BMIE Market 95304

San Joaquin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,841 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,750 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,949 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±516 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,706 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,140 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$115,007 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,098 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,426 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±274 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$893,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±45,854 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	153.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	56 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95304
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+5.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+107.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+250.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+5,500.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	75 (range 65–86) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +2.7 per year, r² 0.75) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	78 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95304. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +2.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.75, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.3	81	40%	+32.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.2	70	35%	+24.6
Market Momentum Score	78.5	78	25%	+19.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,841	78	40%	+31.0
Median household income (ACS)	115,007	89	40%	+35.4
Households (ACS)	4,949	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	107.4	94	35%	+33.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	35.4	16	25%	+3.9
Population (ACS)	15,841	78	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	115,007	89	20%	+17.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	5.7	62	50%	+31.1
10-year restaurant growth	107.4	94	30%	+28.3
20-year restaurant growth	250	95	20%	+19.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (116)

By cuisine

American 22 · Asian 10 · Burgers 10 · Mexican 10 · Bakery 7 · Pizza 7 · Coffee 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Chicken / wings 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Indian 5 · Japanese 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Middle Eastern 5 · BBQ 4 · Hot dogs 4 · Italian 4 · Dessert 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Chinese 2 · Halal / kosher 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Sushi 2 · Vietnamese 2 · Breakfast 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 81 · Quick service 20 · Bar 11 · Casual dining 9 · Bakery 7 · Café 6 · Dessert 6 · Food truck 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Buffet 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Specialty food shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Fast casual 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
777 Payment Processing Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		392 W Larch Rd Ste 1	open
A's Chicken Sandos & Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Halal / kosher	2469 Naglee Rd	open
AmruthaVilas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	2976 W Grant Line Rd	open
Angry Chickz - Tracy The Angry Chickz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Burgers	2431 Naglee Rd	open
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3060 N. Naglee Road	open
Arya Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	21459 S Reeve Rd	open
Auntie Anne's Auntie Anne's	Bakery · Quick service · Food truck	Bakery	3200 Naglee Rd	open
Azteca Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	392 W Larch Rd	open
Baja Fresh Baja Fresh	Quick service		3788 N Tracy Blvd	open
Banta Inn	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	22563 S 7th St	open
Bay Boys Brewing	Bar		1005 E Pescadero Ave Ste 111	open
Bayside Wireless Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		950 E Grant Line Rd	open
Bingsu Bliss	Food truck		3100 N Corral Hollow Rd	open
BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		2770 Naglee Rd	open
Bluefin Sushi Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	2433 Naglee Rd	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Casual dining	American	2796 Naglee Road West Valley Mall	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2890 Grant Line Rd	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3200 Naglee Rd Ste 614	open
BurgerIM	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	2469 Naglee Rd	open
Casa Mendoza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7500 E. 11th St.	open
Chinese Gourmet Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	3200 Naglee Rd Ste 610	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2512 Naglee Rd	open
Crumbl - Tracy	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	2467 Naglee Rd	open
Dairy Queen	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	3200 Naglee Rd	open
Dave's Chile	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	American	4396 W Grant Line Rd	open
De Afghanan Kabob House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	2712 Naglee Rd	open
Dosa Biryanizz Chaat Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	2805 Naglee Rd Ste 130	open
Dreyer's Grand Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3200 Naglee Rd Ste 157	open
Early Bird Breakfast Tacos	Food truck		3010 W Grant Line Rd	open
El Gato Volador	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	3255 Auto Plaza Way	open
El Patio Tracy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1005 E Pescadero Ave	open
El Pollo Loco El Pollo Loco	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2442 Naglee Rd	open
Famous Dave's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3170 Naglee Rd	open
Filipino Asian Corner	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	3200 Naglee Rd	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	2970 W. Grant Line Road	open
Four Corners Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	7509 W Linne Rd	open
GK Mongolian BBQ GK Mongolian BBQ	Buffet	BBQ · Asian	3296 Grant Line Rd	open
Gohan A.Y.C.E Buffet	Buffet	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	3200 Naglee Rd	open
Gokazoku Ramen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	3200 Naglee Rd	open
Golden Corral Golden Corral Buffet & Grill	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2850 W Grant Line Rd	open
Halal Joint	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher · Middle Eastern	3200 Naglee Rd	open
HomeTown Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3200 Naglee Rd	open
Hot Dog on a Stick	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	3200 N. Naglee Road, Sp #185	open
IHOP IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	3120 Naglee Rd	open
Isabela's Mexican Food Truck	Food truck	Mexican	4491 W Durham Ferry Rd	open
Jack's Place Jack's Place	Bar		7939 Eleventh St	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	2501 Naglee Rd Ste. A	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	2982 W. Grant Line Rd	open
