BMIE Market 93243

Kern County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	834 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±315 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	419 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±187 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,699 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	713 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	Data source not yet connected
Median age	43.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$422,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±75,306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	163.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 93243
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	64.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-43.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-30.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+12.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 7–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.24) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	14 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	20 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	11 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	10 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 93243. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.24, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 14 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	19.7	20	40%	+7.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	11.0	11	35%	+3.8
Market Momentum Score	9.7	10	25%	+2.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 20 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	834	29	40%	+11.6
Median household income (ACS)	34,737	4	40%	+1.4
Households (ACS)	419	33	20%	+6.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 11 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-30.8	10	35%	+3.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	107.9	4	25%	+1.0
Population (ACS)	834	29	20%	+5.8
Median household income (ACS)	34,737	4	20%	+0.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 10 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-43.8	7	50%	+3.3
10-year restaurant growth	-30.8	10	30%	+3.0
20-year restaurant growth	-10	17	20%	+3.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 9 · Burgers 7 · Mexican 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Coffee 4 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Quick service 14 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Other 2 · Bakery 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baskin-robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5821 Dennis McCarthy Dr	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	49669 Gorman Post Rd	open
China Red House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	223 Frazier Mountain Park Rd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5602 Dennis McCarthy Dr Ste B	open
Denny's	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	42810 Frazier Mountain Rd	open
Denny's	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · Coffee · American	9046 Loop Rd E	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5701 Dennis Mccarthy Drive	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Burgers · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	42810 Frazier Mountain Rd	open
Firehouse Subs	Other	Sandwiches	5602 Dennis McCarthy Dr, #A	open
Hungry Als	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	Frazier Mountain Park Rd	open
IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	5821 Dennis Mccarthy Dr	open
In and Out In-N-Out Merchandise	Quick service	Burgers · American		open
In-N-Out Burger In-N-Out Burger	Quick service	Burgers · American	5926 Dennis Mccarthy	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		73 Frazier Mountain Park Rd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		8968 Grapevine Rd E	open
Los Pinos Mexican Restaurant Los Reyes Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	133 Frazier Mountain Park Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	Gorman School Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5852 Dennis McCarthy Dr	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	5810 Dennis Mccarthy Blvd	open
Ranch House	Casual dining	American	49713 Gorman Post Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5844 Dennis McCarthy Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	161 Frazier Mountain Park Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	5821 Dennis McCarthy Drive, #27, Petro Stopping Center	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5855 Dennis McCarthy Dr	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	5941 Dennis McCarthy Drive	open
Tacos Jimenez	Food truck	Mexican	133 Frazier Mountain Park Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5821 Dennis McCarthy Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	10	2	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	2	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	11	1	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	2	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	2	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	13	4	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	13	4	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	13	4	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	14	4	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	15	5	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	15	5	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	16	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	16	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	15	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	16	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	13	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 93243. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.