BMIE Market 93427

Santa Barbara County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,737 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±322 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,178 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±222 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,505 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,141 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$102,857 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,202 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,122 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±152 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$867,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±65,149 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	69.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 93427
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	40.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+18.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+52.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+45.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+146.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	40 (range 38–42) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.3 per year, r² 0.94) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 93427. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.94, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.6	71	40%	+28.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.8	61	35%	+21.3
Market Momentum Score	75.7	76	25%	+18.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,737	63	40%	+25.0
Median household income (ACS)	102,857	83	40%	+33.1
Households (ACS)	2,178	62	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	52.4	85	35%	+29.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	55.8	8	25%	+2.1
Population (ACS)	5,737	63	20%	+12.5
Median household income (ACS)	102,857	83	20%	+16.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	18.5	76	50%	+38.1
10-year restaurant growth	52.4	85	30%	+25.4
20-year restaurant growth	45.5	61	20%	+12.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (112)

By cuisine

American 12 · Mexican 9 · Coffee 8 · Bakery 7 · Asian 4 · Burgers 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Breakfast 3 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Steakhouse 2 · BBQ 1 · Brazilian 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 56 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 34 · Bar 19 · Quick service 10 · Bakery 7 · Café 7 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A J Spurs Saloon & Dining Hall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · BBQ · American	350 E Hwy 246	open
A-Ru Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	225 McMurray Rd	open
Al Fresco Picnic	Other	Sandwiches	225 McMurray Rd	open
Albertos Coffee	Restaurant (service type not stated)		522 Calor Dr	open
Alma Rosa Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		181 Industrial Way	open
Alma Rosa Winery & Vineyards Ranch House & Estate	Winery / distillery / taproom		7250 Santa Rosa Rd	open
Aly's Grill From Brazil	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Brazilian	205 E Highway 246 Ste 102	open
Amber Rose Wines Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		140 Industrial Way	open
Antonio's Pizza &Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	278 E Hwy 246	open
AR Restaurant & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	225 McMurray Rd # A	open
Artisan Excursion Wine Tours	Winery / distillery / taproom		51 E Highway 246	open
Ascendant Spirits, Inc.	Winery / distillery / taproom		37 Industrial Way Ste 103	open
Beckmen Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		61 Industrial Way	open
Blenders In The Grass Blenders In The Grass- Lompoc	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	234 E Hwy 246 #105	open
Bodega Bake Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	100 Los Padres Way #2	open
Bradley Family Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		92 2nd St	open
Bread Board Deli And Sandwich Shop	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	Avenue of Flags	open
Brick Barn Wine Estate	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		795 W Highway 246	open
Burritos Lalo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	175 McMurray Rd	open
Buscador Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		140 Industrial Way	open
California Tacos California Tacos Cantina and Distillery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	375 Avenue of the Flags	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	208 E. Highway 246	open
Casa Cassera	Winery / distillery / taproom		291 Valley Station Dr	open
Central Coast Group Project	Winery / distillery / taproom		65 Los Padres Way	open
China Panda Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	272 E Hwy 246	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	205 E Highway 246	open
Cholame Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		140 Industrial Way	open
Crawford Family Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		92 2nd St unit g	open
Demetria Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom	Chinese		open
Dragonette Cellars Dragonette Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		55 Los Padres Way	open
Eddie's Grill Eddie's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	234 E Hwy 246 #107	open
Ellen's Danish Pancake House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · European	272 Ave of Flags	open
Enjoy Bagels & Sweets Enjoy Cupcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	270 E Hwy 246	open
Esfuerzo Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom		140 Industrial Way	open
Fates' Lieutenant Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		100 Los Padres Way	open
Feather & Fire	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	180 Avenue of the Flags	open
Figueroa Mountain Brewing Co. Buellton Figueroa Mountain Brewing - Santa Barbara	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		45 Industrial Way	open
Firestone Walker Brewing Company - Barrelworks Firestone Walker Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		620 McMurray Rd	open
Gino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	383 Ave of Flags Ste E and F	open
Giorgio's at Parkway	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	265 Ave of Flags	open
God’s Country Provisions Drover's Doughnuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	252 E CA-246	open
H.p. Buellton Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		406 E Highway 246	open
Helix	Winery / distillery / taproom		140 Industrial Way	open
Hilltop Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		6725 Santa Rosa Rd	open
Imagine Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom		140 Industrial Way d2	open
Industrial Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · American	181 Industrial Way	open
Industrial Way	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		59 Industrial Way	open
Industrial Way, Buellton	Bar		Industrial Way	open
It's The Sweet Stuff	Bakery	Bakery	234 E Highway 246 Ste 108	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		250 E Highway 246	open