Jimmy's One Stop	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	30836 Airport Way	open
Kimono	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2433 Naglee Rd	open
Korean Chicken Tto Bong Ee (또봉이), TRACY	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2742 Naglee Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3940 N Tracy Blvd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2615 Grant Line Road	open
Las buchonas bar	Bar		11714 Finck Rd	open
Little Caesars	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3210 W Grant Line Rd	open
Love Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	2706 Pavilion Pkwy	open
Mamang Sorbetero LLC	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Bakery	3200 Naglee Rd	open
Mary`s Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3200 Naglee Rd	open
Mazaa Kabob House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	2745 Naglee Rd	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3010 W Grant Line Rd	open
Mel's Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2986 W Grant Line Rd	open
MICHELADAS SPORTS BAR	Bar		7784 Eleventh St	open
Midori Fine Asian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	2541 Naglee Rd	open
Milk & Sugar Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2805 Naglee Rd #140	open
Minerva Grand	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	2986 W Grant Line Rd	open
Mis Delicia's Taqueria	Quick service		3200 Naglee Rd	open
MOD Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2682 Naglee Rd Ste 120	open
Moo Moo's Burger Barn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3200 Naglee Rd Ste 608	open
Oh My Dawgs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	2745 Naglee Rd	open
Olive Garden Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Italian · Healthy / salads / bowls	3140 Naglee Rd	open
Ono Hawaiian BBQ Ono Hawaiian BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · BBQ · Asian	2457 Naglee Rd	open
Panda Express	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	2441 N. Naglee Rd. Space# 7f	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	2512 Naglee Rd	open
Paradise Biryani Pointe Paradise Biryani Pointe Milpitas	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	3242 W Grant Line Rd	open
Pho Rice and Rolld	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	2725 Naglee Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2800 Naglee Road San Joaquin	open
Pizza My Heart Pizza My Heart - Santa Cruz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2682 Naglee Rd #120	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	640 E 11th Street, Unit 101	open
Prima Bella Produce Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	11104 S Tracy Blvd	open
Punjabi Grill Restaurant	Buffet		1005 E Pescadero Ave Ste 101	open
Red Brick Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2742 Naglee Rd	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2511 Naglee Rd	open
Rubio's Coastal Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2431 Naglee Rd Ste 7a	open
Saigon	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2801 Naglee Rd	open
Saigon Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	2437 Naglee Rd	open
Sansei	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	3200 Naglee Rd	open
Sbarro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3200 Naglee Rd	open
Seventeen O Eight Company Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3120 Naglee Rd	open
SK Hira Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		8458 W Linne Rd	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3080 N Naglee Rd	open
Squeeze Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Burgers · American	2742 Naglee Rd	open
Starbeans Cafe	Café		3200 Naglee Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3780 N Tracy Blvd, STE 101	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	630 E 11th St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2459 North Naglee Road Home Depot Center Tracy	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2800 Naglee Road	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2449 N Naglee Road Suite 6 B	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7503 W 11th St	open
Surf City Squeeze	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3200 Naglee Rd Ste 3510	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	2880 W Grant Line RD	open
Tacos La Cochinita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7870 W 11th St	open
Tacos La Potranca	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7750 W 11th St	open
Taste of Texas Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3100 Corral Hollow Rd	open
Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	2422 Naglee Rd	open
The American Dog	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11337 W Clover Rd	open
The Cajun Spot	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3242 W Grant Line Rd	open
The Grant Bar & Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2706 Pavilion Pkwy	open
The Habit Burger Grill The Habit Burger Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	2682 Naglee Road	open
Tutti Frutti Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3200 Naglee Rd #160	open
Twisted Curries	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	1005 E Pescadero Ave Ste 101	open
Walmart Bakery	Specialty food shop · Bakery · Quick service	Sandwiches · Bakery	3010 W Grant Line Rd	open
Wayback Burgers	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Hot dogs	3218 W Grant Line Rd	open
Wetzel's Pretzels Wetzel's Pretzels	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Bakery	3010 W Grant Line Rd	open
Wienerschnitzel Wienerschnitzel	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	2870 W Grant Line Rd	open
Windmill Ridge Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		8350 W Linne Rd	open
Yafa Hummus Yafa Hummus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	2439 Naglee Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1999	5	5	1	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	9	3	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	13	11	5	2	3	1	NAICS1997
2003	18	16	6	6	3	1	NAICS2002
2004	27	25	10	10	4	1	NAICS2002
2005	31	30	13	11	5	1	NAICS2002
2006	31	29	11	13	4	2	NAICS2002
2007	32	31	13	13	5	1	NAICS2002
2008	36	34	12	16	5	1	NAICS2007
2009	28	27	11	9	6	1	NAICS2007
2010	32	30	15	10	4	1	NAICS2007
2011	31	29	14	10	4	1	NAICS2007
2012	29	27	9	12	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	28	27	9	12	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	32	31	10	15	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	45	43	15	22	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	48	47	15	26	4	1	NAICS2012
2017	51	50	16	27	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	54	53	16	29	6	—	NAICS2017
2019	59	57	17	31	7	—	NAICS2017
2020	55	54	16	29	7	—	NAICS2017
2021	54	53	15	30	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	56	55	15	33	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	58	56	14	32	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95304. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95376	4.8 mi	121	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.