BMIE Market 92040

San Diego County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	46,216 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,652 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	15,426 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±733 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	41,281 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	15,610 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$107,937 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,944 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,960 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±105 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$723,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39,383 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	67.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	34 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 92040
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+17.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	33 (range 30–36) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	48 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 92040. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	91.4	91	40%	+36.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69.3	69	35%	+24.3
Market Momentum Score	47.5	48	25%	+11.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	46,216	96	40%	+38.4
Median household income (ACS)	107,937	86	40%	+34.2
Households (ACS)	15,426	94	20%	+18.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.4	83	25%	+20.7
Population (ACS)	46,216	96	20%	+19.2
Median household income (ACS)	107,937	86	20%	+17.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.3	63	50%	+31.5
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (78)

By cuisine

American 16 · Mexican 12 · Bakery 9 · Coffee 9 · Dessert 9 · Pizza 8 · Italian 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Burgers 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Chicken / wings 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Noodles / ramen / pho 2 · Seafood 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Vietnamese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Middle Eastern 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 43 · Quick service 16 · Bar 11 · Dessert 11 · Bakery 9 · Café 8 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&W Restaurant KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	12061 Woodside Ave	open
Albert's Fresh Mexican Food Albert's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	13334 Hwy 8 Business	open
Angry Petes Pizza Lakeside	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12245 Woodside Ave	open
Annie Oakley's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	12212 Woodside Ave	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	12136 Woodside Ave	open
Banh Mi Vietnamese Sandwiches & Cafe	Café	Vietnamese · Sandwiches · Coffee	1932 Wildcat Canyon Rd	open
Barkley Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		9113 Gotta Pl	open
Barona Food Court	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American		open
Better Days Pizzeria & Sports Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10109 Maine Ave	open
Boll Weevil	Casual dining · Bar	American · Burgers	9741 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Branded Oak	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9927 Maine Ave	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	10130 Maine Ave	open
Café 21 Hookah Lounge	Bar		9746 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Cafe 67	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	12381 Mapleview St	open
Caffeine Queens	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	12403 Woodside Ave	open
Cake Batter Batter	Bakery	Bakery	9664 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Cali Stack Burgers & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Sandwiches · American	12336 Woodside Ave	open
California Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9666 Winter Gdns Blvd	open
Camila's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Italian	12580 Lakeshore Dr	open
Cookies At Home Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert		open
Country Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	12169 Woodside Ave C	open
Crema Dolce	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Coffee · Dessert	9930 Maine Ave	open
Cups & Cones	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9930 Maine Ave	open
Deli Belly	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	12346 Woodside Ave	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13584 Camino Canada	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	9710 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Eastbound Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	10053 Maine Ave	open
El Capitan	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		12439 Julian Ave	open
Feisty Kate's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1932 Wildcat Canyon Rd	open
Feisty Kate's Burgers & Malts	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert · Café	Mexican · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Chinese · Burgers · Noodles / ramen / pho · Latin American (other) · Asian · American	1932 Wildcat Canyon Rd	open
Gaetano's Lakeside	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13524 Hwy 8 Business	open
Giant Bambino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	9534 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Giant Pizza King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	9742 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Greek Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	9536 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Heavenly Treats	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	9077 Westhill Rd	open
Italian Cucina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	1932 Wildcat Canyon Rd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		12155 Woodside Ave	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	9760 Winters Gardens Blvd. Suite A & B	open
Kabul Green Restaurant Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	12128 Woodside Ave	open
La Palapa Mexican Restaurant & Cocktails	Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	12169 Woodside Ave	open
Lakeside Cafe & Bakery	Café	Coffee	12212 Woodside Ave	open
Lakeside Pho & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	9610 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Lakeside Social	Bakery	Bakery	12247 Woodside Ave	open
Lengs Chinese Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	9610 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	12405 Woodside Ave	open
Llittle Miss Brewing	Brewery / taproom		12245 Woodside Ave	open
Los Rancheritos Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10205 Lake Jennings Park Rd	open
Margarita Sauceda	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12401 Woodside Ave	open
Mariscos El Tiburon	Food truck	Mexican · Seafood	12580 Lakeshore Dr	open
Mary's Donuts and Coffee	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	10101 Maine Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	9614 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Merry's Subs	Other	Sandwiches	12346 Woodside Ave	open
Monserrate Pastries	Bakery	Bakery	9664 Winter Gdns Blvd Unit B	open
Neon Moon Bar	Bar		8203 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
New York Giant Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	9610 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Orange Julius Dairy Queen	Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	12260 Woodside Ave	open
Ottavio's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	12440 Woodside Ave	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	12336 Woodside Ave Unit C	open
Plaza Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1932 Wildcat Canyon Rd	open
Roberto's Taco Shop Roberto’s Taco Shop Lubbock TX	Quick service	Mexican	12401 Woodside Ave	open
Rosarito's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	9562 Winter Gdns Blvd B	open
Sarais Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10143 Maine Ave	open
Sombrero Mexican Food Sombrero Mexican Restaurant	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	12250 Woodside Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	9760 Winter Gdns Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	9562 Winter Gardens Blvd Suite C	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	12265 Woodside Ave	open
The Acai Addiction	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12473 Woodside Ave Ste A	open
The Grill at Willowbrook	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11851 Riverside Dr	open
The Parks Nutrition	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Healthy / salads / bowls	12241 Woodside Ave	open
The Sourdough Babe Bakehouse	Bakery	Bakery	12741 Laurel St	open
The Spot Hookah Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		9746 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
The Yogurt Barn	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9840 Channel Rd	open
Trevi Hills Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		13010 Muth Valley Rd	open
Wienerschnitzel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	9536 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Wings & Mix Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8215 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Wow Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	10205 Lake Jennings Park Rd B	open
Yas Lounge	Bar		9746 Winter Gardens Blvd	open
Neighbor's Pub & Grub	Bar		12169 Woodside Ave Ste F	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	31	29	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	31	30	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	32	30	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	42	40	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	42	35	12	22	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	39	33	10	22	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	35	30	9	19	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	41	35	8	24	3	3	NAICS1997
2002	41	35	10	21	4	3	NAICS1997
2003	41	34	10	21	3	5	NAICS2002
2004	36	29	10	18	—	5	NAICS2002
2005	41	36	16	19	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	33	30	14	16	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	35	33	15	18	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	34	33	12	19	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	31	29	10	17	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	34	32	9	20	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	31	29	8	17	3	2	NAICS2007
2012	37	36	11	19	5	1	NAICS2012
2013	34	34	13	18	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	33	33	13	18	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	31	31	11	17	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	32	32	13	15	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	36	35	12	18	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	33	32	13	16	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	35	32	10	19	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	33	32	10	17	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	31	30	10	16	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	39	34	10	16	8	—	NAICS2022
2023	38	34	10	17	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 92040. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.