BMIE Market 95337

San Joaquin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	48,731 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,377 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	14,079 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±613 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	31,557 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,622 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$117,137 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,174 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,197 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±93 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$645,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,923 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	45.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	54 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95337
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+58.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+217.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+260.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	61 (range 53–69) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.8 per year, r² 0.70) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	93 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	77 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95337. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.70, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	92.9	93	40%	+37.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84.3	84	35%	+29.5
Market Momentum Score	77.3	77	25%	+19.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	48,731	97	40%	+38.6
Median household income (ACS)	117,137	89	40%	+35.8
Households (ACS)	14,079	92	20%	+18.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	58.8	86	35%	+30.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.1	68	25%	+17.0
Population (ACS)	48,731	97	20%	+19.3
Median household income (ACS)	117,137	89	20%	+17.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8	65	50%	+32.6
10-year restaurant growth	58.8	86	30%	+25.8
20-year restaurant growth	217.7	95	20%	+19.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (103)

By cuisine

Coffee 16 · American 15 · Bakery 8 · Burgers 8 · Mexican 8 · Sandwiches 8 · Dessert 7 · Pizza 7 · Asian 6 · Italian 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · BBQ 4 · Chicken / wings 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 4 · Indian 4 · Hawaiian / Pacific 3 · Japanese 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Noodles / ramen / pho 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 47 · Quick service 23 · Café 14 · Bar 12 · Dessert 11 · Casual dining 10 · Coffee shop 9 · Bakery 8 · Juice, smoothie, tea 6 · Food truck 5 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Fast casual 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
88 BaoBao - Manteca	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2235 W Atherton Dr	open
Airport Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1413 S Airport Way	open
AJ Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		578 Industrial Park Dr	open
Authentic Shawarma	Food truck	Mediterranean · Halal / kosher		open
Barnwood Pretzelmaker	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bakery · Food truck	Hot dogs · Bakery	2500 Daniels St	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1111 S Main St Unit B2	open
BeCuisine Cafe And Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Indian	2271 W Louise Ave	open
Bella Mangiata Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	1124 W Yosemite Ave	open
Cabana Del Sol	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	1124 W Yosemite Ave	open
Cafe Aroma	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches	1499 W Yosemite Ave	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	1465 W Yosemite Ave	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	2187 W Atherton Dr	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2262 Daniels St.	open
Chili's In Manteca	Quick service	American		open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		270 W. Atherton Drive	open
Crumbl Cookies Crumbl	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	2235 W. Atherton Dr Ste 104	open
Curry Pizza House Manteca Curry Pizza House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	878 Lifestyle St	open
Daily Fresh Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	1154 W Yosemite Ave	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers	1138 S Main St 1138 S Main St	open
Dickey's Barbecue Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1446 Husley Way	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's	Quick service		1205 S Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		2500 Daniels St	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	2500 Daniels St	open
Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1413 S Airport Way	open
Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	1105 W Yosemite Ave	open
El Jardin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1119 S Main St	open
El Mayita Tacos y Birria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	504 W Yosemite Ave	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	2140 Daniels Street	open
Fosters Freeze Fosters Freeze	Quick service · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	906 W Yosemite Ave	open
GK Mongolian BBQ GK Mongolian BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Asian	1039 S Main St	open
GWL Manteca Pretzelmaker	Quick service		2500 Daniels St	open
Indian Cafe Manteca CA	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Indian · Coffee	2128 Daniels St	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2262 Daniels St.	open
J S Foods Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1471 W Yosemite Ave	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		1081 S Main St	open
Jack's Pizza and Bar Jack's	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	1223 W Yosemite Ave	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	2160 Daniels St	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1445 S Airport Way Suite 105	open
Jimmys Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1800 W Yosemite Ave	open
Junoon Indian Cuisine & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Indian	1261 W Yosemite Ave	open
Junoon Sweets & Bakers	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1497 W Yosemite Ave	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1222 W Atherton Dr	open
Las Casuelas Las Casuelas Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	1580 W Yosemite Ave	open
Loma Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		1181 Milo Candini Dr	open
