BMIE Market 95006

Santa Cruz County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,561 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±894 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,222 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±345 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,979 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,518 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$102,167 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,139 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,129 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±238 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$843,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±52,831 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	55.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95006
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	59 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95006. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.1	73	40%	+29.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.3	62	35%	+21.8
Market Momentum Score	59.4	59	25%	+14.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,561	67	40%	+26.6
Median household income (ACS)	102,167	82	40%	+32.9
Households (ACS)	3,222	68	20%	+13.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	35%	+18.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.6	54	25%	+13.6
Population (ACS)	7,561	67	20%	+13.3
Median household income (ACS)	102,167	82	20%	+16.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	10	68	50%	+33.8
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	30%	+16.2
20-year restaurant growth	22.2	47	20%	+9.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 5 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Casual dining 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arcadian Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	13090 Pine St	open
Bella's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	13132 CA-9	open
Big Basin Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar	American	830 Memory Ln	open
Boulder Creek Pizza & Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	13200 Highway 9 Ste B	open
Boulder Creek Roadside Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	15520 Highway 9	open
Boulder Creek Roasting Co.	Coffee shop	Coffee	13266 Highway 9	open
Boulder Creek Tree House Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	13266 Highway 9	open
Dessert First Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	13090 CA-9 #2	open
Drool Pigs Clubhouse	Bar		Brook Dr	open
Fosters Freeze	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	110 Mountain St	open
Jenna Sue's Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	13090 CA-9 #2	open
Kozy Kitchen Supper Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)		133 E Hilton Dr	open
Old Mountain Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	13132 Highway 9	open
River Dogs of Boulder Creek	Food truck	Hot dogs · American	123 Forest St	open
River's Duck	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14965 Highway 9	open
Santa Cruz Mountain Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		830 Memory Ln	open
Scopazzi's Restaurant And Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	13300 Big Basin Way	open
Tae's Edo Sushi Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	13271 Highway 9	open
Taqueria Los Amigos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	13070 Highway 9	open
The Red Pearl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	13151 Central Ave	open
The Sawmill Restaurant & Ale House	Casual dining · Bar	American	15520 CA-9	open
Vicki's Treats	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	13120 Pine St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	16	13	8	5	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	15	12	6	5	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	13	11	5	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	14	11	5	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	11	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	9	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	11	9	2	4	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	13	10	4	4	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	11	7	3	2	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	12	8	3	3	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	11	8	4	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	10	5	3	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	10	6	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	15	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	14	10	6	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	13	10	6	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	14	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95006. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95007	4.6 mi	1	2010

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.