BMIE Market 94572

Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,976 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±848 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,015 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±295 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,684 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,130 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$91,484 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,943 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,190 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±206 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$663,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39,260 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94572
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-22.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-22.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.78) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	33 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94572. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.78, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.9	71	40%	+28.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.5	54	35%	+18.7
Market Momentum Score	33.5	33	25%	+8.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,976	69	40%	+27.6
Median household income (ACS)	91,484	75	40%	+29.8
Households (ACS)	3,015	67	20%	+13.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-22.2	13	35%	+4.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.8	81	25%	+20.3
Population (ACS)	8,976	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	91,484	75	20%	+14.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-22.2	13	30%	+3.9
20-year restaurant growth	16.7	44	20%	+8.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

American 3 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bar 3 · Café 2 · Food truck 2 · Quick service 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
D's Giant Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	358 Parker Ave	open
El Sol Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	224 Pacific Ave	open
Flippy's Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	240 Parker Ave	open
Four Fools Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		13 Pacific Ave	open
Happy Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	677 Parker Ave	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	718 4th Street	open
Lakeman's	Bar		512 First St	open
Ricky's Corner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	18 Parker Ave	open
Shaw's Texas Style BBQ	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	670 Parker Ave	open
Straw Hat Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	687 Parker Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	685 Parker Ave	open
The Loony Bean	Coffee shop · Food truck · Café	Coffee	13 Pacific Ave	open
Uzi's Compound N Clubhouse	Bar		651 Parker Ave	open
Warrior New York Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	687 Parker Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	12	9	3	5	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	13	10	4	5	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	12	8	3	5	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	11	8	2	5	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	11	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	9	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	11	7	3	4	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	11	7	3	4	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	13	8	5	3	—	4	NAICS2002
2007	12	8	5	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	15	11	6	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	12	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	13	8	4	4	—	3	NAICS2007
2011	11	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	10	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94572. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94525	1.7 mi	4	2023
94547	1.8 mi	29	2023
94569	2.6 mi	2	2016
94564	3.2 mi	71	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.