BMIE Market 92352

San Bernardino County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,246 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±977 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,546 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±341 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,004 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,544 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$105,753 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,400 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,347 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±654 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$694,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±54,106 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 92352
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 10–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.11) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	57 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 92352. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.11, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.3	72	40%	+28.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.1	58	35%	+20.3
Market Momentum Score	57.3	57	25%	+14.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,246	64	40%	+25.6
Median household income (ACS)	105,753	84	40%	+33.8
Households (ACS)	2,546	65	20%	+12.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	9.1	53	35%	+18.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.2	39	25%	+9.8
Population (ACS)	6,246	64	20%	+12.8
Median household income (ACS)	105,753	84	20%	+16.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	9.1	53	30%	+16.0
20-year restaurant growth	-20	14	20%	+2.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 7 · Sandwiches 3 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 11 · Casual dining 10 · Quick service 4 · Dessert 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aroma's Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	27984 CA-189, Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352	open
Belgian Waffle Works Belgian Waffle Works	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European · Breakfast	28200 Highway 189	open
Bin 189	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		27984 CA-189	open
Cadillac Cowboy	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	28200 CA-189	open
Cask & Cure	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		28200 CA-189 c210	open
Diane's Saddleback Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	300 CA-173	open
Dogwood Dockside Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		870 North State Highway 173, Ste B.	open
Jake's On The Lake Cruising Cuisine	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	870 N State Highway 173	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	28200 Highway 189 Suite F-190	open
Jetties Waterfront Kitchen + Drink	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	28200 Highway 189	open
Lake Arrowhead Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		329 Villa Way	open
Lake Arrowhead Sports Grille	Bar · Casual dining	American	27200 CA-189	open
Lake Arrowhead Village Pizza	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches	28200 CA-189	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	28200 Hwy189	open
Papagayos	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	28200 Highway 189	open
Rippin' Bowls	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	28200 CA-189 Ste F-180	open
Rocket Fizz Lake Arrowhead Rocket Fizz	Dessert		28200 CA-189	open
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory	Dessert	Dessert	L.A. Village, 28200 CA-189 Ste C-200	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	28200 Highway 189 Ste F190	open
Tea & Coffee Exchange	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	28200 Highway 189	open
The Grapevine	Bar		28200 Hwy 189 C210	open
The Lakefront Tap Room Bar and Kitchen	Casual dining · Bar	American	28200 CA-189 E-200	open
The Tea Exchange	Restaurant (service type not stated)		28200 Highway 189	open
Tiki Republik	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		28200 CA-189	open
UCLA Lake Arrowhead Lodge Dining Room	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	850 Willow Creek Rd	open
Village Ice Cream and Sweet Shoppe	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	28200 CA-189 Unit T-250	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	14	13	9	2	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	13	12	9	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	8	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	6	1	3	1	NAICS1997
2002	17	15	9	1	5	2	NAICS1997
2003	17	15	8	2	3	2	NAICS2002
2004	16	15	7	3	4	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	12	5	3	4	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	7	3	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	16	15	7	4	4	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	12	5	3	4	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	12	6	3	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	16	15	7	5	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	13	12	5	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	12	5	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	12	10	6	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	13	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	10	6	3	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	13	10	5	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	14	11	6	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	15	11	6	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	15	11	6	4	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	15	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 92352. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
92317	2.0 mi	8	2023
92321	2.6 mi	4	2023
92378	3.3 mi	3	2022
92391	3.4 mi	1	2005
92385	4.5 mi	3	2019

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.