BMIE Market 93463

Santa Barbara County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,130 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±432 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,535 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±334 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,646 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,589 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$118,488 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,129 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,758 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±170 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,114,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±76,490 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	33.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	41 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 93463
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	35.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+13.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+24.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+41.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+32.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	46 (range 42–50) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.75) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 93463. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.75, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.9	77	40%	+30.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.1	57	35%	+20.0
Market Momentum Score	67.7	68	25%	+16.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,130	68	40%	+27.1
Median household income (ACS)	118,488	90	40%	+35.9
Households (ACS)	3,535	69	20%	+13.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	24.2	66	35%	+23.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	50.4	10	25%	+2.4
Population (ACS)	8,130	68	20%	+13.5
Median household income (ACS)	118,488	90	20%	+18.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	13.9	72	50%	+35.9
10-year restaurant growth	24.2	66	30%	+19.9
20-year restaurant growth	41.4	59	20%	+11.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (136)

By cuisine

Coffee 20 · Dessert 17 · American 15 · Bakery 11 · European 9 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 7 · Italian 7 · Breakfast 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 4 · Mexican 4 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · British / Irish pub food 2 · German / Eastern European 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mediterranean 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 44 · Winery / distillery / taproom 44 · Bar 29 · Dessert 23 · Café 15 · Bakery 12 · Coffee shop 11 · Casual dining 7 · Quick service 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Actor's Corner Café	Café	Coffee	443 2nd St	open
Alisal Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	446 Alisal Rd Ste 5	open
Alma Rosa Winery and Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1623 Mission Dr Ste M	open
Aly's Restaurant	Dessert · Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Dessert · Healthy / salads / bowls · French	451 2nd St	open
Apl Wines Llc	Winery / distillery / taproom		1603 Copenhagen Dr Ste 7	open
Arrowsmith's Wine Bar	Bar		1539 Mission Dr Ste C	open
Belgian Cafe	Café	Coffee · European	1671 Copenhagen Dr	open
Birkholm's Bakery & Cafe	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	460 Alisal Rd	open
Bit O' Denmark	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European · American · German / Eastern European	473 Alisal Rd	open
Blackjack Ranch	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2205 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
Bob's Well Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	2449 Baseline Ave	open
brekkies by chomp	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Breakfast · Coffee	1655 Mission Dr	open
Buttonwood Farm Winery and Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		1500 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
Cafe Angelica	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	490 1st St	open
Cafe Dolce	Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	475 1st St Ste 3	open
Cafe Esko	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Coffee · Bakery	1642 Copenhagen Dr	open
Cali Love Wine	Bar		1651 Copenhagen Dr	open
California Tacos Cantina and Distillery California Tacos Cantina and Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom	Mexican	606 Alamo Pintado Rd Ste 5	open
CaliPaso Tasting Room Solvang CaliPaso Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		482 1st St	open
Campo Del Sol	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1557 Mission Dr	open
Carhartt Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1691 Rancho Santa Ynez Rd	open
Casa Cassara Winery and Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1607 Mission Dr #112	open
Cecco Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	475 1st St	open
Chomp	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1693 Mission Dr	open
Clean Slate Wine Bar	Bar		448 Atterdag Rd	open
Coast Range	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		1635 Mission Dr	open
Coffee, Pastries and me	Coffee shop	Coffee	1825 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
