BMIE Market 94158

San Francisco County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,314 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±776 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,861 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±398 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,792 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,482 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$196,506 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±56,832 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	32.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,429,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±245,476 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	0.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94158
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+188.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+2,500.0% DERIVED: 2004 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	35 (range 32–38) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.9 per year, r² 0.95) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	94 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94158. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.95, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.3	83	40%	+33.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75.5	75	35%	+26.4
Market Momentum Score	93.9	94	25%	+23.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,314	73	40%	+29.0
Median household income (ACS)	196,506	99	40%	+39.5
Households (ACS)	4,861	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	188.9	96	35%	+33.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	23.0	30	25%	+7.6
Population (ACS)	11,314	73	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	196,506	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 94 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	62.5	93	50%	+57.9
10-year restaurant growth	188.9	96	30%	+36.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (93)

By cuisine

Coffee 20 · American 10 · Asian 5 · Bakery 5 · Mexican 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Dessert 4 · Japanese 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Pizza 4 · Burgers 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Italian 3 · Mediterranean 3 · Tea / bubble tea 3 · Halal / kosher 2 · Hawaiian / Pacific 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Middle Eastern 2 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · European 1 · Filipino 1 · Korean 1 · Seafood 1 · Southeast Asian (other) 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 52 · Café 15 · Bar 12 · Coffee shop 12 · Food truck 11 · Juice, smoothie, tea 7 · Bakery 6 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 5 · Quick service 5 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
927 Reserve	Bar		500 Terry a Francois Blvd	open
Arsicault Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1070 Bridgeview Way	open
ATWater Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	295 Terry A Francois Blvd	open
Bakesale Betty	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1 Warriors Wy	open
Bakesale Betty	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	500 Terry A Francois Blvd Ste 73	open
Ballast Point: San Francisco	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	705 16th St	open
Barstool Bites	Restaurant (service type not stated)		601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Blue Bottle Coffee Blue Bottle Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	1385 4th St	open
Blue Bottle Coffee Blue Bottle Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	300 Toni Stone Crossing, STE E	open
Bowzer's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1830 3rd St	open
Bun Love	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Bunz Sandwich Shop	Quick service · Coffee shop	Sandwiches · Coffee	300 Berry St	open
Burma Love	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southeast Asian (other) · Asian	151 Warriors Way	open
Cafe Réveille Cafe Reveille	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	610 Long Bridge St	open
Caffe Central	Café	Coffee	490 Illinois St	open
Caffe Terzetto	Café	Coffee	550 Gene Friend Way	open
Carla's Cafe & Brunch Bistro	Café	Coffee	500 Terry A Francois Blvd	open
Casey's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	1170 4th St	open
Cavaña	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	100 Channel St 17th Floor	open
Chase Lounge	Bar		1 Warriors Way	open
Che Fico Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1 Warriors Way	open
Chef’s Truck	Food truck	Mexican	1379 4th St	open
Death By Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	301 King St	open
Dumpling Time Dumpling Time	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	191 Warriors Way	open
Esposto's Delicatezza Esposto's Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian · European	1700 Owens St	open
Eva’s Catering	Food truck		555 Illinois St	open
Feast	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher	500 Terry a Francois Blvd	open
Fikscue Craft Barbeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	7 Warriors Way, Suite 208	open
Firepie	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1379 4th St	open
Firetrail Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	601 Mission Bay Blvd North	open
Golden Bear Restaurant Company Iii Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		817 Terry a Francois Blvd	open
Gott's Roadside Gott's Roadside	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	151 Warriors Wy Ste 102	open
Gyros On Wheels	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Happy Lemon Happy Lemon San Jose Blossom Valley	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	1320 4th St	open
Harmonic Brewing Thrive City	Brewery / taproom		7 Warriors Wy Ste 206	open
Hookt Doughnuts	Dessert	Dessert	1379 4th St	open
JOE & THE JUICE	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1155 4th Street	open
