BMIE Market 94561
Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 46,368 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±590 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 14,105 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±651 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 36,515 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 12,080 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $134,678 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,614 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 36.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,952 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±184 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $659,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,401 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 17.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 33 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94561 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 6.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +26.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +57.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +120.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 37 (range 33–41) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.67) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 84 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 94 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 83 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94561. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.67, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 84 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 94.5 | 94 | 40% | +37.8 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 83.1 | 83 | 35% | +29.1 |
| Market Momentum Score | 68.4 | 68 | 25% | +17.1 |
Consumer Market Score: 94 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 46,368 | 96 | 40% | +38.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 134,678 | 94 | 40% | +37.6 |
| Households (ACS) | 14,105 | 92 | 20% | +18.5 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 83 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 26.9 | 69 | 35% | +24.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 7.1 | 84 | 25% | +21.0 |
| Population (ACS) | 46,368 | 96 | 20% | +19.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 134,678 | 94 | 20% | +18.8 |
Market Momentum Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 10 | 68 | 50% | +33.8 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 26.9 | 69 | 30% | +20.7 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 57.1 | 70 | 20% | +13.9 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (64)
By cuisine
Mexican 11 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 8 · American 7 · Coffee 6 · Pizza 6 · Sandwiches 5 · Burgers 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · Asian 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · European 1 · Filipino 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Seafood 1 · Vegetarian 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 33 · Quick service 16 · Bakery 9 · Dessert 9 · Bar 6 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 5 · Specialty food shop 3 · Other 3 · Casual dining 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Mares Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · Mexican | 200 W Cypress Rd | open |
| Ana Lucero Farias | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 200 W Cypress Rd | open | |
| Auntie Anne's | Other · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Quick service | Juice / smoothies · Dessert | 5433 Neroly Rd | open |
| Baskin-Robbins™ Baskin-Robbins | Dessert · Bar | Dessert | 990 Laurel Road | open |
| Bistro Punahele Tonnelier | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · European | 3530 Main St | open |
| Black Bear Diner Black Bear Diner | Casual dining | American | 3201 Main St | open |
| Buon Appetito | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 3070 Main St | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2505 Main Street | open |
| Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr. | Quick service | Burgers · American | 915 Main St | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle | Quick service | 990 Laurel Rd | open | |
| Chrome Coffee Oakley Shop | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 3350 Main St | open |
| Dabarkads Filipino Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Filipino | 3587 Main St | open |
| Dee's Cake Pops | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 1750 Port Way | open |
| Deli-Cious Chicken | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 3400 Main St | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 4530 Main St | open |
| Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 1092 Main St | open |
| Farmhouse Sweets | Bakery | Bakery | 3840 Brown Rd | open |
| Giant Donuts | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café | Dessert · Coffee | Cypress Shopping Center, 2059 Main St | open |
| Golden Gate Pho | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese | 2525 Main St | open |
| Gomez Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2085 Main St | open | |
| Guanatos Ice Cream Guanatos Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 3330 Main St | open |
| Jack in the Box | Quick service | 2185 Main St | open | |
| Jaliscos Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 3899 Main St | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 5433 Neroly Road | open |
| La Costa | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 3100 Main St | open |
| La Michoacana Bakery | Bakery | Bakery · Mexican | 3370 Main St | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2170 Main St | open |
| Los Charros Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 2579 Main St | open |
| Lucia's Baked Delights | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 2973 Stonecrop Dr | open |
| Mark's Artisan Bread | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Bakery · Sandwiches | 408 Shannon Way | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 914 Main St | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | 1060 Laurel Rd | open | |
| Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · American | 2091 Main St | open |
| Mr. Pickle's Sandwich Shop Mr. Pickle's Sandwich Shops | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 3080 Main St | open |
| Oakley Tavern | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3685 Main St | open | |
| Oakley's French Bread | Bakery | Bakery | 3741 Main St | open |
| Oakley, CA (Oakley) Dutch Bros. Coffee | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 1092 Main St. | open |
| PICANTE | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 2170 Main St Ste F | open |
| Polar Bear Rolled Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 2581 Main St | open |
| Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 101 Carol Ln | open |
| Rawmix Juice Bar | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls | 3350 Main St | open |
| Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2190 Main St | open |
| Sabrina's Pizzeria | Bar | Pizza · Italian | 2587 Main St | open |
| Silver River Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 3100 Main St | open |
| Sips & Baubles | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 25 Tipton Ct | open | |
| Skipolini's Skipolini's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 3070 Main St | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 974 Laurel Rd | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 2190 Main St | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 4514 Main St | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 2005 Main St # A | open |
| Sugar Shop Cakes | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 1451 Mallard Ln | open |
| Taco Bell | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 2015 Main St | open |
| Taqueria El Paso | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 3899 Main St | open |
| Taqueria Jireh | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck | Mexican | 3950 Main St | open |
| Taquiza Limon | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 2170 Main St | open |
| The Beer Aisle | Bar | 3350 Main St | open | |
| The Oakley Bread Store | Bakery | Bakery | 3741 Main St | open |
| Tortas Ahogadas El Tio | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 3350 Main St | open |
| Uncle Wong Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 2005 Main St | open |
| Wedl Wine Cellars | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 400 Tate Ln | open | |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 1080 E. Main St | open |
| Whiskey Tango Foxtrot Restaurant Bar & Grill - Oakley Foxtrot | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 6346 Bridgehead Rd | open |
| Wingstop Wingstop | Quick service | 990 Laurel Road, Suite D | open | |
| Yogurt Island | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 3100 Main St | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 16 | 15 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 13 | 12 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 15 | 14 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 21 | 20 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 21 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 18 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 23 | 21 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 22 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 22 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 23 | 22 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 20 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 22 | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 21 | 21 | 5 | 12 | 4 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 23 | 23 | 7 | 12 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 22 | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 22 | 22 | 6 | 12 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 21 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 13 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 28 | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 26 | 25 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 27 | 24 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 27 | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 33 | 30 | 11 | 14 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 34 | 32 | 12 | 13 | 7 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 33 | 32 | 12 | 14 | 6 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 30 | 29 | 9 | 14 | 6 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 32 | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 35 | 33 | 11 | 15 | 7 | — | NAICS2022 |