BMIE Market 95320

San Joaquin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,354 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,662 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±408 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,819 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,657 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$82,572 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,209 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,658 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±275 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$521,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55,912 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	88.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95320
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+5.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+18.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+90.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+72.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 14–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.14) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95320. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.14, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.7	71	40%	+28.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.8	64	35%	+22.3
Market Momentum Score	65.4	65	25%	+16.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,500	75	40%	+30.0
Median household income (ACS)	82,572	65	40%	+26.1
Households (ACS)	4,662	73	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	18.8	62	35%	+21.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.1	56	25%	+14.0
Population (ACS)	13,500	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	82,572	65	20%	+13.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	5.6	62	50%	+31.0
10-year restaurant growth	18.8	62	30%	+18.6
20-year restaurant growth	90	79	20%	+15.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (41)

By cuisine

Mexican 10 · American 4 · Coffee 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Italian 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Pizza 3 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Japanese 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Sushi 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 5 · Food truck 5 · Café 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Barrel Ten Quarter Circle	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		21801 CA-120	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1108 Yosemite Ave	open
Cancun Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1246 Yosemite Ave	open
D'boni's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2249 Jackson Ave	open
Donut Shack	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	2245 Jackson Ave	open
Escalon Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	1429 Stanislaus St	open
Happy Gardens	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Chinese	1205 Plaza Ave	open
Hula's Hula's	Casual dining	American · Burgers	2261 Jackson Ave #2050	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1405 California St	open
La Cabaña	Food truck		1550 Main St	open
La Conchita Taqueria Y Botanas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1205 Plaza Ave	open
Lagier Ranches	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		16161 S Murphy Rd	open
Lone Tree Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25525 Lone Tree Rd # 8557	open
Lumberyard Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1455 1st St	open
Makara Japanese Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	2243 Jackson Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1960 Mchenry Ave	open
Mi Taco Union De Tula Jal	Food truck	Mexican	2226 Jackson Ave	open
Mi Tierra Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1900 McHenry Ave	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1255 Lillian Ave	open
Pizza Plus Escalon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1900 McHenry Ave #104	open
Relish	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1754 Main St	open
Rice Bowl Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1900 McHenry Ave	open
Rosa's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	2251 Jackson Ave	open
Rossetti's Corner/Michael's Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches · Mexican · Latin American (other)	25411 Lone Tree Rd	open
Sabor Latino	Food truck		2001 Main St	open
Shorty's Sports Pub & Grill	Bar		1205 Plaza Ave Ste 11	open
Smokehouse Bar B Que	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1205 Plaza Ave	open
Soul Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1754 Main St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1255 Lillian Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1205 Plaza Ave	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1100 Yosemite Ave	open
Taco Truck Las Ranitas	Food truck	Mexican	2501 Jackson Ave	open
Tacos De Nieve	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	Mexican	2125 California St	open
Tacos Santa Ana Maya	Food truck	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	22107 State Highway 120	open
Taqueria Campestre	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1205 Plaza Ave #8	open
Te Velde George Dairy	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	27815 Dodds Rd	open
The Big Dipper	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1512 Highway 120	open
Valley Inn	Bar		1744 Main St	open
Waffle Factory Waffle Factory	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	2253 Jackson Ave	open
Zinc House Farm	Winery / distillery / taproom		20679 CA-120	open
Sicily Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1205 Plaza Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	18	15	6	7	2	3	NAICS1997
1999	16	15	5	7	3	1	NAICS1997
2000	13	11	3	6	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	13	11	4	6	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	13	10	2	7	1	3	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	2	8	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	14	13	5	8	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	11	4	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	6	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	15	14	4	8	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	18	17	5	7	5	1	NAICS2007
2009	15	14	5	6	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	15	13	4	6	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	17	15	4	7	3	2	NAICS2007
2012	18	17	7	7	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	5	7	4	1	NAICS2012
2014	17	16	5	8	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	15	14	4	8	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	14	14	4	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	16	4	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	18	7	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	18	6	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	15	4	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	13	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	18	7	8	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	19	7	8	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95320. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.