BMIE Market 95446

Sonoma County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,607 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±571 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,374 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±263 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,750 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,565 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$85,833 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,558 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,530 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±189 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$610,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±41,493 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	31.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95446
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	27.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-5.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-5.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+23.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 8–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.22) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	46 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95446. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.22, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	64.0	64	40%	+25.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36.9	37	35%	+12.9
Market Momentum Score	46.0	46	25%	+11.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,607	59	40%	+23.6
Median household income (ACS)	85,833	69	40%	+27.6
Households (ACS)	2,374	64	20%	+12.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-5.9	21	35%	+7.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	34.7	16	25%	+4.1
Population (ACS)	4,607	59	20%	+11.8
Median household income (ACS)	85,833	69	20%	+13.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	14.3	72	50%	+36.2
10-year restaurant growth	-5.9	21	30%	+6.2
20-year restaurant growth	-5.9	18	20%	+3.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (53)

By cuisine

American 11 · Coffee 5 · Asian 3 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Bar 16 · Winery / distillery / taproom 7 · Casual dining 6 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Food truck 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
16236 Main Street Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16236 Main St	open
3 Alarm Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	16218 Main St	open
Agriculture Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	16467 Hwy 116	open
Appaloosa Bar , Guerneville	Bar		16440 4th St	open
Baked on the River	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	16390 4th St	open
Betty Spaghetti	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	16390 4th St	open
Boon Eat + Drink	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	16248 Main St	open
Charizma Wine Lounge and Deli	Dessert	Dessert	16337 Main St	open
Coffee Bazaar Cafe	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	14045 Armstrong Woods Rd	open
Den Of Inequity	Bar · Coffee shop	Coffee	14810 Northern Ave	open
El Barrio	Bar		16230 Main St	open
Equality Vines	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	16215 Main St	open
Flavors Unlimited	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	16450 Main St	open
Guerneville Bank Club	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery · Casual dining · Bar	Dessert · Bakery · American	16290 Main St	open
Guerneville Taco Truck	Food truck	Mexican	16405 CA-116	open
Higher Ground Organic Espresso	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	16350 3rd St	open
INIZI Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		16290 Main St	open
Koala's Fine Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	16380 Mill St a	open
Korbel Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		13250 River Rd	open
Kyla Brooke, M.S., Realtor	Winery / distillery / taproom		14045 Armstrong Woods Rd	open
La Bodeguita #2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	16380 Mill St	open
La Bodeguita Panino	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	16316C Main St	open
La Tapatía	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Main Street Bistro & Piano Bar-Cabaret Main Street Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza · American	16280 Main St	open
Mct's Bullpen	Bar		16246 First St	open
Noodle Rice Etc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	17121 California 116	open
Pat's International	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	16236 Main St	open
Pebble Ridge Vineyards & Wine Estates	Winery / distillery / taproom		14590 Drake Rd	open
Peet's Coffee and Tea Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	16405 River Rd # 950	open
Pinoli Cucina Rustica	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	13555 Hwy 116 at The Applewood Inn	open
Porter-Bass Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		11750 Mays Canyon Rd	open
Rainbow Cattle Company	Bar		16220 Main St	open
Revival	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13555 Hwy 116	open
River Inn Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	16141 Main St	open
Rivertime Restaurant & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	16225 Main St	open
Russian River Beer Revival and BBQ Contest	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		15045 River Rd	open
Russian River Properties Inc	Bar		14270 Highland Ave	open
Saucy Mama's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	16632 CA-116	open
Seaside Metal	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	16222 Main St	open
Smart Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	16205 First St	open
Squirrel	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		16447 4th St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	16316 Main St Ste C	open
Taqueria La Tapatia	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16632 Hwy 116	open
The Farmhand	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	15025 River Rd	open
The Guerneville Wine Collective	Bar		16290 Main St	open
The Hot Box BBQ The Hot Box BBQ	Food truck	BBQ · Sandwiches	16155 Drake Rd	open
The Oxbow	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	17132 CA-116	open
Three Cultures Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	16218 Main St	open
TKO Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		Old Cazadero Rd	open
Trillium Winebar & Taproom	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		16222 Main St	open
Trio Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16225 Main St	open
Uncle Janky's	Bar		Russian River Blues and Jazz Festival, 16241 1st St	open
Whitetail Winebar	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		16230 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	17	14	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	22	16	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	24	16	8	6	2	7	NAICS1997
1999	26	19	9	8	2	6	NAICS1997
2000	25	18	9	7	2	6	NAICS1997
2001	22	16	8	6	1	5	NAICS1997
2002	18	14	8	5	—	4	NAICS1997
2003	22	17	10	6	1	5	NAICS2002
2004	23	19	11	6	2	4	NAICS2002
2005	26	18	10	6	2	6	NAICS2002
2006	19	14	5	6	3	4	NAICS2002
2007	19	14	7	4	3	3	NAICS2002
2008	20	15	8	4	3	3	NAICS2007
2009	20	14	6	5	3	4	NAICS2007
2010	19	13	7	3	3	4	NAICS2007
2011	20	15	8	3	4	4	NAICS2007
2012	21	16	7	6	2	4	NAICS2012
2013	22	17	9	5	3	4	NAICS2012
2014	23	18	10	4	4	4	NAICS2012
2015	22	17	10	4	3	4	NAICS2012
2016	20	13	6	4	3	5	NAICS2012
2017	20	13	5	4	4	6	NAICS2017
2018	20	14	8	4	—	6	NAICS2017
2019	21	15	8	4	3	6	NAICS2017
2020	20	15	7	5	3	5	NAICS2017
2021	19	14	8	3	3	5	NAICS2017
2022	16	13	8	—	3	3	NAICS2022
2023	19	16	11	3	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95446. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95471	2.2 mi	1	2016
95486	3.2 mi	1	2016
95462	3.2 mi	4	2023
95430	4.5 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.