BMIE Market 94517

Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,316 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±446 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,511 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±266 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,385 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,662 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$168,921 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,092 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,032,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39,653 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	47.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94517
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+18.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 10–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	61 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94517. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.1	83	40%	+33.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.2	70	35%	+24.6
Market Momentum Score	61.5	61	25%	+15.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,316	74	40%	+29.5
Median household income (ACS)	168,921	98	40%	+39.1
Households (ACS)	4,511	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	35%	+18.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.6	70	25%	+17.5
Population (ACS)	12,316	74	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	168,921	98	20%	+19.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	18.2	76	50%	+38.0
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	30%	+15.8
20-year restaurant growth	8.3	39	20%	+7.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 5 · Italian 4 · Pizza 4 · Latin American (other) 3 · Asian 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 5 · Quick service 5 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Plus Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1026 Oak St Ste 103	open
Canesa's Brooklyn Heros	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6026 Main St	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	1530 KIRKER PASS ROAD	open
Casa De Fossan	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		6069 Marsh Creek Road	open
Clayton Club Saloon	Casual dining · Bar		6096 Main St	open
Country Waffles Country Waffles - Antioch, CA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	5435 Clayton Rd Ste b	open
Cup O' Jo	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	6054 Main St	open
Curry Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	5435 Clayton Rd	open
Ed's Mudville Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	6200 Center St	open
Freewheel Pizza Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5433 Clayton Rd Suite A-1	open
Groveside Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6101 Center St	open
La Chata Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5415 Clayton Rd	open
La Veranda Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Coffee	6201 Center St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5433 Clayton Rd Ste L	open
Moresi's Chophouse	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	6115 Main St	open
Ñ (Enye) Latin Table	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	1026 Oak St	open
Papa Murphy's \| Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5433 Clayton Road, Suite H	open
Pavilion Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	1508 Kirker Pass Rd	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Roadside22	Bar		5439 Clayton Rd Ste E-F	open
Sip 'n Sweet	Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	6200 Center St	open
Skipolini's Pizza Skipolini's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1033 Diablo St	open
Skylar Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6101 Center St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	1536 Kirker Pass Road Clayton Station	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1536 Kirker Pass Rd Ste C	open
Sweet Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	5435 Clayton Rd	open
The Java Club	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	6200 Center St Ste 210	open
Vinny's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	6101 Center St	open
Yummy Hawaiian BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · BBQ	5435 Clayton Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5431 Clayton Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1026 Oak St Ste 103	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	16	15	7	6	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	15	13	4	6	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	14	13	4	6	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	17	15	5	5	4	2	NAICS1997
2002	18	14	6	5	2	4	NAICS1997
2003	16	12	5	4	2	3	NAICS2002
2004	16	13	7	3	3	2	NAICS2002
2005	15	13	6	3	4	1	NAICS2002
2006	18	16	7	3	6	1	NAICS2002
2007	13	11	6	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	14	12	5	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	15	12	4	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	10	4	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	13	9	3	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	4	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	15	12	5	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	7	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	5	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	5	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	13	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	13	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94517. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94528	4.9 mi	1	2010

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.