	25	8	12	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	29	27	9	13	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	31	29	8	15	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	34	31	9	16	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	41	37	10	20	7	—	NAICS2022
2023	38	35	8	21	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85747. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.