Copenhagen Sausage Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European	1660 Copenhagen Dr	open
Craft House At Corque	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	420 Alisal Rd	open
Crawford Family Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		1661 Mission Dr	open
CrossHatch Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1090 Edison Street, #104	open
Crudo Solvang	Restaurant (service type not stated)		435 Alisal Rd	open
D'Alfonso & Curran Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		1557 Mission Dr	open
Danish Mill Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1682 Copenhagen Dr	open
Dansk Bageri Kafe Og Conditori	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	460 Alisal Rd	open
Dascomb Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1623 Mission Dr Ste E	open
Dierberg Starlane Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		595 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	1655 Mission Drive	open
Don Nacho's Cafe	Café	Mexican · Latin American (other) · Coffee	446 Alisal Rd Ste # 5	open
Downey's Candy World	Dessert	Dessert	1693 Copenhagen Dr	open
Draughtsmen Aleworks	Brewery / taproom		1631 Mission St	open
Drover's Doughnuts & Cafe Drover's Doughnuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee	484 1st St	open
El rinconsito market	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Bakery	Bakery	1656 Fir Ave	open
Feliz Noche Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		473 Atterdag Rd	open
First & Oak	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	409 1st St	open
Fitzpatrick's Tavern	Bar	British / Irish pub food	490 1st St	open
Foxen Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Fresco Valley Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	442 Atterdag Rd	open
Good Seed Coffee Boutique	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1607 Mission Dr	open
Greenhouse Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European	487 Atterdag Rd	open
Hawaiian Shaved Ice Co	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1604A Copenhagen Dr	open
Heidelberg Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	1618 Copenhagen Dr	open
High Roller Tiki Lounge	Bar		433 Alisal Rd	open
Holy Grounds Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1825 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
Honea Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		2201 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
Hummingbird Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	453 Atterdag Rd	open
Hygge Boba Tea and Smoothies	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies	1665 Copenhagen Dr	open
Ingeborg's Danish Chocolates ingeborg shoes	Dessert	Dessert	1679 Copenhagen Dr	open
Joy Café	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Healthy / salads / bowls	1623 Mission Dr Ste H	open
Juice Ranch Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	1607 Mission Dr Ste 102	open
Kaerskov Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
KANOK Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	435 Alisal Rd	open
Kimsey Vineyard Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
L'angolino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	606 Alamo Pintado Rd Ste 1	open
La Encantada Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		690 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
La Presa Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2202 Hill Haven Rd	open
Larner Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		955 Ballard Canyon Rd	open
Leonardo's Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	229 3rd St	open
Leonardo's Ristorante Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	632 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
Lincourt Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1711 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
Little Denmark, Solvang CA	Bar	British / Irish pub food		open
Lost Point	Bar		436 Alisal Rd	open
Lucas & Lewellen Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1645 Copenhagen Dr	open
Lucky Dogg	Winery / distillery / taproom		1607 Mission Dr Ste 102	open
Mad & Vin	Casual dining · Bar		1576 Mission Dr	open
McClain Cellars McClain Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1623 Mission Dr Ste B	open
Mortensen's Danish Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1588 Mission Dr	open
Munchies Sweets & Treats	Dessert		475 1st St	open
Old Danish Fudge Kitchen	Dessert	Dessert	441 Alisal Rd	open
Olsen's Danish Village Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1529 Mission Dr	open
Osteria Grappolo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Italian · European	1546 Mission Dr	open
Paige 23 Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1251 Quail Ridge Rd	open
Palmina Wines Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom		475 1st St Ste 5	open
PANINO Solvang Panino	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Italian · Sandwiches	475 1st St	open
Paula's Pancake House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	1531 Mission Dr	open
Peasants Deli and Arcade	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	473 Atterdag Rd #104	open
peasants FEAST	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	487 Atterdag Rd	open
Petros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	487 Atterdag Rd	open
