BMIE Market 93460
Santa Barbara County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 6,039 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±967 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 2,208 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±253 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 5,255 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 2,394 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $114,139 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,742 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 42.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,119 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,089 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $1,205,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±100,114 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 220.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 93460 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 17.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +87.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +87.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 17 (range 15–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.61) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 57 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 93460. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.61, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 73.2 | 73 | 40% | +29.3 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 60.7 | 61 | 35% | +21.2 |
| Market Momentum Score | 56.8 | 57 | 25% | +14.2 |
Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 6,039 | 63 | 40% | +25.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 114,139 | 88 | 40% | +35.3 |
| Households (ACS) | 2,208 | 62 | 20% | +12.5 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 25 | 67 | 35% | +23.6 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 24.8 | 27 | 25% | +6.7 |
| Population (ACS) | 6,039 | 63 | 20% | +12.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 114,139 | 88 | 20% | +17.7 |
Market Momentum Score: 57 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 0 | 42 | 50% | +20.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 25 | 67 | 30% | +20.2 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 87.5 | 79 | 20% | +15.7 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (59)
By cuisine
Coffee 7 · American 3 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1
By type
Winery / distillery / taproom 34 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bar 17 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Café 3 · Other 2 · Bakery 1 · Fast casual 1 · Quick service 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artisan Excursion Wine Tours | Winery / distillery / taproom | 3564 Sagunto St | open | |
| Artiste Winery and Tasting Studio | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 1095A Edison St | open | |
| Baehner Fournier Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 2840 Montecielo Rd | open | |
| Big Toms Backyard Barbecue | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3687 Sagunto St | open | |
| Brave & Maiden Estate | Winery / distillery / taproom | 649 N Refugio Rd | open | |
| Bridlewood Estate Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 3555 Roblar Ave | open | |
| Brothers Restaurant at the Red Barn | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Steakhouse | 3539 Sagunto St | open |
| Burger Barn | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 3621 Sagunto St | open |
| Carr Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 3563 Numancia St #101 | open | |
| Center Bar | Bar | 3400 Mission Dr | open | |
| Chumash Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 3400 E Highway 246 | open |
| CrossHatch Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 1090 Edison St # 104 | open | |
| Crown Point Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 1733 Fletcher Way | open | |
| Dos Carlitos Restaurant and Tequila Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 3544 Sagunto St | open |
| Eleven Wine Lounge | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3640 Sagunto St | open | |
| Ellie's Tap & Vine | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 3640 Sagunto St | open |
| Estrella Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2178 Mora Ave | open | |
| Gainey Estate Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 3950 E Highway 246 | open | |
| Grassini Family Vineyards and Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5775 Genuine Risk Rd | open | |
| Great Oaks Ranch | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2450 Calzada Ave | open | |
| Happy Canyon Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5050 Happy Canyon Rd | open | |
| Imagine Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 3681 Sagunto St | open | |
| Kalyra Wineries | Winery / distillery / taproom | 343 N Refugio Rd | open | |
| Longhorn Coffee Shop & Bakery | Coffee shop · Bakery | Coffee · Breakfast · Bakery | 3687 Sagunto St | open |
| Maverick Saloon | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 3687 Sagunto St | open | |
| McKinney Family Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 1575 Edison St | open | |
| Meadowlark Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 49 Meadowlark Rd | open | |
| Panino Panino | Other · Fast casual · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls | 3569 Sagunto St | open |
| Pizza Shack Mary's Pizza Shack | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3521 Numancia St | open |
| Pony Espresso | Bar · Coffee shop | Coffee | 3558 Sagunto St | open |
| Queen Cup Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 1095 Meadowvale Rd | open |
| Rancho Mora | Bar | 2050 Mora Ave | open | |
| Roblar Winery & Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | 2121 San Marcos Pass Rd | open | |
| S.Y. Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 1110 Faraday St | open |
| Santa Barbara County Vintners | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 3669 Sagunto St | open | |
| Santa Yenz Valley Wine Club | Winery / distillery / taproom | open | ||
| Santa Ynez Billiards & Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | Coffee | 1000 Edison St | open |
| Santa Ynez Burrito | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 1051 Edison St | open |
| Santa Ynez Indian Reservation | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian | 3410 E Highway 246 | open |
| Santa Ynez Ranch | Winery / distillery / taproom | 3555 Roblar Ave | open | |
| Santa Ynez Valley Wine Tasting | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | open | ||
| Santa Ynez wine country | Winery / distillery / taproom | open | ||
| Sogno del Fiore | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2045 N Refugio Rd | open | |
| Star Lane Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 2121 Alisos Rd | open | |
| Star Lane Vineyard & Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2121 Alisos Ave | open | |
| Sunstone Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 125 N Refugio Rd | open | |
| Tantara Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 4190 Casey Ave | open | |
| The Baker's Table | Café | Coffee | 3570 Sagunto St | open |
| The Brander Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 2401 N Refugio Rd | open | |
| The Lucky Hen Larder | Other | Sandwiches | 1095 Meadowvale Rd | open |
| The Victor Restaurant and Bar | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 3631 Sagunto St | open | |
| The Willows | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · Seafood · American | 3400 CA-246 | open |
| Trattoria Grappolo | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 3687 Sagunto St | open |
| Turning Tide Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom | 3555-B Roblar Ave | open | |
| Two Wolves Wine | Winery / distillery / taproom | 1480 Count Fleet St | open | |
| Valley Grind | Coffee shop | Coffee | 3558 Sagunto St | open |
| Vie Caprice Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 1617 N Refugio Rd | open | |
| Vincent Vineyards and Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2370 N Refugio Rd | open | |
| Vogelzang Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5725 Happy Canyon Rd | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 10 | 8 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 9 | 7 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 8 | 7 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 9 | 8 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 2 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 7 | 6 | 5 | — | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 9 | 8 | 7 | — | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 8 | 8 | 7 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 4 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 19 | 16 | 10 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 4 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
Nearby markets (within 5 miles)
None within 5 miles.