BMIE Market 93441

Santa Barbara County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,134 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±229 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	499 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±102 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,530 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	574 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$142,760 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±46,745 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	58.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,194 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,960 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,503,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±169,090 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	38.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 93441
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	32.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+166.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.77) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	94 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 93441. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.77, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	59.1	59	40%	+23.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.7	60	35%	+20.9
Market Momentum Score	93.6	94	25%	+23.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,134	34	40%	+13.7
Median household income (ACS)	142,760	95	40%	+38.1
Households (ACS)	499	37	20%	+7.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	70.6	6	25%	+1.6
Population (ACS)	1,134	34	20%	+6.8
Median household income (ACS)	142,760	95	20%	+19.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+48.0
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	166.7	90	20%	+18.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (84)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · American 2 · Bakery 2 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 64 · Bar 33 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alexander & Wayne Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom		2922 Grand Ave	open
Andrew Murray Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		2901 Grand Ave	open
Arthur Earl Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		2922 Grand Ave	open
Artisan Excursion Wine Tours	Winery / distillery / taproom		2880 Grand Ave Ste B	open
Artiste Winery & Gallery	Winery / distillery / taproom		2948 Grand Ave Ste E	open
Bar Le Côte	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	2375 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Barbieri & Kempe Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		2369 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Beckmen Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		2670 Ontiveros Rd	open
Bien Nacido & Solomon Hills Estates Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom		2963 Grand Ave	open
Blair Fox Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		2477 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Brewer-Clifton Tasting Room	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		2367 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Ca' Del Grevino Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom		2933 Grand Ave	open
Carhartt Family Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2939 Grand Ave	open
Carucci Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2923 Grand Ave Suite A	open
Cinque Stelle	Winery / distillery / taproom		2982 Grand Ave	open
Consilience	Winery / distillery / taproom		2923 Grand Ave	open
Coquelicot Estate Vineyard Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2884 Grand Ave	open
Corner House Coffee	Coffee shop · Winery / distillery / taproom · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2902 Grand Ave	open
Crawford Family Wines	Bar		2477 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
DaFoe Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2901 Grand Ave	open
Daniel Gehrs Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		2939 Grand Ave	open
Demetria Estate and Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		6701 Foxen Canyon Rd	open
Demetria Estate Winery Po	Winery / distillery / taproom		6701 Foxen Cp Rd	open
Doggy Door	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Hot dogs	2448 Alamo Pintado	open
Donnachadh Family Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		Donnachadh Tasting Room 2938 San Marcos Avenue	open
Dragonette Cellars Dragonette Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		2445 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Dreamcôte Wine Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2933 San Marcos Ave	open
Enjoy Cupcakes	Bakery	Bakery	2971 Grand Ave	open
Epiphany Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2974 Grand Ave	open
Evan’s Ranch Wine Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom		2901 Grand Ave	open
F2	Bar		2982 Grand Ave	open
Fess Parker Winery Fess Parker Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		6200 Foxen Canyon Rd	open
Figueroa Mountain Brewery	Brewery / taproom		2446 Alamo Pintado	open
Figueroa Mountain Brewing Company Figueroa Mountain Brewing - Santa Barbara	Brewery / taproom · Bar		2363 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Firestone Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		5017 Zaca Station Rd	open
Four Brothers Wine Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom		2935 Grand Ave	open
Future Perfect Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom		2933 San Marcos Ave # 101	open
Grimm's Bluff	Winery / distillery / taproom		2445 Alamo Pintado Ave #101	open
Hideaway Wine Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom		2990 Grand Ave	open
Holus Bolus	Winery / distillery / taproom		2902 San Marcos Ave Ste B	open
J Wilkes Wines Tasting Room and Wine Education Center	Bar		2963 Grand Ave Ste A	open
Jalopy Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		2933 Grand Ave A	open
Koehler Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		5360 Foxen Canyon Rd	open
Larner Vineyard & Winery Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2900 Grand Ave	open
Lefty’s Coffee Co.	Coffee shop	Coffee	2896 San Marcos Ave	open
Liquid Farm Tasting Room & Mercantile	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2445 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Los Olivos Lemons	Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck	Juice / smoothies · Mexican	2971 Grand Ave	open
Los Olivos Tasting Room & Wine Shop	Bar		2905 Grand Ave	open
Los Olivos Wine Merchant and Cafe	Winery / distillery / taproom · Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Coffee	2879 Grand Ave	open
Los Olivos, CA	Winery / distillery / taproom · Café	Coffee	Grand Ave & Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Nella Kitchen & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2860 Grand Ave	open
Panino Panino	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	2900 Grand Ave	open
Parker Fess Ranch	Winery / distillery / taproom		2963 Grand Ave	open
Patrick's Side Street Cafe	Café	American · Italian · Coffee	2375 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Petros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	2860 Grand Ave	open
Petros Winery Petros Restaurant	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3360 Foxen Canyon Rd	open
Presquile Winery Tasting Room	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2369 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Prodigal Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		2880 Grand Ave	open
Qupe Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2963 Grand Ave	open
Refugio Ranch Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2990 Grand Ave	open
S&M Wine Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2933 Grand Ave	open
Saarloos and Sons	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2971 Grand Ave	open
SAMsARA Wine Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2446 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Sides Hardware & Shoes	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2375 Alamo Pintado	open
Slouch Hat Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		2446 Alamo Pintado Ave Ste b	open
Solminer Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		2890 Grand Ave	open
St. Avalo Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		2963 Grand Ave	open
Stolpman Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2434 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Storm Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		2948 San Marcos Ave	open
Story of Soil	Winery / distillery / taproom		2928 San Marcos Ave	open
Taste of Santa Rita Hills	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2923 Grand Ave	open
Tensley Wine Co	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2900 Grand Ave	open
tercero wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		2445 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
The Bubble Shack	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2970 Grand Ave	open
The Other Room	Bar		2446 Alamo Pintado Ave	open
Tin City Cider Co.	Bar		2362 Alamo Pintado	open
Toretti Family Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		2920 Grand Ave unit c	open
TREAD Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		6905 Foxen Canyon Rd	open
Waylan Wine Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom		2963 Grand Ave	open
Wine Cask	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2860 Grand Ave	open
Zaca Mesa Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		5360 Foxen Canyon Rd	open
Zaca Mesa Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		5360 Foxen Canyon Rd	open
Zaca Mesa Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		6905 Foxen Canyon Rd	open
Palmina Los Olivos	Winery / distillery / taproom		2982 Grand Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	5	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	5	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	5	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	6	5	2	1	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	8	4	—	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	8	4	—	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	8	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	6	4	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	12	8	5	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	14	8	5	—	—	5	NAICS2022
2023	13	8	5	—	—	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 93441. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.