Main Street Doughnuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	1041 S Main St	open
Mama Weber's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	551 Carnegie St	open
Manteca Food Truck Frenzy	Food truck		710 E Woodward Ave	open
Manteca Water Div	Winery / distillery / taproom	American	220 Oak St	open
Manuel Silveira Dairy	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	28533 Two Rivers Rd	open
Masalatina Latin American Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1800 W Yosemite Ave	open
Matsu Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	874 Lifestyle St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2050 Daniels Street	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1236 W Yosemite Ave	open
Menchie's Menchie's	Dessert · Bar	Dessert	1445 S. Airport Way Unit # 104, Manteca, CA 95337	open
Mevas Tacos & More	Catering · Juice, smoothie, tea	Mexican · Juice / smoothies	1423 Red Ribbons Ln	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2235 W Atherton Dr Suite 101	open
New China Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	1457 W Yosemite Ave	open
Noni Vita Ravioli Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	823 S Mellon Ave	open
Ono Hawaiian BBQ Ono Hawaiian BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Hawaiian / Pacific	2152 Daniels St	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	2130 Daniels St	open
Paradise Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1464 W Yosemite Ave	open
Perko's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1223 W Yosemite Ave # AVE-5125	open
Pete's Restaurant & BrewHouse	Casual dining · Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	881 Lifestyle St	open
Pho Island II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	1125 S Main St	open
Pizza Twist Pizza Twist - Bakersfield, CA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1156 S Main St	open
Pokemoto Manteca	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Healthy / salads / bowls	2235 W Atherton Dr suite 103	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1401 W YOSEMITE AVENUE	open
Quality Restaurant Enterprises, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1200 W Yosemite Ave	open
Ramen 101	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	2162 Daniels St	open
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Red Robin Gourmet Burgers	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	873 Lifestyle St	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2120 Daniels St	open
Sakana Japanese Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	1460 W Yosemite Ave	open
San Joaquin Valley Red, White and Brew	Brewery / taproom		1422 Grove Ave	open
See's Candies See's Candies	Dessert	Dessert	2164 Daniels St	open
Shooters Wings & Things	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1464 W Yosemite Ave	open
Sizzler Sizzler Family Steak House	Buffet	American · Steakhouse	1890 Daniels St	open
Star Tea Manteca Boba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	1473 W Yosemite Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2168 Daniels St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	129 S Union Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	779 W Yosemite Ave	open
Strings Italian Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Coffee	1125 S Main St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2126 Daniels St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1235 W. Yosemite Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	1027 S. Main St.	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1968 Daniels Street	open
Tacos Nayarit	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican	2142 W Yosemite Ave	open
Taqueria El Jaliscience	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	2978 W Yosemite Ave	open
Tato's Mexican Grill & Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	897 Lifestyle St	open
Texas Country Breakfast & Lunch	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	1471 W Yosemite Ave	open
The Happy Food Plates	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · American	106 Pierce Ave	open
The Pho	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1351 W Yosemite Ave	open
The Starlite Room	Bar		140 El Portal Ave	open
TOGO'S Sandwiches TOGO'S Sandwiches	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1115 S Main St	open
Uncle Frank's Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	305 N Union Rd	open
V. Suttui Winery Napa, Ca	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar			open
Vineyards Armstrong	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		30500 Garden Ave	open
Vitality Bowls Vitality Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	882 Lifestyle St	open
Waba Grill Manteca	Quick service		2335 W Atherton Dr	open
Walmart Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1205 S Main St	open
West Coast Sourdough West Coast Sourdough	Bakery · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls · Bakery	2126 Daniels St	open
Yokli Yogurt	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1325 W Yosemite Ave	open
Yosemite Ave Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1105 W Yosemite Ave	open
Zaika Indian Bistro Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Indian	893 Lifestyle St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	15	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	20	17	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	19	16	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	20	18	9	8	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	19	17	9	7	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	18	15	6	8	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	19	18	6	9	3	1	NAICS1997
2002	16	13	7	5	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	20	17	6	10	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	21	18	4	9	4	2	NAICS2002
2005	19	16	3	11	2	3	NAICS2002
2006	20	18	3	11	4	2	NAICS2002
2007	22	19	5	11	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	25	21	7	8	6	2	NAICS2007
2009	23	20	8	8	4	1	NAICS2007
2010	23	19	7	8	4	2	NAICS2007
2011	28	25	8	11	6	2	NAICS2007
2012	33	30	9	17	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	38	34	9	19	5	2	NAICS2012
2014	38	34	14	17	2	2	NAICS2012
2015	41	37	15	19	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	42	39	17	19	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	47	45	20	20	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	52	50	22	21	7	—	NAICS2017
2019	50	47	22	20	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	47	43	16	21	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	43	41	13	22	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	58	54	19	26	9	—	NAICS2022
2023	59	54	21	25	8	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95337. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.