BMIE Market 94531

Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	46,387 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,913 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	13,905 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±601 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	40,290 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,494 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$120,927 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,683 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,150 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±97 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$701,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,071 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	51 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94531
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+30.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+240.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+5,000.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	59 (range 56–63) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.7 per year, r² 0.93) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	93 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94531. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.93, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	93.1	93	40%	+37.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83.2	83	35%	+29.1
Market Momentum Score	85.5	85	25%	+21.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	46,387	96	40%	+38.4
Median household income (ACS)	120,927	91	40%	+36.3
Households (ACS)	13,905	92	20%	+18.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.0	68	25%	+17.1
Population (ACS)	46,387	96	20%	+19.2
Median household income (ACS)	120,927	91	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	30.8	84	50%	+41.8
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	240	95	20%	+19.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (92)

By cuisine

American 13 · Mexican 12 · Coffee 10 · Sandwiches 10 · Asian 8 · Bakery 7 · Burgers 7 · Chicken / wings 6 · Pizza 6 · Japanese 5 · Chinese 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Sushi 4 · Breakfast 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Dessert 3 · BBQ 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Seafood 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Vietnamese 2 · Filipino 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Peruvian 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 55 · Quick service 23 · Café 8 · Coffee shop 8 · Bakery 7 · Dessert 6 · Casual dining 4 · Bar 3 · Fast casual 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alquds Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	5019 Lone Tree Wy C	open
Angel's Diner Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5891 Lone Tree Way	open
Bagel Street Cafe Bagel Street Cafe - Blackhawk	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	4815 Lone Tree Wy C	open
Banda Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4823 Lone Tree Way	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	4620 Lone Tree Wy	open
Cafe 86 - Antioch Cafe 86 - Chino Hills	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	5865 Lone Tree Wy	open
California Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4194 Lone Tree Way	open
Carl's Jr / Green Burrito	Quick service		4186 Lone Tree Way	open
Champions Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4800 Golf Course Rd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	5705 Lone Tree Wy	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5809 Lone Tree Way	open
Closed	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	4815 Lone Tree Way Ste A	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5779 Lone Tree Wy Ste F	open
Country Waffles Country Waffles - Antioch, CA	Café	American · Coffee · Breakfast	5865 Lone Tree Way	open
Da Nang Tourane Vietnamese Restaurant Đà Nẵng Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	4393 Hillcrest Ave	open
Dad's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5887 Lone Tree Wy	open
El Burro Veloz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4815 Lone Tree Wy	open
El Caporal Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	4470 Lone Tree Wy	open
El Machete Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	4045 Lone Tree Wy	open
El Peruano	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian	2312 Crystal Ct	open
El Taco Factory	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican	1709 Petit Peak Ct	open
Foodie Crew	Food truck		4703 Lone Tree Way	open
Fresh Choice	Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	4605 Golf Course Rd	open
Gaby's Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4863 Cushendall Way	open
HD Burger & More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	5019 Lone Tree Wy A	open
Hidden Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4106 Lone Tree Way	open
Hillcrest & Wildflower Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3280 Hillcrest Ave	open
Houzofchau	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Chinese		open
India 4 U	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	5759 Lone Tree Way	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5809 Lone Tree Way	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		2705 Hillcrest Ave	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Sandwiches · Burgers	2705 Hillcrest Ave	open
Jack in the Box Jack in the Box	Quick service	Burgers · Mexican	4801 Lone Tree Way	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	5779 Lone Tree Way	open
Kabuki Sushi Kabuki Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2719 Hillcrest Ave	open
Kanpai Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5865 Lone Tree Way	open
King's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5503 Lone Tree Way	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4198 Lone Tree Way	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4649 Golf Course Rd	open
