BMIE Market 93241

Kern County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,250 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,237 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,332 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±364 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,489 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,202 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$33,417 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,103 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	31.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$962 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±85 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$211,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,687 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 93241
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+54.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+70.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	21 (range 18–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.51) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	55 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 93241. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.51, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	46.5	46	40%	+18.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.7	63	35%	+22.0
Market Momentum Score	54.7	55	25%	+13.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,250	77	40%	+30.8
Median household income (ACS)	33,417	3	40%	+1.3
Households (ACS)	4,332	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	54.6	85	35%	+29.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.2	68	25%	+16.9
Population (ACS)	15,250	77	20%	+15.4
Median household income (ACS)	33,417	3	20%	+0.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	54.6	85	30%	+25.5
20-year restaurant growth	13.3	41	20%	+8.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (42)

By cuisine

Mexican 14 · Latin American (other) 8 · American 7 · Seafood 6 · Burgers 4 · Bakery 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 27 · Quick service 6 · Food truck 5 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Bar 2 · Dessert 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Angelica's Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	10915 Main St	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7930 Panama Rd	open
Carnitas Uruapan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9501 Weedpatch Hwy	open
Chilate Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9245 Weedpatch Hwy	open
Courtesy Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	9800 Main St	open
Donut Farm	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	9740 Main St	open
El Fogon Lamont	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	8105 Paradise Rd	open
El Jacalito Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10110 Main St	open
El Panda Gordo Lamont	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Mexican	9305 Main St	open
El Pueblo Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9705 Main St	open
El Super Pollo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings	9710 Main St	open
Emily's Place	Bar · Casual dining		11112 Main St	open
Fiery Chick	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	10110 Main St	open
Frosty King	Quick service	American · Burgers	9201 Weedpatch Hwy	open
Hermanos Manriquez Auto Dismantling	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8209 Buena Vista Blvd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		9606 Weedpatch Hwy	open
La Mexicana Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	11121 Main St	open
La Mina Caters	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	12812 Main St	open
La Mordidita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood · Latin American (other)	11103 Main St	open
La Reyna michoacana	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	10600 Main St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	10504 Main St	open
Los Tarascos Birrieria Y Mas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10110 Main St	open
Mariscos El Guero Loko	Food truck	Mexican · Seafood	10110 Main St	open
Mariscos Las Islitas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Latin American (other)	11111 Main St	open
Mariscos Los Juanes	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Mexican	8121 Wharton Ave	open
Mariscos Panda Gordo #2	Food truck	Mexican · Seafood	10320 Main St	open
Mariscos Plebes Gueros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	10700 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	10320 Main St	open
Nieve y Antojitos Las Tapatias	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	9601 Weedpatch Hwy	open
Pirulles Bar	Bar		11108 Main St	open
Protein Hub	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	10602 Main St	open
Pupusas y Antojos Salvadorenos Sandra	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10209 Main St	open
Root Beer King	Quick service	American · Burgers	11000 Main St	open
Rusty's Pizza Parlor Rusty's Pizza Parlor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10401 Main St	open
Sastreria El Mundo Elegante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8513 Bonita Rd	open
SayYes2 Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	10602 Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10318 Main Street Suite B	open
SushiSon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck · Casual dining	American	10120 Main St	open
Taco Loco	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11204 Main St	open
Tacos y Birria La Original	Food truck		11204 Main St	open
Tacos y Mariscos sarita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	Hall y main st	open
Yumami Lamont	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10621 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	10	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	14	8	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1996	16	12	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	16	12	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	16	12	5	7	—	4	NAICS1997
1999	20	16	8	8	—	4	NAICS1997
2000	17	13	9	4	—	4	NAICS1997
2001	20	16	11	5	—	4	NAICS1997
2002	20	15	7	8	—	4	NAICS1997
2003	19	15	7	8	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	18	15	8	7	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	18	15	8	7	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	17	14	8	6	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	17	14	6	7	1	3	NAICS2002
2008	17	14	6	8	—	3	NAICS2007
2009	16	13	5	8	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	15	12	4	8	—	3	NAICS2007
2011	15	12	4	8	—	3	NAICS2007
2012	17	14	6	8	—	3	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	5	6	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	15	13	6	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	17	15	8	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	20	18	9	9	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	18	17	4	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	17	5	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	15	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	18	6	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	17	5	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	18	7	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	17	6	11	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 93241. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
93307	2.0 mi	58	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.