BMIE Market 92003

San Diego County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,061 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±874 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,751 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±205 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,746 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,995 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$113,216 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,525 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,252 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±417 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$926,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±70,302 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	15.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 92003
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	25.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 10–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.62) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	52 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 92003. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.62, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.2	71	40%	+28.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.4	58	35%	+20.4
Market Momentum Score	52.0	52	25%	+13.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,061	61	40%	+24.3
Median household income (ACS)	113,216	88	40%	+35.2
Households (ACS)	1,751	59	20%	+11.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	35%	+19.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.8	38	25%	+9.5
Population (ACS)	5,061	61	20%	+12.1
Median household income (ACS)	113,216	88	20%	+17.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	30%	+16.5
20-year restaurant growth	66.7	73	20%	+14.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 3 · Mexican 3 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Quick service 4 · Bar 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Backdraft Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	5525 Mission Rd Ste F	open
Bonsall Donut House	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	5523 Mission Rd	open
Brain Freeze Premium Frozen Yogurt & Ice Cream of Bonsall	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	5256 S Mission Rd	open
Cortez Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5517 Mission Rd	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	5519 Mission Rd	open
Fresco Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Italian	5256 S Mission Rd	open
Harlow's Restaurant, Cocktail Bar & Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		31474 Golf Club Dr	open
Hueftle Farms Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		4582 Valle Del Sol	open
Iamme Ia Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5256 S Mission Rd Ste 907	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		5256 S Mission Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5565 Mission Rd	open
Peking Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5256 S Mission Rd	open
Plume & Brew Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	30160 Old California 76	open
Ringer's Cocktail Lounge	Bar		5517 Mission Rd #2	open
Rio Rico Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5256 S Mission Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5523 Mission Rd Ste D	open
Tekila Cocina Mexicana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5256 S Mission Rd	open
Village Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5256 S Mission Rd	open
Z Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	5256 S Mission Rd	open
Z South	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5256 S Mission Rd Ste 903	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	9	3	5	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	4	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	3	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	9	2	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	10	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	2	7	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	12	2	7	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	1	7	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	1	8	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	9	8	—	5	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	10	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	9	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	3	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	11	9	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 92003. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
92084	4.0 mi	60	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.