L&L Hawaiian Barbecue L&L Hawaiian BBQ - Vancouver	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · BBQ · Asian	5035 Lone Tree Wy #A	open
La Michoacanita Paleteria y neveria Antioch	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Mexican	4609 Golf Course Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	4819 Lone Tree Wy SUITE A	open
Lumpy's Diner Lumpy's Diner	Casual dining	American · Burgers · Breakfast	5891 Lone Tree Way	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	5005 Lone Tree Way	open
Mr Pickles Sandwich Shop	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	4450 Lone Tree Way	open
Mr. Pickle's Sandwich Shop Mr. Pickle's Sandwich Shops	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	4049 Lone Tree Wy	open
Muscle Maker Grill	Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls · Sandwiches	4621 Golf Course Rd	open
Naan and Kabob Bazaar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	5035 Lone Tree Wy	open
NYPD Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5891 Lone Tree Way	open
Ocean 9 Crab Cajun and Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	4250 Lone Tree Wy	open
Orale Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3421 Deer Valley Rd	open
Panama Bay Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	2745 Hillcrest Ave	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Fast casual	Bakery · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	5897 Lone Tree Way	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3345 Deer Valley Rd	open
Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5769 Lone Tree Wy	open
Popeyes Popeyes	Quick service		5019 Lone Tree Way	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5019 Lone Tree Wy	open
Qin's Asian Bistro & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	5007 Lone Tree Way	open
Quiznos	Other	Sandwiches	5019 Lone Tree Way Ste A	open
Ramen 101	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	5829 Lone Tree Way	open
Ready 4 Pick-Up	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino	4470 Buckeye Way	open
Rice Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3436 Deer Valley Rd	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	4504 Lone Tree Wy	open
Samurai Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	5007 Lone Tree Way	open
Schooner's Grille & Brewery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4250 Lone Tree Way	open
Simran Restaurant Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2709 Hillcrest Ave	open
Sizzler	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · Steakhouse	2709 Hillcrest Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3421 Deer Valley Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5779 Lone Tree Way, Slatten Ranch Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	4448 Lone Tree Way Deer Valley Plz	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	4045 Lone Tree Way Bluerock Center	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3329 Deer Valley Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5819 Lone Tree Way Suite D	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	4460 Lone Tree Way	open
T4	Juice, smoothie, tea · Delivery-focused	Tea / bubble tea	4532 Lone Tree Wy	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3445 Deer Valley Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	4346 Lone Tree Way	open
Tacos El Asador	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5503 Lone Tree Wy	open
Tailgaters Sports Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · American	4605 Golf Course Rd	open
Tao San Jin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	5867 Lone Tree Way	open
Thai Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	5019 Lone Tree Way Ste C-D	open
The Habit Burger Grill The Habit Burger Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	5829 Lone Tree Way	open
The Original Mels Diner Original Mels Diner Pinole, CA	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	4827 Lone Tree Wy	open
Togos Sandwiches TOGO'S Sandwiches	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2735 Hillcrest Ave	open
Uno Pizzeria & Grill - Antioch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4827 Lone Tree Way	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	4893 Lone Tree Way	open
Water Wheels	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4454 Lone Tree Way	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	3417 Deer Valley Road	open
Xtreme Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4045 Lone Tree Way Ste F	open
Yummy Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5005 Lone Tree Way	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	3365 Deer Valley Rd	open
Cocina Medina Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5005 Lone Tree Way	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2000	5	5	—	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	17	15	5	7	3	1	NAICS2002
2004	24	23	7	13	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	33	32	12	16	4	1	NAICS2002
2006	26	25	7	15	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	32	31	16	9	4	1	NAICS2002
2008	35	34	18	6	9	—	NAICS2007
2009	36	33	15	7	11	—	NAICS2007
2010	37	35	20	8	7	—	NAICS2007
2011	37	35	18	10	7	—	NAICS2007
2012	39	36	17	13	5	—	NAICS2012
2013	37	34	18	11	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	40	37	19	14	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	44	38	18	16	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	43	38	18	17	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	47	41	14	22	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	43	39	13	22	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	52	47	18	22	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	49	46	19	22	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	49	47	21	21	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	54	51	24	20	6	—	NAICS2022
2023	56	51	26	18	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94531. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94509	3.1 mi	86	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.