BMIE Market 95404

Sonoma County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	37,011 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,816 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	15,478 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±691 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	39,761 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	17,039 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$105,437 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,077 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,949 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±93 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$903,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,647 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	75.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	57 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95404
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-12.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+32.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+62.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	54 (range 47–62) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.17) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95404. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.17, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.6	90	40%	+35.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.2	54	35%	+19.0
Market Momentum Score	25.9	26	25%	+6.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	37,011	93	40%	+37.0
Median household income (ACS)	105,437	84	40%	+33.7
Households (ACS)	15,478	94	20%	+18.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-12.3	17	35%	+6.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.4	51	25%	+12.8
Population (ACS)	37,011	93	20%	+18.5
Median household income (ACS)	105,437	84	20%	+16.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.1	20	50%	+10.1
10-year restaurant growth	-12.3	17	30%	+5.2
20-year restaurant growth	32.6	53	20%	+10.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (147)

By cuisine

Coffee 23 · American 16 · Italian 10 · Mexican 8 · Pizza 8 · Bakery 7 · Latin American (other) 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Asian 6 · Breakfast 3 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Spanish / tapas 3 · French 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · African 1 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · Filipino 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Southeast Asian (other) 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 65 · Winery / distillery / taproom 42 · Bar 32 · Café 20 · Coffee shop 11 · Quick service 9 · Bakery 8 · Casual dining 7 · Dessert 6 · Food truck 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Catering 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abyssinia Ethiopian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	African	913 4th St	open
Acre Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	621 4th St	open
Ancient Oak Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		637 4th St	open
Ancient Oak Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		621 4th St	open
Antojitos La Texanita	Food truck			open
Argot Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		5445 Sonoma Mountain Rd	open
Ausiello's 5th Street Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	609 5th St	open
Aztec Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1100 Bennett Valley Rd	open
Barbed Oak Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		3763 Matanzas Creek Ln	open
Baril Compliance Services	Winery / distillery / taproom		414 Chinn St	open
Beer Baron Bar & Kitchen Beer Baron	Casual dining · Bar		614 4th St	open
Belden Barns	Winery / distillery / taproom		5561 Sonoma Mountain Rd	open
Bennett Valley Grape Growers	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		Bennett Valley, Santa Rosa , 95404, United States	open
Bevedere	Bar		3460 Parker Hill Rd	open
Bird & The Bottle	Casual dining · Bar	Spanish / tapas	1055 4th St	open
Black Kite Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		225 Mountain Meadow Rd	open
Bliss Sandwiches & Boba Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Sandwiches · Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	622 4th St	open
Brookwood Cleaners	Restaurant (service type not stated)		915 4th St	open
Bruno's On Fourth	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1226 4th St	open
Ca'Bianca Ristorante Italiano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	835 2nd St	open
Cafe Des Croissants Cafe Des Croissants	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2444 Lomitas Ave	open
Cafe Lolo	Restaurant (service type not stated)		620 5th St	open
California Del Sur	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · American	1024 Santa Rosa Ave	open
Canevari's Delicatessen & Catering	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches · Italian	695 Lewis Rd	open
Carmen's Bistro & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		619 4th St	open
Carmen's Burger Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1612 Terrace Way	open
Chandi New Restaurant Concepts Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		614 4th St	open
Chelino's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1079 4th St	open
Christy's on the Square	Bar		96 Old Courthouse Sq	open
Cornell Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		420 Spring Mountain Summit Trl	open
Coursey Graves Estate Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		6860 Serenity Way	open