Janeen’s Coffee At The Cabin	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	264 E Hwy 246	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	211 E. Hwy. 246 Suite 101	open
Jonata Ranch	Winery / distillery / taproom		Rancho San Antonio, 2051 Jonata Park Rd	open
Jonata Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		73 Thomas Rd	open
Kalyra Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		140 Industrial Way	open
Ken Brown Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		157 W Hwy 246	open
La Botte Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	225 McMurray Rd	open
La Fond Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
La Tequila \| Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	35 W Hwy 246	open
Lafond Winery and Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		6855 Santa Rosa Rd	open
Lavender Oak Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		9450 Santa Rosa Rd	open
Liquid Farm Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		65 Los Padres Way #4	open
Little King Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	290 Valley Station Dr	open
Lucas & Lewellen Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		132 Easy St Ste B	open
Luna Hart Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		84 Industrial Way	open
Margerum Wine Company Margerum Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		59 Industrial Way	open
Mariscos La Rancherita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood	375 Avenue Of The Flags	open
Martellotto Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		100 Los Padres Way Ste 7	open
McClain Cellars McClain Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		283 Pamela Wy Suite 104	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · Breakfast	337 Mcmurray Rd	open
Morrell's Farm Fresh Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	American	225 McMurray Rd UNIT E	open
Mother Hubbard's Restaurant	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	373 Avenue of Flags	open
Na Na Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	225 McMurray Rd	open
Panda Express	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	211 E CA-246	open
Pattibakes	Bakery	Bakery	240 E Highway 246 Ste 109	open
Peake Ranch	Winery / distillery / taproom		7290 Santa Rosa Rd	open
Pence Vineyards & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1909 W Highway 246	open
Quinta Santa Rosa Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		6800 Santa Rosa Rd	open
Rancho Lavina Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		7250 Santa Rosa Rd	open
Rivahil Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		90 Easy St	open
Roark Wine Co	Winery / distillery / taproom		84 Industrial Way Ste C	open
Rudy's Mexican Restaurant Rudy's Restaurant Buellton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	234 E Hwy 246	open
Sanford Winery Sanford Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		7250 Santa Rosa Rd	open
Sanford Winery and Vineyard Sanford Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar			open
Santa Barbara Wine Country	Winery / distillery / taproom		140 West Highway 246, #1059	open
Sapien Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		90 Easy St	open
Section Wines Section Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		65 Los Padres Way	open
Sevtap Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		100 Los Padres Way	open
Sideways Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		114 E Hwy 246 #9724	open
Solvang Bakery	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee · American	252 E CA-246	open
Standing Sun Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		92 2nd St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	222 E Highway 246	open
Starting Gate Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee	555 Mcmurray Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	270 East Highway 246 Unit 103	open
SY Valley Spirits	Winery / distillery / taproom		233 Valley Dairy Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	191 E Highway 246	open
Taco Roco Taco Roco Central Coast	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	245 Ave of Flags	open
Tensley Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		100 Los Padres Way	open
Terravant Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		70 Industrial Way	open
Terravant Winery Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		35 Industrial Way	open
The Habit Burger Grill The Habit Burger Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	205 E Hwy 246	open
The Hitching Post Ii	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		406 E Highway 246	open
The Tavern at Zaca Creek	Bar	Steakhouse · American	1297 Jonata Park Rd	open
Tierra Y Vino	Winery / distillery / taproom		140 Industrial Way	open
Tomi Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		140 Industrial Way # D2	open
Toños Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	501 Ave of Flags	open
Vega Vineyard and Farm	Winery / distillery / taproom		9496 Santa Rosa Rd	open
Westerly Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		90 Easy St	open
Wine Country Tours - Santa Ynez Valley	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		322 CA-246	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	234 E. Highway 246	open
Zaca Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	240 E Hwy 246	open
Barbieri Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		100 Los Padres Way	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	18	17	11	5	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	21	20	14	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	18	16	10	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	17	17	11	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	21	21	11	9	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	22	22	14	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	23	23	15	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	21	21	13	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	26	24	15	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	20	19	10	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	25	22	12	8	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	24	22	11	8	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	25	22	10	9	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	26	23	12	8	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	23	21	10	8	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	23	21	9	8	4	1	NAICS2012
2014	22	21	9	8	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	23	22	9	8	5	—	NAICS2012
2016	25	24	10	9	5	—	NAICS2012
2017	27	27	10	13	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	28	27	10	14	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	31	29	11	13	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	31	30	10	14	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	37	33	15	13	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	31	13	13	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	34	32	15	12	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 93427. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.