BMIE Market 95465

Sonoma County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,203 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±287 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	545 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±134 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,083 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,314 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$120,781 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,673 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	57.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,633 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±293 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,079,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±202,470 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	48.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95465
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 4–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	22 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95465. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	58.0	58	40%	+23.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33.3	33	35%	+11.6
Market Momentum Score	22.0	22	25%	+5.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,203	35	40%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	120,781	91	40%	+36.2
Households (ACS)	545	38	20%	+7.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	35%	+5.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	49.9	10	25%	+2.4
Population (ACS)	1,203	35	20%	+7.1
Median household income (ACS)	120,781	91	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 22 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-33.3	8	50%	+4.1
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	30%	+4.9
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 3 · Breakfast 1 · French 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 6 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Café 3 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Barley and Hops Tavern	Bar		3688 Bohemian Hwy	open
Bistro des Copains	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	3876 Bohemian Highway	open
Boheme Cellar Door	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3625 Main St	open
Bohemian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	3782 Bohemian Hwy	open
Charles Heintz Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		Harrison Grade Rd	open
Cobb Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		18100 Fitzpatrick Ln	open
El Mariachi Cafe	Café	Mexican · Latin American (other) · Coffee	3595 Bohemian Hwy	open
Hazel Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3782 Bohemian Hwy	open
Howard Station Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	3611 Bohemian Hwy	open
Jigar Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		3805 Bohemian Hwy Unit 467	open
Kortum Trail Parking Lot	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Negri's Original Occidental	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	3700 Bohemian Hwy	open
Sonoma Coast AVA	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
The Altamont General Store	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	3703 Main St	open
Two Trees Tea House	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	3597 Bohemian Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	4	4	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	7	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95465. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95430	3.0 mi	3	2023
95462	4.1 mi	4	2023
95486	4.1 mi	1	2016
95419	4.8 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.