BMIE Market 88012

Doña Ana County, New Mexico · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	33,158 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,061 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,061 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±716 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	25,961 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,533 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$69,052 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,581 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	32.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,325 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±82 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$249,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,050 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	348.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 88012
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+116.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+550.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 16–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.87) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	94 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 88012. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.87, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Mexico and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 177, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.3	72	40%	+28.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84.1	84	35%	+29.4
Market Momentum Score	94.4	94	25%	+23.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	33,158	91	40%	+36.3
Median household income (ACS)	69,052	45	40%	+18.2
Households (ACS)	12,061	89	20%	+17.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	116.7	95	35%	+33.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.9	95	25%	+23.8
Population (ACS)	33,158	91	20%	+18.1
Median household income (ACS)	69,052	45	20%	+9.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	62.5	93	50%	+46.3
10-year restaurant growth	116.7	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	550	99	20%	+19.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 5 · Mexican 5 · Burgers 3 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Quick service 6 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Banda Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3901 Bataan Memorial Hwy West	open
Big Pauly's Food Truck Emmas Snack Shack	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	4666 Sonoma Ranch Blvd	open
CAKE with a POP	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	4313 Camino Dos Vidas	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	3965 Bataan Memorial West	open
Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5021 Bataan Memorial W.	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	5995 Bataan Memorial West	open
Las Cruces Hash House Harriers	Coffee shop	American · Coffee	9558 Hondo Rd	open
Las Cruces Trellis co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Pizza	8195 Bataan Memorial W	open
Los Compas Mexican Restaurant Los Compas	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	6335 Bataan Mem W Unit 1	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4810 Mesa Grande Drive	open
Moongate Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Mexican · Coffee · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · American	9545 Bataan Mem W	open
Papa John's Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1965 Bataan Mem W Unit B	open
Santa Fe Grill Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2001 Bataan Memorial	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3981 Bataan Mem W	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches		open
Antonio's Restaurant & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5195 Bataan Memorial W	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	13	4	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	13	4	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	13	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 88012. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.