BMIE Market 95441
Sonoma County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 1,648 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±323 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 705 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±124 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 2,014 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 847 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $126,806 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,497 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 57.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,647 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±577 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $1,282,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±328,268 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 157.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95441 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 19.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +66.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 6 (range 4–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.43) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 84 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95441. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.43, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 62.0 | 62 | 40% | +24.8 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 62.2 | 62 | 35% | +21.8 |
| Market Momentum Score | 84.4 | 84 | 25% | +21.1 |
Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 1,648 | 41 | 40% | +16.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 126,806 | 92 | 40% | +36.9 |
| Households (ACS) | 705 | 43 | 20% | +8.6 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 66.7 | 87 | 35% | +30.6 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 30.3 | 20 | 25% | +4.9 |
| Population (ACS) | 1,648 | 41 | 20% | +8.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 126,806 | 92 | 20% | +18.5 |
Market Momentum Score: 84 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 25 | 81 | 50% | +40.4 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 66.7 | 87 | 30% | +26.2 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 150 | 89 | 20% | +17.8 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (82)
By cuisine
American 6 · Coffee 5 · Italian 4 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1
By type
Winery / distillery / taproom 59 · Bar 22 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Casual dining 4 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Quick service 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A&G Mexican Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 21091 Geyserville Ave | open |
| Alden Park Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 21912 River Rd | open | |
| Alexander Valley | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | open | ||
| Alexander Valley AVA | Winery / distillery / taproom | open | ||
| Alexander Valley Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | open | ||
| Bannister Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 21035 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Banshee Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 5110 CA-128 | open | |
| Breathless Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4001 Highway 128 | open | |
| CAST Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom | 8500 Dry Creek Rd | open | |
| Catelli's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · American | 21047 Geyserville Ave | open |
| Cebicheria El Pintor-Las Lomas Piura"". | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Seafood | CEBICHERIA EL PINTOR-LAS LOMAS | open |
| Clos Du Bois | Winery / distillery / taproom | 19410 Geyserville Ave # 9603 | open | |
| Collier Falls Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 9931 Dry Creek Rd | open | |
| Corner Project Ales & Eats | Casual dining · Bar | 21079 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Crux Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 18850 Hassett Ln Building C | open | |
| Cyrus | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 275 CA-128 | open |
| David Coffaro Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 7485 Dry Creek Rd | open | |
| deLorimier Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2001 CA-128 | open | |
| Diavola Pizzeria and Salumeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 21021 Geyserville Ave | open |
| Dutcher Crossing Winery Dutcher Crossing Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7899 Dry Creek Rd | open | |
| Fanucchi Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom · Quick service | open | ||
| Fermata Coffee Geyserville | Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop | Coffee · Juice / smoothies | 21001 Geyserville Ave | open |
| Ferrari Carano Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 2450 Highway 128 | open | |
| Ferris Hillside Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 7570 Dry Creek Rd | open | |
| Florence Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom | 14600 Rockpile Rd | open | |
| Four Seasons Vineyard Management | Winery / distillery / taproom | 19172 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Francis Ford Coppola Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 300 Via Archimedes | open | |
| Francis Ford Coppola Winery Too | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 22281 Chianti Rd | open | |
| Frick Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 23072 Walling Rd | open | |
| Furlong Estates vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom | Chianti Rd | open | |
| Garden Creek Ranch Vineyards Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2335 Geysers Rd | open | |
| Geyserville | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hwy 128 | open | |
| Geyserville Grille | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 21712 Geyserville Ave | open |
| Geyserville Gun Club | Bar | 21025 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Geyserville Mud | Coffee shop | Coffee | 21001 Geyserville Ave | open |
| Hawkes Red Winery Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom | 6520 Red Winery Rd | open | |
| Hoffman House Restaurant | Specialty food shop · Quick service | American · Sandwiches · Breakfast | 21712 Geyserville Ave | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 21079 Geyserville Ave | open |
| Lago di Merlo Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 3495 Skaggs Springs Rd | open | |
| Leo Steen Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom | 18850 Hassett Ln Stall 30 | open | |
| Leonhardt Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 8500 Dry Creek Rd | open | |
| Locals Tasting Room | Bar | 21060 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| LocalsLink | Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 21023 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| López Family Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | open | ||
| Los Plebes Mexican Food Truck | Food truck | Mexican | 55 Lytton Springs Rd | open |
| Mercury Wine | Winery / distillery / taproom | 21015 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Michael David Winery of Sonoma | Winery / distillery / taproom | 24625 Chianti Road | open | |
| Mila Family Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2433 Wilson Rd | open | |
| Monson Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 3400 Geysers Rd | open | |
| Munselle Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 3674 Highway 128 | open | |
| Pastasciutta707 | Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bar | Sandwiches · Italian | 21023 Geyserville Ave | open |
| Paul’s Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Pizza · Coffee | 21716 Geyserville Ave | open |
| Pech Merle Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 21001 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Pedroncelli Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 1220 Canyon Rd | open | |
| Quail Run Buffet | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | at River Rock Casino | open |
| Quail Run Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Coffee · American | 3250 CA-128 | open |
| Rack and Riddle Alexander Valley Rack & Riddle - Lodi | Winery / distillery / taproom | 4001 CA-128 | open | |
| Ramazzotti Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom | 100 School House Ln Ste #110 | open | |
| Rancho Maria Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom | 21015 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Robert Young Estate Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5102 Red Winery Rd | open | |
| Rockpile AVA | Winery / distillery / taproom | open | ||
| Rockpile Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 18450 Rockpile Rd | open | |
| Route 128 Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 21079 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Rustic, Francis's Favorites | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 300 Via Archimedes | open |
| Santi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 21047 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Sbragia Family Vineyards Sbragia Family Tasting Lounge | Winery / distillery / taproom | 9990 Dry Creek Rd | open | |
| Sceales-Bingham Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | open | ||
| Skipstone | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2505 Geysers Rd | open | |
| Starlite Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5511 Highway 128 | open | |
| Stone Ranch | Winery / distillery / taproom | 18955 Independence Ln | open | |
| Stryker Sonoma | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5110 Highway 128 | open | |
| Terroirs Artisan Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom | 21001 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| The Meeker Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 21035 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Trattore Farms and Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 7878 Dry Creek Rd | open | |
| Trentadue Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 19170 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Trione Vineyards and Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 19550 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Vintners Signatures Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 4001 Highway 128 | open | |
| Vinwood Cellars | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 18700 Geyserville Ave | open | |
| Werowocomoco | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 22281 Chianti Rd | open |
| Wilson Artisan Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom | 106 School House Ln | open | |
| Wolf Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 18850 Hassett Ln Bldg C | open |
| Zialena Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 21112 River Rd | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 5 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 3 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |
Nearby markets (within 5 miles)
None within 5 miles.