BMIE Market 93263

Kern County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	24,024 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±771 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,402 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±333 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,582 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,305 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$71,528 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,792 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	28.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,285 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±133 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$334,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,197 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	92.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 93263
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-7.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+8.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	27 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 93263. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.2	69	40%	+27.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.6	62	35%	+21.6
Market Momentum Score	26.5	27	25%	+6.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	24,024	85	40%	+33.8
Median household income (ACS)	71,528	50	40%	+19.8
Households (ACS)	6,402	78	20%	+15.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.4	90	25%	+22.6
Population (ACS)	24,024	85	20%	+16.9
Median household income (ACS)	71,528	50	20%	+9.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 27 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-7.1	21	50%	+10.5
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (52)

By cuisine

Mexican 17 · Coffee 7 · Pizza 5 · American 4 · Bakery 4 · Burgers 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Dessert 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Italian 2 · Seafood 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mediterranean 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Quick service 12 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aulakh Brothers Farms	Winery / distillery / taproom		17450 Palm Ave	open
Big Joe's Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	31109 7th Standard Rd	open
Brookside At The Depot	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	402 Central Ave	open
Buffet y Tacos Zamora	Restaurant (service type not stated)		371 Arroyo Seco Ave	open
Burger Factory	Quick service	Burgers · American	313 Central Ave	open
Chester's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	6000 E Lerdo Highway	open
China Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	563 James St	open
Covenant Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	1101 E Lerdo Hwy	open
Don Pepe's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican	301 E Lerdo Hwy	open
El Duran Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	549 CA-43	open
El Michoacano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	237 Central Ave	open
frosty king shafter	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	683 Central Valley Hwy	open
Generals Headquarters	Quick service	Burgers · American	710 E Lerdo Hwy	open
Giovanni's Italian Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	130 Walker St	open
Habanero Yucatan style cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Mediterranean	241 Frances Ave	open
Jasmine's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	282 Sunset Ave	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	31109 7Th Standard Road	open
La Casita del Elote	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	402 Freedman St	open
La Fonda Taqueria and Mariscos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood	358 Central Ave	open
La Gardenia	Bar	Mexican	18830 Mannel Ave	open
La Imperial Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican	422 James St	open
La Imperial Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	189 E Lerdo Hwy	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	701 Central Valley Hwy	open
Lonchera Don Rigo	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		432 W Ash Ave	open
Los Alteños Taqueria Taqueria Taxco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	18487 S Shafter Ave	open
Lupe's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	311 Central Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	101 W Lerdo Hwy	open
Nieves Angie	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	700 S Shafter Ave	open
Protein43	Coffee shop	Coffee	205 California Ave	open
Red Wagon	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee	18800 Beech Ave	open
Ricos Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		316 Kylie Way	open
Rocy's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	749 S Shafter Ave	open
Shafter Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	301 State Ave	open
Shafter Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	210 Central Ave	open
Smokin' Jalapeño Taco Co.	Delivery-focused · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	31109 7th Standard Rd	open
Sno Fun	Dessert		101 Central Ave	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	777 Central Valley Highway	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	780 Central Valley Highway	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	136 W Lerdo Hwy	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	770 E Lerdo Hwy	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	301 Central Ave Ste B	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	100 W Lerdo Hwy	open
Tacos La Villa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	135 Central Valley Hwy	open
TACOS Y MARISCÓs BAJÍO	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood	18699 Beech Ave	open
Taqueria La Bonita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1150 E Lerdo Hwy Ste e	open
The 5s Pizza and More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza		open
The Hub	Café	Coffee	171 Central Ave	open
Tin Cup Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1101 E Lerdo Hwy	open
Tony's Pizza Tony's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	139 N Central Valley Hwy	open
Wonderful La Cocina Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	4040 7th Standard Rd	open
Ye Olde Pube	Bar		314 Rodriguez Ave	open
Del Taco	Quick service		135 S Central Valley Hwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	15	12	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	15	12	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	12	10	3	6	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	12	10	4	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	16	14	6	7	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	12	10	3	7	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	15	13	3	8	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	15	13	3	8	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	18	15	5	9	1	3	NAICS2002
2005	17	14	4	10	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	21	18	6	10	2	2	NAICS2002
2007	21	19	5	13	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	21	20	5	14	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	20	19	5	13	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	19	18	4	12	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	19	18	5	10	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	12	4	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	14	4	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	15	4	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	16	16	6	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	16	6	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	14	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	16	6	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	17	8	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	13	5	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 93263. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.