BMIE Market 92586

Riverside County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,767 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,536 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±569 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,815 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,638 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$57,708 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,645 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	58.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,752 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±119 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$381,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,044 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 92586
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+260.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	21 (range 18–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.67) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 92586. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.67, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.0	60	40%	+24.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.0	63	35%	+22.1
Market Momentum Score	70.7	71	25%	+17.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,767	82	40%	+32.8
Median household income (ACS)	57,708	26	40%	+10.3
Households (ACS)	9,536	85	20%	+16.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	35%	+22.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.7	78	25%	+19.4
Population (ACS)	20,767	82	20%	+16.4
Median household income (ACS)	57,708	26	20%	+5.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	30%	+18.9
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

American 11 · Mexican 5 · Asian 3 · Burgers 3 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Korean 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Quick service 9 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 2 · Catering 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bad Hombre Tacos	Food truck · Catering	Mexican	29683 New Hub Dr	open
Black Bear Diner Black Bear Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	27990 Bradley Rd	open
Black Bear Diner Menifee Black Bear Diner	Casual dining	American	27990 Bradley Rd	open
Casa Jimenez Menifee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	26862 Cherry Hills Blvd	open
Castañeda's Mexican Food Castañeda's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	28005 Bradley Rd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	29847 Haun Rd	open
China Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	27388 Sun City Blvd # A	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	26920 Cherry Hills Blvd	open
El Mariscos Uruapan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Mexican	27192 Sun City Blvd	open
El Rancho Authentic Mexican Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	27192 Sun City Blvd	open
Fishbone Seafood - Menifee	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		27311 Newport Rd Ste 310	open
Gracie's Lunchbox	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	28089 Bradley Rd	open
Grey Iron Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		29683 New Hub Dr	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		26670 Mccall Blvd	open
Jacky's Donut Hut	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	27388 Sun City Blvd STE E	open
Joyful Noise Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	26924 Cherry Hills Blvd	open
Lady R Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	27192 Sun City Blvd Ste F	open
Luna Grill Menifee Luna Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Greek	27311 Newport Rd Suite 300	open
Mama's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Asian · American	26850 Cherry Hills Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	28000 Bradley Rd	open
Melody Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	26846 Cherry Hills Blvd	open
Merna's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	26850 Cherry Hills Blvd	open
Nenas Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	27192 Sun City Blvd	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	27388 Sun City Blvd	open
Rasoi Indian Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	27738 Encanto Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee		open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	26926 Cherry Hills Blvd Ste D	open
Sun City Family Restaurant	Casual dining	American	26824 Cherry Hills Blvd	open
Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · BBQ · American	29860 Haun Rd	open
The Mason Jar Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		29683 New Hub Dr Ste A	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	27251 Newport Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	27925 Encanto Dr.	open
Yellow Basket of Menifee Yellow Basket	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	29966 Haun Rd	open
Great Wall Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		27388 Sun City Blvd Ste A	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	3	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	11	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	9	3	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	16	13	6	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	18	15	8	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	18	15	8	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	18	15	8	4	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	18	16	9	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	17	15	9	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	16	9	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	16	9	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	15	9	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	17	9	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	23	19	9	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	18	8	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	18	9	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 92586. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
92587	3.0 mi	8	2023
92585	3.1 mi	8	2023
92584	3.4 mi	75	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.