BMIE Market 95377

San Joaquin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	37,739 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,979 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,170 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±480 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	30,902 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,819 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$158,158 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,591 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,031 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±154 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$834,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,495 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	110.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	29 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95377
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+61.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+70.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+190.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+866.7% DERIVED: 2000 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	29 (range 24–34) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.61) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	93 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	89 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	91 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95377. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.61, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	93.1	93	40%	+37.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	89.2	89	35%	+31.2
Market Momentum Score	90.8	91	25%	+22.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	37,739	93	40%	+37.2
Median household income (ACS)	158,158	97	40%	+38.8
Households (ACS)	10,170	86	20%	+17.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	70.6	88	35%	+30.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.7	82	25%	+20.4
Population (ACS)	37,739	93	20%	+18.6
Median household income (ACS)	158,158	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	61.1	92	50%	+46.3
10-year restaurant growth	70.6	88	30%	+26.4
20-year restaurant growth	190	91	20%	+18.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

American 6 · Chicken / wings 4 · Coffee 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · BBQ 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Peruvian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Quick service 6 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Other 3 · Bar 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&w Restaurant KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2290 W Grant Line Rd	open
Afghan Kabob Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Middle Eastern · American	2179 W Grant Line Rd	open
African/Caribbean Mart Tracy	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		2271 W Grant Line Rd	open
Bay Area House Of Frozen Desserts	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2420 W Grant Line Rd	open
Black Bear Diner Black Bear Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2351 Toste Rd	open
Bottoms Up Espresso Bottoms Up Espresso Vernalis ️	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2355 W Grant Line Rd	open
Capital Restaurant Concepts Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2351 Toste Rd	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	2380 W Grant Line Rd	open
Cellar 13 Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar			open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2030 W. Grant Line Rd.	open
Dhaba Indian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	2242 W Grant Line Rd	open
Ellis Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2420 W Grant Line Rd	open
Ghirardelli Ice Cream & Chocolate Factory Outlet	Dessert	Dessert	1015 Promontory Pkwy	open
Golden Gate Cafeteria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	18501 Stanford Rd	open
Hardeep & Sons Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25440 S Schulte Rd	open
Hp & Sons Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25440 S Schulte Rd	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2030 W. Grant Line Rd.	open
Jazfran	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian	3175 Milton Jenson Ct	open
Jitters Expresso	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2355 W Grant Line Rd	open
Kandi's Pie and Pastries	Bakery	Bakery	27210 S Lammers Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	25460 S Schulte Rd	open
L&L Hawaiian Barbecue L&L Hawaiian BBQ - Vancouver	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Asian · Hawaiian / Pacific	2271 W Grant Line Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2820 South Tracy Blvd	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	2260 Grant Line Rd Ste 104	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2260 W Grant Line Rd	open
Pho Real & Grill Pho Hoa	Casual dining · Bar	Vietnamese · Asian	2231 W Grant Line Rd	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2271 W Grant Line Rd	open
Raley's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	26600 Hansen Rd	open
Salem Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	425 Glenbrook Dr	open
Speer BBQ	Catering	BBQ · American	35200 S Chrisman Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1102 N International Pkwy	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches		open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	25440 S Schulte Rd	open
Taco Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1102 N International Parkway	open
Taqueria Jalos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	25456 S Schulte Rd	open
Taqueria Maguey	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2242 W Grant Line Rd	open
Tracy Quickly	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	2251 W Grant Line Rd	open
Wienerschnitzel	Quick service		25432 S Schulte Rd	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service		SWC of Ellis Towne Dr and Corral Hollow Rd	open
Wood Fired Pizza By A.J. Frerichs - At Carbona's Family Market & Liquor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	28323 S MacArthur Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2000	4	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	8	4	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	16	13	4	5	4	2	NAICS2002
2007	17	16	5	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	14	4	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	17	6	10	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	18	16	7	8	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	16	15	8	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	18	17	7	9	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	18	17	6	11	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	16	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	18	6	12	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	19	18	6	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	18	8	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	22	8	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	18	7	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	22	20	9	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	22	10	12	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	31	29	10	17	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95377. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.