BMIE Market 95215

San Joaquin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	24,847 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,931 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,580 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±518 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	23,224 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,298 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$71,888 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,365 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,328 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±167 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$398,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,709 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	92.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	21 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95215
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+23.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+320.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	25 (range 23–27) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.71) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95215. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.71, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.8	70	40%	+27.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69.8	70	35%	+24.4
Market Momentum Score	53.6	54	25%	+13.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	24,847	85	40%	+34.1
Median household income (ACS)	71,888	50	40%	+20.1
Households (ACS)	6,580	78	20%	+15.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	23.5	66	35%	+23.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.5	78	25%	+19.6
Population (ACS)	24,847	85	20%	+17.0
Median household income (ACS)	71,888	50	20%	+10.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	23.5	66	30%	+19.8
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (51)

By cuisine

Mexican 12 · Sandwiches 9 · American 8 · Burgers 6 · Coffee 4 · Latin American (other) 3 · Bakery 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Quick service 14 · Food truck 5 · Other 5 · Specialty food shop 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Dessert 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&w Restaurant	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Chicken / wings	4450 E Waterloo Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	4608 Waterloo Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	4881 CA-99	open
Carnitas El Rincon	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Mexican	4426 E Waterloo Rd	open
Casa Flores	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4631 E Fremont St	open
Dbi Beverage San Joaquin	Brewery / taproom		4547 Frontier Way	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5033 S Hwy 99 E Frontage Rd	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches · Mexican	3950 Waterloo Rd	open
El MorraLito Churro Stand	Food truck · Dessert	Dessert	4100 E Fremont St	open
Estrella's Nacho Average Taquiza & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	202 S Sinclair Ave	open
Farmer Brothers	Coffee shop	Coffee	4243 Arch Rd	open
Fresh Food Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Indian	4895 S 99 Frontage Rd	open
Fresh Start Bakeries	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	920 Shaw Rd	open
German Guys	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European · European	10438 Waterloo Rd	open
Gnekow Family Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		17347 E Gawne Rd	open
Guamuchilito Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	1128 S Oro Ave	open
Hamburger Stand	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4105 E Main St	open
Heritage Dining and Provisions	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering · Bar	American	4343 N Ashley Ln	open
Huckleberry's Breakfast & Lunch	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	4300 E Waterloo Rd	open
Humboldt Creamery Distribution	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		1270 N Shaw Rd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		4989 S Highway 99	open
Jackos Tacos	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican		open
Kevin's Natural Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery	4221 E Mariposa Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5611 East Waterloo Rd	open
Lonchera norvak	Food truck	Mexican	4221 E Mariposa Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4419 Waterloo Road	open
Port of Subs	Other	Sandwiches	4100 E Fremont St	open
Rancho Dos Potrillos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican		open
Roberto's Riquisima Cena	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Latin American (other)	1018 S Sinclair Ave	open
Sam's Pizza and More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	3801 E Main St	open
Star Nut Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6677 Hardaway Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	4895 99 Frontage Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4426 Waterloo Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Other	Sandwiches	13521 E. Mariposa Rd., Chevron Gas Station/C-Store	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	4170 E Waterloo Rd Ste 2	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4895 State Rt 99 Suite B	open
Sutter Street Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	4219 E Waterloo Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	4327 East Highway 88	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	5025 S Highway 99	open
Tacos Chapala Tacos Chapala	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4895 CA-99	open
Tacos Danny s	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4022 E 6th St	open
Tacos La Kora	Food truck	Mexican	4869 Frontier Way	open
The El-Dorado Saloon	Bar		928 S Sinclair Ave	open
The Meltdown	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5033 S Hwy 99 E Frontage Rd	open
The Waterloo Restaurant Waterloo Liquor	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	10447 Waterloo Rd	open
TOGO'S Sandwiches TOGO'S Sandwiches	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	4850 S 99 Frontage Rd	open
Vargas Investments Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4631 E Fremont St	open
Walker's Pizza & Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches	4939 E Washington St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4431 E. Waterloo Road	open
Yosemite Meat & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	4197 E Mariposa Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	4100 E Fremont St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	6	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	14	12	7	5	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	13	11	5	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	15	10	5	5	—	4	NAICS1997
2001	16	11	5	6	—	4	NAICS1997
2002	16	14	6	8	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	16	14	5	9	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	5	9	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	16	15	5	10	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	4	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	14	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	14	8	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	17	16	8	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	17	17	9	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	17	9	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	19	18	9	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	24	21	11	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	23	21	11	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	24	21	10	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	21	10	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	24	21	10	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	25	22	11	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	23	7	13	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	23	21	6	12	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95215. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.