BMIE Market 95219

San Joaquin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	31,713 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,827 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,517 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±458 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	27,884 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,281 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$112,268 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,348 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,985 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±104 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$581,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,728 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	116.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	58 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95219
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-3.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+28.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+123.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+346.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	63 (range 55–71) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.0 per year, r² 0.42) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	50 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95219. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.42, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	88.6	89	40%	+35.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.6	71	35%	+24.7
Market Momentum Score	50.5	50	25%	+12.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	31,713	90	40%	+36.0
Median household income (ACS)	112,268	88	40%	+35.0
Households (ACS)	11,517	88	20%	+17.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	28.9	70	35%	+24.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.3	42	25%	+10.5
Population (ACS)	31,713	90	20%	+18.0
Median household income (ACS)	112,268	88	20%	+17.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-3.3	24	50%	+12.1
10-year restaurant growth	28.9	70	30%	+21.1
20-year restaurant growth	123.1	87	20%	+17.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (92)

By cuisine

American 13 · Coffee 10 · Mexican 9 · Burgers 8 · Asian 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Healthy / salads / bowls 6 · Italian 6 · Pizza 6 · Dessert 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Bakery 4 · BBQ 4 · Breakfast 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Chinese 3 · Japanese 3 · Sushi 3 · Tea / bubble tea 3 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · European 1 · Filipino 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 66 · Quick service 19 · Café 9 · Juice, smoothie, tea 8 · Coffee shop 6 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Specialty food shop 3 · Fast casual 2 · Food truck 2 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ahu trans inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10926 Gladlands Ave	open
American Meals Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2800 W March Ln Ste 310	open
American Meals Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3439 Brookside Rd Ste 103	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	10742 Trinity Pkwy Suite B	open
Birrialandia	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Juice / smoothies	2701 W March Ln	open
Bob's At The Marina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	6639 Embarcadero Dr	open
Bon Mange	Dessert	Dessert	2819 W March Ln	open
Breadfruit Tree Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8095 Rio Blanco Rd	open
Captain Crab Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2702 W March Ln	open
Carrows Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2716 W March Ln	open
Casa Flores	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3499 Brookside Rd	open
Casa Flores Marina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3201 W Benjamin Holt Dr	open
Central Brookside	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2819 W March Ln Ste A1	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	10710 Trinity Pkwy Ste A	open
Cocoro To Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	3499 Brookside Rd	open
Cruces Flores Financial Inc., A California Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3201 W Benjamin Holt Dr Ste 155	open
Dave Wong's Restaurant & Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chinese · Sandwiches	2828 W March Ln	open
Dickey's Barbecue Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	10940 Trinity Pkwy Ste H	open
Eddie's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3201 W Benjamin Holt Dr	open
El Mayita Grill	Food truck	BBQ · Mexican	2701 W March Ln	open
El Pollo Loco El Pollo Loco	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	10506 Trinity Pkwy	open
El Taco Loco	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5099 W Eight Mile Rd	open
Five Star Burger Stockton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	3558 W Hammer Ln	open
Garlic Brothers Restaurant and Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		6629 Embarcadero Dr	open
GK Mongolian BBQ GK Mongolian BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Asian	10940 Trinity Pkwy	open
Herman & Helen's Marina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bar	Coffee	15135 W Eight Mile Rd	open
Hooked Health and Wellness	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	3201 W Benjamin Holt Dr	open
Huckleberry's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	10718 Trinity Pkwy	open
IHOP IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	2716 W March Ln	open
In-N-Out Burger In-N-Out Burger	Quick service	Burgers · American	2727 W. March Lane	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		10858 Trinity Park Way	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		3506 W Hammer Ln	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	2829 W March Ln Ste. C7	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	10952 Trinity Pkwy	open
King Island Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	11530 W Eight Mile Rd	open
Krispy Kreme Krispy Kreme Doughnuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	2809 West March Lane	open
Le Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	3121 W Benjamin Holt Dr	open
