BMIE Market 95460

Mendocino County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,199 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±371 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,136 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,285 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,555 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$73,576 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,489 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	66.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,890 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±353 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$708,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±99,413 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	34.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95460
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	39.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-26.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+37.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.23) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95460. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.23, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	50.1	50	40%	+20.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41.2	41	35%	+14.4
Market Momentum Score	26.0	26	25%	+6.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,199	47	40%	+18.6
Median household income (ACS)	73,576	53	40%	+21.1
Households (ACS)	1,136	52	20%	+10.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	35%	+18.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	50.0	10	25%	+2.4
Population (ACS)	2,199	47	20%	+9.3
Median household income (ACS)	73,576	53	20%	+10.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-15.4	15	50%	+7.6
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	30%	+16.2
20-year restaurant growth	-26.7	11	20%	+2.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

Bakery 5 · Coffee 5 · American 4 · Dessert 3 · European 2 · Pizza 2 · Vegetarian 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · French 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bakery 5 · Café 5 · Bar 4 · Dessert 4 · Casual dining 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
955 Ukiah Street Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	955 Ukiah Street	open
Beque Korean Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	39055 Cedar Blvd, #198	open
Cafe Beaujolais	Café · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · French · European · Coffee · Bakery	961 Ukiah St	open
Dick's Place	Bar		45070 Main St	open
Flow Restaurant and Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	45040 Main St	open
Fog Eater Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Coffee	45104 Main St	open
Frankie's	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Ice cream / frozen desserts	44951 Ukiah St	open
Garden Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	10450 Lansing St	open
Gnar Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	10450 Lansing St	open
GoodLife Cafe & Bakery	Café · Bakery	Coffee · Breakfast · Bakery	10483 Lansing St	open
Handley Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Luna Trattoria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	955 Ukiah St	open
Mendocino Baking Company	Bakery	Bakery	Little Lake Rd, Mendocino , 95460, United States	open
Mendocino Chocolate Company	Dessert	Dessert	45050 Main St	open
Mendocino Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	45051 Ukiah St	open
Mendocino Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10483 Lansing St	open
MendoVino	Café · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	10481 Lansing St	open
Papa Bear's Chocolate Haus	Dessert	Dessert	45150 Main St	open
Patterson's Pub	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	10485 Lansing St	open
Shani's Sweet Creations	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	9955 Warner Ln	open
The Ravens	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan · Vegetarian · American	44850 Comptche Ukiah Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	11	5	3	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	12	6	2	4	—	NAICS1997
2000	13	13	8	2	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	12	12	7	2	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	11	7	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	15	8	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	15	15	9	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	12	8	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	8	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	8	2	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	6	2	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	6	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	6	2	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	11	10	6	2	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	11	10	5	2	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	4	2	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	10	5	2	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	13	13	8	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	13	8	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	12	9	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	12	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	12	9	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95460. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95456	3.3 mi	1	2016
95420	3.9 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.