BMIE Market 95209

San Joaquin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	47,409 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,157 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	13,759 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±563 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	39,488 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	13,337 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$108,675 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,631 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,766 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±115 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$494,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,834 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	34 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95209
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+17.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+47.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+17.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+36.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	41 (range 36–45) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.2 per year, r² 0.80) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	70 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95209. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.80, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	91.3	91	40%	+36.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.2	85	35%	+29.8
Market Momentum Score	70.3	70	25%	+17.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	47,409	96	40%	+38.5
Median household income (ACS)	108,675	86	40%	+34.4
Households (ACS)	13,759	92	20%	+18.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	47.8	80	35%	+27.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.2	84	25%	+20.9
Population (ACS)	47,409	96	20%	+19.3
Median household income (ACS)	108,675	86	20%	+17.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	17.2	75	50%	+37.6
10-year restaurant growth	47.8	80	30%	+23.9
20-year restaurant growth	17.2	44	20%	+8.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (51)

By cuisine

Asian 7 · Pizza 7 · American 5 · Burgers 5 · Chinese 4 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Mexican 3 · Halal / kosher 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Filipino 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Quick service 13 · Bar 8 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Buffet 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
209 Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher · Pizza	8102 Kelley Dr	open
Adalberto's Mexican Food Adalberto's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3243 W Hammer Ln	open
Bangkok Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	3255 W Hammer Ln	open
Best Lumpia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino · Asian	9305 Thornton Rd	open
Best Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2339 W Hammer Ln	open
BP	Restaurant (service type not stated)		W Hammer Ln 3250	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2994 W Eight Mile Rd	open
Cafe By The Spa	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8807 Thornton Rd	open
Captain's Anchor	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		9305 Thornton Rd a	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	3205 W. Hammer Lane	open
Chase The Smell	Quick service		1015 W Hammer Ln	open
Chow To Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3255 W Hammer Ln	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9299 Thornton Rd 9299 Thornton Rd	open
Dante's Pizza & Cafe	Café	Pizza · Italian · Coffee	9305 Thornton Rd	open
Dave's	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		8102 Kelley Dr	open
David's Pizza David's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1744 W Hammer Ln	open
De Vinci's Delicatessen De Vinci's Delicatessen - Lodi	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Italian · Sandwiches	7925 Thornton Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	9321 N Thornton Rd	open
Don't Worry About Where We Are	Bar			open
Donut Appetit	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	9303 Thornton Rd	open
Elkhorn Banquets	Casual dining · Bar	American	1050 Elkhorn Dr	open
Fired Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	678 Grider Way # A	open
Fizz Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	9210 Thornton Rd	open
Fork It	Other	Sandwiches · Burgers · American	2337 Portola Ave	open
Gaines VIP Tavern	Bar		8102 Kelley Dr	open
Halal Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher	8909 Thornton Rd Ste 5	open
Hot Basket Bake Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	9321 Thornton Rd # C	open
Island Gourmet Restaurant and Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8110 Kelley Dr B	open
Kfc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3264 W Hammer Ln	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	2339 W Hammer Ln Ste I	open
Mandarin House	Café	Chinese · Coffee · Asian	9238 Thornton Rd	open
Maria's Taqueria & Meat Market	Specialty food shop	Mexican · Latin American (other)	8909 Thornton Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2415 W Hammer Ln	open
Midnight at Burnie's Drive-Up	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3221 W Hammer Ln	open
Parkwood's Yogurt Shoppe	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1756 W Hammer Ln	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Pure Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	8835 Thorton Rd	open
Reboost Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	9303 Thornton Rd	open
Sherman's Number 3 Chinese Buffet Lin's Grand Buffet	Buffet	Chinese · Asian	8909 Thornton Rd #11	open
Shirasoni Japanese Restaurant Shirasoni Japanese Restaurant Brentwood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	3249 W Hammer Ln	open
Stockton Hookah Lounge	Bar		1937 Lucile Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8909 Thornton Rd Unit 1	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3221 W Hammer Lane Space C	open
Taco Bell	Quick service		4327 Estate Dr	open
Tacos El Duende	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	8606 Thornton Rd	open
Tandoori Nites Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	8102 Kelley Dr	open
The Establishment	Bar		7931 Thornton Rd	open
Tsing Tao Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2339 W Hammer Ln Ste h	open
Woody’s	Bar		Stockton, Ca	open
Yummy Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	3221 W Hammer Ln	open
Circus Room	Bar		7931 Thornton Rd Ste A	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	28	25	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	26	24	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	27	25	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	29	26	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	29	25	8	14	3	2	NAICS1997
1999	31	27	11	15	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	32	28	11	16	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	29	24	8	15	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	37	29	8	18	3	5	NAICS1997
2003	40	29	8	18	3	6	NAICS2002
2004	33	26	8	16	2	4	NAICS2002
2005	35	30	10	17	3	2	NAICS2002
2006	32	26	10	13	3	3	NAICS2002
2007	36	32	11	16	5	3	NAICS2002
2008	34	31	9	17	5	2	NAICS2007
2009	29	26	7	17	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	30	27	9	16	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	28	23	8	12	3	3	NAICS2007
2012	25	22	8	12	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	26	23	9	13	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	27	24	9	14	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	28	24	10	13	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	32	28	10	14	4	2	NAICS2012
2017	31	26	9	14	3	3	NAICS2017
2018	35	29	12	14	3	3	NAICS2017
2019	33	27	12	13	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	36	28	12	13	3	3	NAICS2017
2021	41	31	12	15	4	4	NAICS2017
2022	48	37	15	18	4	5	NAICS2022
2023	45	34	14	15	5	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95209. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95210	3.2 mi	67	2023
95207	3.4 mi	127	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.