Lord Of The Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3436 W Hammer Ln	open
Los cochos tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10424 Trinity Pkwy	open
Lumberjacks Restaurant Lumberjacks Restaurant - Yuba City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3113 W Benjamin Holt Dr	open
Mandarin Villa Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3201 W Benjamin Holt Dr	open
Masa Contemporary Japanese Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2819 W March Ln	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3143 W Benjamin Holt Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10623 Trinity Parkway	open
Mezzo Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Mediterranean · European	3499 Brookside Rd	open
Moo Moo's Burger Barn Moo Moo's Burger Barn - Lodi Location	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	10940 Trinity Pkwy	open
Nation's Giant Hamburgers Nation's Giant Hamburgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Breakfast · American	3333 W Hammer Ln	open
Nevada Pizza Restaurants, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7400 Shoreline Dr Ste 7	open
Ohana Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	3499 Brookside Rd # B	open
Ono Hawaiian BBQ Ono Hawaiian BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · BBQ	10952 Trinity Pkwy G	open
Pancakes 3546 Incorporated	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2716 W March Ln	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	10370 Trinity Parkway	open
Panera Bread	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	10718 Trinity Pkwy	open
Pardon My Cheesesteak	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2716 W March Ln	open
Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10850 Trinity Pkwy	open
Raw Sushi Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	10742 Trinity Pkwy	open
Ripon Restaurant Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3439 Brookside Rd Ste 103	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2819 W March Ln	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10952 Trinity Pkwy	open
Scott Creek Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5138 Scott Creek Dr	open
See's Candies See's Candies	Dessert	Dessert	10408 Trinity Pkwy	open
Sharetea Stockton	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	10318 Trinity Pkwy	open
Sisig and Boba	Juice, smoothie, tea	Filipino · Tea / bubble tea · Asian	3436 W Hammer Ln	open
Slim's Noodle Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3499 Brookside Rd	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10354 Trinity Pkwy	open
Soulmates Wines Piano Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6469 Brook Hollow Cir	open
Sourdough & Co. Sourdough & Co. Modesto H Street	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	10318 Trinity Pkwy	open
Sourdough and Co. Sourdough & Co. Modesto H Street	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	2829 W March Ln c4	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2866 W March Ln	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3011 W Benjamin Holt Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	10602 Trinity Pkwy	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	10424 Trinity Pkwy (Target North Stock, Ton T-1862)	open
Straw Hat Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3201 W Benjamin Holt Dr	open
Strings Italian Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	10628 Trinity Pkwy #E	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2819 West March Lane Ste B10	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10952-E Trinity Pkwy Suite E	open
Sugar Mediterranean Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean	10628 Trinity Parkway Suit E	open
T% Coffee + Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	2819 W March Ln Ste A8	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3507 W Hammer Lane	open
Tacos Catrina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3304 W Hammer Ln	open
The Bistro - Eat. Drink. Connect.®	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3252 W March Ln	open
The Habit Burger Grill The Habit Burger Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	2829 W. March Ln. STE C-1	open
The Healthy Spot Stockton	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	3422 W Hammer Ln e	open
The Old Spaghetti Factory	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2702 W March Ln	open
the pho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	2819 W March Ln A1	open
Tikka Masala Indian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	10628 Trinity Pkwy	open
VIP Pizza VIP Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3499 Brookside Rd	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	10355 Trinity Pkwy	open
Wendy's	Quick service		10512 Trinity Pkwy	open
Wetzel's Pretzels	Other · Dessert · Quick service	Dessert	10355 Trinity Pkwy	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	10742 Trinity Pkwy Ste C	open
Subway	Other · Dessert	Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts	3201 W Benjamin Holt Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	17	17	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	16	16	7	8	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	16	16	8	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	19	19	9	10	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	17	17	8	8	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	20	20	8	10	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	26	26	13	12	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	25	25	10	13	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	34	34	13	16	5	—	NAICS2002
2006	42	42	13	23	6	—	NAICS2002
2007	46	44	15	24	5	1	NAICS2002
2008	47	46	16	24	6	1	NAICS2007
2009	49	48	15	26	7	1	NAICS2007
2010	52	50	16	27	7	2	NAICS2007
2011	47	45	15	24	6	2	NAICS2007
2012	45	44	15	25	4	1	NAICS2012
2013	46	45	13	28	4	1	NAICS2012
2014	52	49	13	31	5	2	NAICS2012
2015	48	47	13	29	5	1	NAICS2012
2016	49	48	15	26	7	1	NAICS2012
2017	59	55	16	30	9	—	NAICS2017
2018	62	60	18	32	10	—	NAICS2017
2019	63	59	18	31	10	—	NAICS2017
2020	57	54	16	29	9	—	NAICS2017
2021	52	50	16	26	8	—	NAICS2017
2022	56	54	17	26	11	—	NAICS2022
2023	59	58	18	29	11	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95219. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.