BMIE Market 95019

Santa Cruz County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,933 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,087 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,805 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±289 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,727 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,061 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$67,474 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,350 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	32.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,447 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±200 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$735,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±103,018 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95019
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+42.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	67 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95019. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	54.3	54	40%	+21.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.1	45	35%	+15.8
Market Momentum Score	67.3	67	25%	+16.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,933	63	40%	+25.3
Median household income (ACS)	67,474	43	40%	+17.2
Households (ACS)	1,805	59	20%	+11.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.9	46	25%	+11.6
Population (ACS)	5,933	63	20%	+12.6
Median household income (ACS)	67,474	43	20%	+8.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

Mexican 7 · American 4 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Quick service 6 · Casual dining 4 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
California Grill Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1970 Freedom Blvd	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	1901 Freedom Blvd	open
Chilangolandia	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	1813 Freedom Blvd	open
Donut Basket	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	2022 Freedom Blvd	open
El Michoacano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1998 Freedom Blvd	open
Fidel's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican	301 Airport Blvd	open
Happy Garden Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1980 Freedom Blvd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		1700 Freedom Blvd	open
Jerry's Donuts	Bakery	Bakery	2022 Freedom	open
La Cocina Vallarta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1702 Freedom Blvd	open
Ranch Milk Market	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	1 S Green Valley Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Juice / smoothies · Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	2010 Freedom Blvd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	1726 Freedom Blvd	open
Straw Hat Pizza Straw hat pizza Gilroy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2026 Freedom Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1964 Freedom Blvd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	14 Green Valley Rd	open
Taqueria Mi Tierra II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1726 Freedom Blvd	open
The Farm House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	11 Green Valley Rd	open
Wingstop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1998 Freedom Blvd	open
Wooden Nickel Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	1819 Freedom Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	3	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95019. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95076	1.7 mi	94	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.