BMIE Market 88021

Doña Ana County, New Mexico · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,298 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±892 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,597 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±470 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	18,421 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,896 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$46,217 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,038 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$608 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±113 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$153,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,564 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	457.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 88021
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2017 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-57.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 1–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2011–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	47 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 88021. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2011–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Mexico and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 177, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	50.7	51	40%	+20.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.3	71	35%	+25.0
Market Momentum Score	47.0	47	25%	+11.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,298	78	40%	+31.2
Median household income (ACS)	46,217	11	40%	+4.3
Households (ACS)	5,597	76	20%	+15.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	1.8	99	25%	+24.8
Population (ACS)	16,298	78	20%	+15.6
Median household income (ACS)	46,217	11	20%	+2.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	-40	7	20%	+1.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

Mexican 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · American 1 · Coffee 1 · Pizza 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Angel's Garden	Juice, smoothie, tea · Specialty food shop · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Bakery	117 Ranch Rd	open
Anthony Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1212 Livesay St	open
Aurora's Tortas	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	716 Anthony Dr	open
Diego s Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza		open
Ernestos Mexican Food Ernesto's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	200 Anthony Dr	open
Estrella De Michoacan	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Latin American (other) · Dessert	880 Anthony Dr	open
GroWild Cafe & Events	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	2802 NM-28	open
Icebox 28 Beer Garden	Bar · Brewery / taproom		10092 NM-28	open
La Vina Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		4201 S Highway 28	open
Little Mountain Bubble Cones	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies	217 Sandia Dr	open
Mesa Vista Winery Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3200 NM-28	open
Public House 28 Brewery	Brewery / taproom		10092 Hwy. 28	open
Sombra Antigua Vineyard and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		430 La Vina Rd	open
Sonic Drive-In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	110 W Elm	open
Tacos El Abuelo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	602 Anthony Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	5	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	5	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 88021. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.