BMIE Market 95357

Stanislaus County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,599 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,611 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,190 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±459 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,559 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,861 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$95,707 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,480 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,028 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±223 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$445,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,150 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	39.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95357
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.35) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	51 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95357. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.35, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.6	76	40%	+30.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.6	55	35%	+19.1
Market Momentum Score	50.6	51	25%	+12.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,599	75	40%	+30.1
Median household income (ACS)	95,707	78	40%	+31.2
Households (ACS)	4,190	72	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	35%	+4.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.8	77	25%	+19.2
Population (ACS)	13,599	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	95,707	78	20%	+15.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	30%	+4.1
20-year restaurant growth	9.1	39	20%	+7.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 5 · Mexican 4 · Pizza 4 · Italian 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Quick service 8 · Coffee shop 5 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 2 · Bar 1 · Dessert 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Cariblue Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	3801 Yosemite Blvd	open
Carmelita’s Taqueria #1	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5124 Yosemite Blvd	open
Don Tomas Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	201 S McClure Rd	open
floridas delighful coffee shop	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5000 Yosemite Blvd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		3621 Yosemite Blvd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3801 Yosemite Blvd	open
Lula's Neighborhood Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4821 Yosemite Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3801 Yosemite Blvd	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3801 Yosemite Blvd	open
Mr. Pickle's Sandwich Shop	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	3609 Oakdale Rd	open
Nestlé Manufacturing Facility	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		736 Garner Rd	open
Panaderia La Michoacana	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · Mexican	3801 Yosemite Blvd	open
Perkos Cafe Perko's café Citrus Height	Casual dining	American	3500 Oakdale Rd	open
Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut	Quick service · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Pizza · Coffee	2501 Claribel Rd	open
Rico's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5000 Yosemite Blvd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	3801 Yosemite Blvd (Yosemite & Claus -, Modesto)	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3601 Yosemite Avenue	open
Tandoori masala	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Pelandale ave	open
Taqueria El Maguey	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3801 Yosemite Blvd	open
The Fruit Yard	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	7948 Yosemite Blvd	open
Tonys Donut and Grill	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Casual dining	Dessert · American	4811 Yosemite Blvd	open
United Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	4242 Coffee Rd.	open
Wienerschnitzel Wienerschnitzel	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	3525 Yosemite Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	7	2	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	8	2	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	12	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	12	2	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	10	4	4	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	14	13	7	3	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	15	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	15	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	14	5	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	15	4	8	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	15	4	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	13	4	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	3	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	2	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	12	3	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95357. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95319	2.9 mi	1	2007
95355	3.3 mi	85	2023
95354	4.8 mi	66	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.