BMIE Market 85756

Pima County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	37,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,767 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,923 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±620 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	35,703 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,378 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$72,490 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,213 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,237 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±259 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$233,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,197 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	93.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85756
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	0.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-37.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+400.0% DERIVED: 2008 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 2–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	30 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85756. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.4	75	40%	+30.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77.3	77	35%	+27.1
Market Momentum Score	29.9	30	25%	+7.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	37,700	93	40%	+37.2
Median household income (ACS)	72,490	51	40%	+20.4
Households (ACS)	11,923	89	20%	+17.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	35%	+23.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	1.3	100	25%	+25.0
Population (ACS)	37,700	93	20%	+18.6
Median household income (ACS)	72,490	51	20%	+10.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 30 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-37.5	7	50%	+4.7
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	30%	+25.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (41)

By cuisine

American 11 · Mexican 5 · Hot dogs 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Pizza 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Bar 10 · Casual dining 8 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&W Restaurants A&W Restaurants	Quick service	Burgers · American	6261 E Benson Highway	open
Alvaro Sonora Hotdogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	9307 S Nogales Hwy	open
Arbuckle Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	Tucson International Airport, Terminal a	open
Arizona Sports Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American · Italian	Concourse A	open
Barrio Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		2600 E Los Reales Rd	open
Beyond Bread	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	7250 S Tucson Blvd	open
Bostick’s Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ		open
Bruegger's Bagels Bruegger's Bagels	Bakery · Coffee shop	Bakery · Coffee	7250 S Tucson Blvd	open
Bubba's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7710 S Wilmot Rd	open
BUILT Custom Burgers Built Burgers Ghana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	7250 S Tucson Blvd	open
Cinnabon Cinnabon	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5570 E Travel Plaza Way	open
ClamaTown	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		9418 S Nogales Hwy	open
Cupcakes	Bakery	Bakery	7060 S Tucson Blvd	open
Diamond Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	7350 S Nogales Hwy	open
El Amigo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6848-6998 S Burcham Ave	open
El Gorrion Burrito	Food truck	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	7698 S Nogales Hwy	open
El Kora Hot Dogs	Quick service	Hot dogs · Mexican	S Swan Rd #3	open
Finnegan's Pub	Bar · Casual dining		7051 S Tucson Blvd	open
Garden Grille & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	6575 S Country Club Rd	open
Hi-Way Chef Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5451 E Benson Hwy	open
Hielitos Lupita	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	Missiondale Rd & Valencia	open
I-10 & E. Valencia Whataburger	Quick service		5050 E. Valencia Rd	open
Indian Twist Airport	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	6801 S Tucson Blvd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		5000 E Valencia Rd	open
Jobob's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	7090 S Craycroft Rd	open
Los Abuelos Pacas	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Hot dogs · American	9060 S Nogales Hwy	open
Mission Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2949 E Elvira Rd	open
Periquin \| Sonoran Hot Dogs	Quick service	Hot dogs · American	6500 S 6th Ave	open
Sir Veza's El Charro Restaurant and The Maverick Room	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Mexican · Dessert · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) · Juice / smoothies · Coffee · American	7250 S Tucson Blvd Concourse A	open
SOL Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · American	7060 S Tucson Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6610 S Tucson Blvd.	open
The Canez Bar & Grill	Bar	Mexican	6653 S 10th Ave	open
The Flight Grill	Casual dining · Bar		6000 E Valencia Rd	open
The Maverick	Bar			open
The Sports Bar At Desert Diamond Casino	Bar			open
The Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	7350 S Nogales Hwy	open
Thunder Canyon Brewstillery	Bar		7250 S Tucson Blvd	open
Tucson Truck Terminal Roady's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5451 E Benson Hwy	open
Voyager Bar And Grill Fat Willy's Family Sports Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	8701 S Kolb Rd	open
Whataburger	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		5050 E. Valencia Rd	open
Window Rock East	Bar		7202 S Wilmot Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2008	2	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	7	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85756. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85734	2.3 mi	1	2008

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.