Crooks Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	404c Mendocino Ave	open
Cuppa	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	2000 Elizabeth Way	open
Cyclisk	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1255 Santa Rosa Ave	open
Darbar Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	615 4th St	open
Dierk's Parkside Cafe	Café	Breakfast · Coffee · American	404 Santa Rosa Ave	open
Dobo'S Farm and Kitchen Spa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino · Asian	1300 Moura Ln	open
Downtown Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	610 3rd St	open
Dry Stack Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		4100 Grange Rd	open
Dumol Winery DuMOL	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1920 Redwood Hill Rd	open
El Fogon Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)		623 4th St	open
El Milagro Taco Truck	Food truck	Mexican	1212 Petaluma Hill Rd	open
El Palomar Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	623 4th St	open
El Patio #2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	901 4th St	open
Enology Lounge	Bar		37 Old Courthouse Sq	open
Estate 8 Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		8305 St Helena Rd	open
Falafel Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	701 4th St	open
Fisher Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		6200 St Helena Rd	open
Flanagan Family Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		6860 Serenity Way	open
Flavor Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	96 Old Courthouse Sq	open
Flower & Bone	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	640 5th St	open
Fogline Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		4780 Pressley Rd	open
Fosters Freeze Fosters Freeze	Quick service · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1400 4th St	open
Frances Ford Coppola Winery - Rustic Restaurant	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Frostwatch Vineyard and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		5560 Bennett Valley Rd	open
Gary Chu's Chinese Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	611 5th St	open
Goguette Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · French · Coffee	59 Montgomery Dr	open
Grateful Bagel	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	631 4th St	open
Great Savor	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck · Catering		1011 College Ave	open
Hoffman House Cafe and Geyserville Inn	Café	Coffee · American	1017 College Ave	open
Ike's Love and Sandwiches Ike's Sandwiches	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	1780 Mendocino Ave	open
Italian Affair	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1055 4th St	open
J & A Lounge	Bar		643 4th St	open
J&M's Midtown Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · American · Breakfast	1422 4th St	open
Johnny Doughnuts Johnny Doughnuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	1200 4th St	open
Jojo Sushi Bar & Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	645 4th St	open
Kancha - Champagne Bar & Tapas	Bar	Spanish / tapas	643 4th St	open
King's Hill Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		3404 Kings Hill Rd	open
Kivelstadt Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Quick service			open
L'Objet Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1257 Humboldt St	open
L'oro Di Napoli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	629 4th St	open
La Palapa Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	590 Lewis Rd	open
La Vera Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		629 4th St	open
Land and Water Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	621 4th St	open
Lazzini's Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	3449 Bennett Valley Rd	open
Ledson Winery Ledson Winery & Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		740 4th St	open
Linked Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		2285 Marjories Pl	open
Liquid Venture Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		610 3rd St	open
Mac's	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	630 4th St	open
Mary's Pizza Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	615 4th St	open
Matanzas Creek Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Matanzas Creek Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		6097 Bennett Valley Rd	open
Matteson Restaurant Group Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		643 4th St	open
Mazzacco Winery Healdsburg	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar			open
Mcdonald, Santa Rosa	Quick service			open
Meat Cheese Bun Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1501 4th St	open
Mi Pueblo Santa Rosa	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	703 4th St	open
Moaveni Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		3245 Matanzas Creek Ln	open
Mockingbird Bar & Chill	Bar		616 Mendocino Ave	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	1150 Santa Rosa Ave	open
Mr Pickles Sandwich Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	621 4th St	open
Nana's Cafe	Café · Bakery · Coffee shop	Coffee · Bakery	85 Santa Rosa Ave	open
Noodle Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian · Southeast Asian (other) · Noodles / ramen / pho	958 Santa Rosa Ave	open
NY Pie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	65 Brookwood Ave	open
Paradise Ridge Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
PeaceLand Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1888 Crystal Springs Ct	open