Kafae Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Koja Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Korean · Japanese	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Korean Feast	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Halal / kosher	500 Terry A Francois Blvd	open
La Corneta	Food truck		1 Warriors Way	open
Little Creatures	Brewery / taproom		1000 3rd St	open
Lrico Services D209	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		401 Terry A Francois Blvd	open
Magical Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	1379 4th St	open
Marley's Streats	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Mezli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Miller & Lux Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	700 Terry A Francois Blvd	open
Mission Bay Wine Bar	Bar		640 Terry a Francois Blvd	open
Mission Rock Resort	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	817 Terry A Francois Blvd	open
Modelo Cantina	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Warriors Way	open
Mora Taco Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican · Latin American (other)	601 Mission Bay Blvd North	open
Nucha Empanadas	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	601 Mission Bay Blvd North	open
Oda Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1500 Owens St Ste 100	open
Panera Bread	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	301 King St	open
Peasant Pies, Mission Bay Peasant Pies Cafe & Catering	Bakery · Quick service · Café	Bakery · Coffee	550 Gene Friend Wy	open
Philz Coffee Philz Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	1 Warriors Way, 16th St Office Tower #9	open
Philz Coffee Philz Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	201 Berry St	open
Plentea Plentea	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	1515 3rd St	open
Poke Delish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Poke Life	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Seafood · Japanese · Healthy / salads / bowls	1700 Owens St	open
Powder	Food truck		601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Proper Food Proper Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	588 Mission Bay Blvd North	open
Publico Urban Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	550A Gene Friend Wy	open
Ramp Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	855 Terry Francois St	open
Rasa Rasa Rasa Rasa Singapore	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea	Asian · Juice / smoothies	1379 4th St	open
Roadside Rotisserie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Rootwater Kava Bar	Bar		464 3rd St	open
Señor Sisig Señor Sisig	Food truck	Filipino · Asian	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
SF Kebab	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	550 16th St	open
Somi Somi SomiSomi	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	1350 4th St	open
Spark Social SF	Food truck		601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Spro - Mission Bay/soma	Coffee shop	Coffee	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1375 3rd St	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1700 Owens St	open
STEM Kitchen and Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	499 Illinois St	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	550B Gene Friend Way	open
Taproot Eatery	Café	Coffee	409 Illinois St	open
Taqueria San Marcos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
The Baked Bear	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	680 Terry A. Francois Blvd	open
The Noisy Fig	Restaurant (service type not stated)		601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
The Venue	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	1500 Owens St	open
Thrive City	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Warriors Way	open
Tony G	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1 Warriors Way	open
Torraku Ramen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Japanese	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Trevino Wine Bar	Bar		100 Channel St	open
Tsunami	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	301 King St	open
Upper Cut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Virtual Teakup	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
WH 42	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Sandwiches	601 Mission Bay Blvd North	open
Wicked Star	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck · Bar		601 Mission Bay Blvd N	open
Aroy Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	601 Mission Bay Blvd N	closed
Kabob Trolley	Food truck		601 Mission Bay Blvd N	closed
Native Baking Company	Dessert	Dessert	1 Warriors Way	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2004	2	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	3	1	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	3	1	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	4	2	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	4	2	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	8	3	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	4	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	10	4	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	19	15	6	5	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	21	16	6	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	26	19	6	8	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	29	19	5	8	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	42	20	6	7	7	—	NAICS2017
2022	51	26	7	10	9	—	NAICS2022
2023	50	26	7	9	10	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94158. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94107	1.1 mi	126	2023
94103	1.3 mi	222	2023
94105	1.3 mi	110	2023
94104	1.5 mi	64	2023
94108	1.7 mi	138	2023
94102	1.8 mi	213	2023
94111	1.9 mi	117	2023
94110	2.1 mi	330	2023
94188	2.2 mi	1	2016
94133	2.4 mi	200	2023
94109	2.4 mi	224	2023
94114	2.8 mi	140	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.