BMIE Market 95237

San Joaquin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,639 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±576 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,529 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±270 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,167 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,214 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$87,117 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,392 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,286 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±150 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$490,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±118,165 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95237
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	31.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+57.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+83.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 7–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	43 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95237. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.6	62	40%	+24.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.8	53	35%	+18.5
Market Momentum Score	43.4	43	25%	+10.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,639	55	40%	+22.2
Median household income (ACS)	87,117	70	40%	+28.1
Households (ACS)	1,529	57	20%	+11.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	22.2	65	35%	+22.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	30.2	20	25%	+4.9
Population (ACS)	3,639	55	20%	+11.1
Median household income (ACS)	87,117	70	20%	+14.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	22.2	65	30%	+19.5
20-year restaurant growth	57.1	70	20%	+13.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 3 · BBQ 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Winery / distillery / taproom 10 · Bar 6 · Quick service 5 · Café 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
BITE STREET CAFE	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	14102 CA-88	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	18890 N Hwy 88	open
Capri Bar and Grill	Bar		18690 N Highway 88	open
Clay oven indian restaurant & bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	18690 CA-88	open
Country Cafe	Casual dining	American	18700 N Highway 88	open
Coyotes	Bar · Casual dining	Mexican	14015 CA-88	open
Daddy's House of Ribs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	13460 Main St	open
Day-O Espresso Day-O Espresso and Smoothies	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	14083 CA-88	open
Donkey J's Deli & Ice Cream Shop	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Dessert · Café	Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	18966 N Highway 88	open
Donut Street Cafe	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	13464 E Highway 88	open
Foothill Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	18970 N Highway 88	open
Gribaudo Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		12470 Locke Rd	open
Gypsy Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · American	12562 Locke Rd	open
Harmony Grove Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		12470 Locke Rd	open
Harmony Grove Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		12470 Locke Rd	open
Jeremy Wine Co. - Lockeford	Winery / distillery / taproom		16750 E CA-88	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	18780 N Highway 88	open
Little Italians LNS	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	13336 E Highway 88	open
Lockeford Winery, Stone Garden Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		12470 Locke Rd	open
Lone Grape Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		12470 Locke Rd Ste 600	open
Lvvr Sparkling Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		Tuscan village	open
Macchia	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		12470 Locke Rd	open
New Hope Guest Home, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17451 N Tretheway Rd	open
Pizza Factory	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	14088 Main St Ste A	open
Quick Pit 88	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	13400 E Highway 88	open
Refresh Lockeford	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies		open
Rich Plate Restaurant and Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	13410 E Highway 88	open
Stama Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		12470 Locke Rd	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	14035 Highway 88	open
THE OFFICE	Bar		14088 CA-88	open
Tuscan Wine Village	Winery / distillery / taproom		12470 Locke Rd	open
Boitano Enterprises	Winery / distillery / taproom		12470 Locke Rd Ste 800	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	7	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	4	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	12	11	4	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	5	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	13	12	5	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	12	7	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	13	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	14	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95237. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95240	2.2 mi	102	2023
95253	2.7 mi	1	2011

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.