Peet's Coffee & Tea	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	650 4th St Ste 100	open
Perch + Plow	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		90 Old Courthouse Sq	open
Perch + Plow	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		90 Old Courthouse Sq	open
Persona Wood Fired Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	701 4th St	open
Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1980 Santa Rosa Ave	open
Pupuseria Salvadorena	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	1403 Maple Ave	open
Rendezvous Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	614 4th St	open
Riviera Ristorante Riviera Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	75 Montgomery Dr	open
Rosso Pizzeria Enoteca Llc Rosso Pizzeria & Wine Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza · Italian	53 Montgomery Dr	open
Russian River Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		725 4th St	open
Russian River Production Brewery	Brewery / taproom		1812 Ferdinad Ct	open
Sabor Latino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	1709 Santa Rosa Ave	open
Sam's Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	1031 Petaluma Hill Rd	open
Sandy's Take & Bake Pizza	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Pizza	2015 Elizabeth Way	open
Santi	Café	Coffee	2097 Stagecoach Rd	open
Soco Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1015 4th St	open
Sonoma Mountain Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		6360 Sonoma Mountain Rd	open
Sonoma Winemakers Studio	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		4780 Pressley Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	650 4th St 100	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	200 Santa Rosa Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1385 Santa Rosa Ave	open
Stark Reality Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	1605 4th St Ste A	open
Steelhead Creek Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		6902 Plum Ranch Rd	open
Superburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	1501 4th St	open
Sweet Spot Pub	Bar		619 4th St	open
Tamales Mana	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Latin American (other)	1110 Petaluma Hill Rd #3	open
Tan's Donut	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee	1074 4th St	open
Taqueria Las Palmas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	415 Santa Rosa Ave	open
The Destein Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		Jameson Road, Santa Rosa CA 95404	open
The Howard House	Bar		510 Howard St	open
The Naked Pig	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	435 Santa Rosa Ave	open
The Odd Wine Company	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		414 Chinn St	open
The Pharmacy Sonoma County	Café	Coffee	990 Sonoma Ave	open
The Zoo	Bar		527 Barham Ave	open
Third Street Aleworks Headquarters	Brewery / taproom		610 3rd St	open
Ting Hau	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	717 4th St	open
Trecini Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		441 Beaver St	open
Tudor Rose English Tea Room	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	733 4th St	open
Van der Kamp Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		6360 Sonoma Mountain Rd	open
Village Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1445 Town and Country Dr	open
Viluko Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		5005 Alpine Rd	open
Vimark Inc	Winery / distillery / taproom		101 D St # A	open
Vino Filtration - Wine Filtration , Mobile filtration, Smoke Taint	Winery / distillery / taproom		847 Sabra barbara Dr	open
Watkins Family Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3741 Beauford Pl	open
Willi's Wine Bar Willi's Seafood & Raw Bar	Bar	Spanish / tapas	1415 Town and Country Dr	open
Willie Bird's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1150 Santa Rosa Ave	open
Wine Spectrum	Winery / distillery / taproom		3315 Chanate Rd Ste 1b	open
WineSmith wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		441 Beaver St	open
Zeka Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		5377 Bennett Valley Rd	open
Zoftig Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sandwiches	57 Montgomery Dr	open
Seed To Leaf Organics	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	25 Old Courthouse Sq	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	40	35	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	37	33	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	40	36	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	43	39	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	44	39	18	14	6	4	NAICS1997
1999	51	48	25	14	8	2	NAICS1997
2000	50	45	24	13	8	3	NAICS1997
2001	48	44	22	14	8	2	NAICS1997
2002	54	48	29	12	7	3	NAICS1997
2003	48	43	25	13	5	1	NAICS2002
2004	50	45	25	14	6	1	NAICS2002
2005	47	41	20	15	6	2	NAICS2002
2006	59	52	30	19	3	2	NAICS2002
2007	62	54	31	19	4	3	NAICS2002
2008	66	55	32	16	7	4	NAICS2007
2009	63	55	28	17	10	3	NAICS2007
2010	66	61	33	17	11	1	NAICS2007
2011	68	62	33	18	10	1	NAICS2007
2012	67	61	32	18	11	3	NAICS2012
2013	73	65	41	15	9	5	NAICS2012
2014	67	60	39	13	8	4	NAICS2012
2015	63	57	36	12	9	3	NAICS2012
2016	61	55	37	9	9	2	NAICS2012
2017	72	63	40	12	11	—	NAICS2017
2018	71	62	38	12	12	3	NAICS2017
2019	73	64	40	13	11	4	NAICS2017
2020	67	59	34	14	11	3	NAICS2017
2021	69	60	33	14	13	3	NAICS2017
2022	59	52	32	13	7	—	NAICS2022
2023	65	57	34	14	9	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95404. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95403	3.8 mi	75	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.