BMIE Market 93440

Santa Barbara County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,185 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±475 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	542 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±175 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,058 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	743 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,167 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,259 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	58.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,882 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,104 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$831,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±75,098 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	44.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 93440
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.58) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	91 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 93440. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.58, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	46.0	46	40%	+18.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.8	54	35%	+18.8
Market Momentum Score	91.3	91	25%	+22.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,185	35	40%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	79,167	61	40%	+24.4
Households (ACS)	542	38	20%	+7.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	50.6	9	25%	+2.4
Population (ACS)	1,185	35	20%	+7.0
Median household income (ACS)	79,167	61	20%	+12.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+45.1
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	200	93	20%	+18.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · French 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Winery / distillery / taproom 13 · Bar 9 · Café 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Tribute to Grace Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		490 Bell St	open
Babi's Beer Emporium	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		380 Bell St	open
Bedford Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		448 Bell St	open
Bell's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · American	406 Bell St	open
Bob's Well Bread Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	550 Bell St	open
Bodega Los Alamos	Bar		273 Bell St	open
CASA DUMETZ WINES at BABI's TASTING ROOM	Bar		448 Bell Street. Suite B	open
Charlie's Restaurant Charlie's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers · American · German / Eastern European	185 Bell St	open
Frequency Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		448 Bell St	open
Full Of Life Flatbread	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Pizza	225 Bell St	open
GENERAL STORE	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	458 Bell St	open
Kendal Jackson Vineyards of Santa Barbara	Winery / distillery / taproom		8684 Bell St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	Bell Street	open
Lo-Fi Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		448 Bell St	open
Los Alamos Coffee and Tea	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	315 Bell St	open
Los Alamos Depot Bar	Bar		515 Bell St	open
Los Alamos Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2265 State Rte 135	open
Los Alamos Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		2265 Highway 135	open
Lumen Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		458 Bell St	open
Martian Ranch & Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		9110 Alisos Canyon Road	open
Municipal Winemakers	Winery / distillery / taproom		425 Bell St	open
Norman at the Skyview Los Alamos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	9150 US-101	open
Plenty on Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	508 Bell St	open
Priedite BBQ (Bi-Weekly Pop Up)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	406 Bell St	open
Shokrian Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		7910 Cat Canyon Road	open
Skyview Norman Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	615 Bell St	open
The Caliterranean Cafe	Café	Coffee	380 Bell St	open
The Maker's Son	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	346 Bell St	open
The Station Los Alamos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		346 Bell St	open
Thompson Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		Alisos Canyon Rd	open
Valle Fresh	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	380 Bell St, Los Alamos, CA 93440	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	3	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	5	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	5	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	5	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 93440. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.