BMIE Market 95212

San Joaquin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	28,437 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,496 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,187 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±583 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	25,239 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,327 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$111,720 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,818 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,486 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±241 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$538,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±41,205 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95212
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+118.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+242.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	28 (range 21–35) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	48 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95212. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.4	86	40%	+34.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.4	80	35%	+28.1
Market Momentum Score	48.2	48	25%	+12.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	28,437	88	40%	+35.1
Median household income (ACS)	111,720	87	40%	+34.9
Households (ACS)	8,187	82	20%	+16.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.4	79	25%	+19.6
Population (ACS)	28,437	88	20%	+17.6
Median household income (ACS)	111,720	87	20%	+17.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	50%	+8.9
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	118.2	86	20%	+17.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (46)

By cuisine

Mexican 10 · Pizza 6 · American 5 · Burgers 4 · Chicken / wings 4 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Vietnamese 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Quick service 11 · Food truck 6 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bar 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Casual dining 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&W Restaurants A&W Restaurants	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Burgers · American	3519 E Hammer Lane	open
Best Sandwiches and Smoothies	Juice, smoothie, tea	Sandwiches · Vietnamese · Juice / smoothies	3330 E Hammer Ln C	open
BurgerIM Morada	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Halal / kosher · Chicken / wings	4027 E Morada Ln	open
Charleys Cheesesteaks Charleys Cheesesteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	3223 E Hammer Ln	open
DON LUIS MEXICAN RESTAURANT	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5940 N ST RT 99 E	open
Don Luis Méxican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	5940 CA-99	open
el grullito burritos & tacos	Food truck			open
Frostedluv	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4027 E Morada Ln Ste 120	open
Frozen Pleasures Ice Cream And Treats	Dessert		3008 E Hammer Ln Ste 113	open
FUEGO Taquería Fuego Taqueria Morada	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10878 N Hwy 99	open
Green Papaya Food Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Food truck		10150 Ornella Ln	open
Greg Paul Produce	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4810 E Morada Ln	open
Koe's Bar	Bar · Casual dining		10200 99 Frontage Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	10878 N Hwy 99	open
Little Georgie Pizza & Happy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	10200 CA-99	open
Loncheria Chapala	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	Venture . Delta College	open
Mac Pho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	3322 E Hammer Ln	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3355 E Hammer Ln	open
Morada Neveria	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Mexican · Dessert	3008 E Hammer Ln #113	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	4339 E Morada Ln #100	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	4339 E Morada Ln	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3322 E Hammer Ln Ste H	open
Pasta Italiano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	4098 Richards Dr	open
Pollardville Chicken Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10464 N Highway 99	open
Pollardville Ghost Town	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10464 N Highway 99	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8010 Holman Rd	open
Royce Farms BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	10880 N Highway 99	open
Savage Fuel	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	3200 E 8 Mile Rd	open
Shan-E-Punjab	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	3206 E Hammer Ln Ste B	open
Sorelle Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		9599 N Highway 88	open
Star Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	3008 E Hammer Ln #117	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	10880 99 Frontage Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4103 East Morada Lane	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3706 E Hammer Ln	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4011 East Morada Lane Suite 2B110	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3714 East Hammer Lane	open
Taco Truck El Grullito	Food truck		8010 Holman Rd	open
Tacos Chapala Tacos Chapala	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3008 E Hammer Ln	open
Tacos La Unica	Food truck	Mexican	3728 E Hammer Ln #1	open
Tacos Y Pupusas La Mesa	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican	7810 Girardi Way\n	open
Taqueria San Antonio	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Food truck	Mexican	4011 E Morada Ln	open
The Crab Zone	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3240 E Hammer Ln	open
Toyo Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	4011 E Morada Ln	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	3223 E Hammer Ln	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3810 East Hammer Lane	open
Wienerschnitzel Wienerschnitzel	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	5950 CA-99	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	11	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	15	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	15	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	14	14	5	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	17	16	5	9	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	18	8	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	24	21	9	9	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	24	21	9	8	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	22	20	10	8	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	23	21	7	12	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	20	18	6	11	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	21	19	5	12	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	20	18	5	12	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	21	19	6	12	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	26	23	5	15	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	30	27	8	16	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	33	29	9	17	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	34	28	9	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	29	22	9	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	28	20	7	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	30	24	7	15	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95212. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95210	3.7 mi	67	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.