Piazza Family Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		2825 Tapadero Rd	open
Popcorn And Pints	Other · Dessert · Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Dessert	1547 Mission Dr	open
Presido Vineyard And Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1603 Copenhagen Dr	open
Ramen Kotori	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	1618 Copenhagen Dr	open
Rancho Boa Vista LLC	Winery / distillery / taproom		1090 Arroyo Mesa Rd	open
Randy's Taproom	Bar		1525 Mission Dr	open
Red Viking Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European · American	1684 Copenhagen Dr	open
Rideau Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		1562 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory	Dessert	Dessert	1655 Copenhagen Dr	open
Root 246	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	420 Alisal Rd	open
Rooted Vine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		1693 Mission Dr Suite C-1	open
Rusack Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1819 Ballard Canyon Rd	open
S a N O P E C a D O	Restaurant (service type not stated)		446 Alisal Rd	open
Sanger Wines Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1584 Mission Dr	open
Santa Ynez Cafe , Solvang CA	Coffee shop	American · Mediterranean · Coffee	606 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
Sevtap Winery Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom		473 Atterdag Rd # 102	open
Silk Road’s Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	453 Atterdag Rd	open
Sogno del Fiore Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1232 Petersen Ave	open
Solvang Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	1680 Misson	open
Solvang Flavors	Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Breakfast	436 Alisal Rd	open
Solvang Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1588 Mission Dr	open
Solvang Restaurant	Casual dining	American · European	1672 Copenhagen Dr	open
Solvang Trolley Ice Cream Parlor	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1620 Copenhagen Dr	open
Solvang Wine & Beer Tasting	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar		485 Alisal Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1641 Mission Dr Suite 102	open
Succulent Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	1557 Mission Dr	open
Sugarland Candy	Dessert	Dessert	446 Alisal Rd	open
Swedish Candy Factory	Dessert	Dessert	485 Alisal Rd #125	open
Taco Roco	Restaurant (service type not stated)		606 Alamo Pintado Rd	open
Tastes Of The Valleys	Winery / distillery / taproom		1672 Mission Dr	open
Tecolotes Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	281 5th St	open
The BackRoom	Bar		515 4th Pl	open
The Big Bopper Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1510 Mission Dr	open
The Coffee House by CHOMP	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1693 Mission Dr D103	open
The Olive House: Home of Twenty Mile Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom		1603 Copenhagen Dr	open
The Solvang Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	438 Alisal Rd	open
Tierra Y Vino Llc	Winery / distillery / taproom		339 Alisal Rd	open
Toccata Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1650 Copenhagen Dr	open
Toscana Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	485 Alisal Rd	open
Vaquero Bar	Bar		1635 Mission Dr	open
Via Gelateria	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1623 Mission Dr	open
Viking Garden Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Café · Dessert	Coffee · European · Dessert	448 Alisal Rd	open
Viking Garden Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European	446 Alisal Rd	open
Viking Tower Pizza	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza	436 Alisal Rd	open
Wandering Dog	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1539 Mission Dr	open
Whiskeynryebbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	442 Atterdag Rd	open
Windmill Ranch And Vineyard. Saarloos And Sons Syrah	Winery / distillery / taproom		2822 Ballard Canyon Rd	open
Royal Oaks Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1541 Copenhagen	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	32	31	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	29	28	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	32	32	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	33	33	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	35	35	20	8	7	—	NAICS1997
1999	35	34	19	7	8	1	NAICS1997
2000	39	38	19	7	12	1	NAICS1997
2001	31	30	17	6	7	1	NAICS1997
2002	28	28	18	2	8	—	NAICS1997
2003	31	29	19	4	6	—	NAICS2002
2004	32	31	19	5	7	—	NAICS2002
2005	29	28	17	4	7	—	NAICS2002
2006	30	26	14	4	8	2	NAICS2002
2007	33	30	15	5	10	3	NAICS2002
2008	31	29	18	3	8	2	NAICS2007
2009	28	27	18	3	6	1	NAICS2007
2010	29	27	17	3	7	2	NAICS2007
2011	35	34	21	5	8	1	NAICS2007
2012	34	32	17	7	8	2	NAICS2012
2013	35	33	17	6	10	2	NAICS2012
2014	37	34	18	7	9	3	NAICS2012
2015	37	34	19	8	7	2	NAICS2012
2016	40	37	22	8	7	2	NAICS2012
2017	38	35	19	10	6	3	NAICS2017
2018	39	36	19	10	7	3	NAICS2017
2019	39	36	17	10	9	—	NAICS2017
2020	40	37	18	9	10	3	NAICS2017
2021	44	40	19	10	11	4	NAICS2017
2022	54	45	23	11	10	8	NAICS2022
2023	50	41	21	11	8	7	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 93463. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.