BMIE Market 95470

Mendocino County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,226 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±790 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,206 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±265 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,032 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,391 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$76,250 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,038 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,162 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±194 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$627,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±45,020 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	69.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95470
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-28.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	75 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95470. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.8	61	40%	+24.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77.6	78	35%	+27.2
Market Momentum Score	74.6	75	25%	+18.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,226	64	40%	+25.5
Median household income (ACS)	76,250	57	40%	+22.8
Households (ACS)	2,206	62	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	150	95	35%	+33.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.0	80	25%	+20.1
Population (ACS)	6,226	64	20%	+12.8
Median household income (ACS)	76,250	57	20%	+11.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	150	95	30%	+28.6
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

American 3 · Asian 2 · Pizza 2 · Thai 2 · Coffee 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 18 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Broiler Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	8400 Uva Dr	open
Captain Deez	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	6951 East Rd	open
Cesar Toxqui Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		7301 N State St	open
Domaine St Gregory	Winery / distillery / taproom		1170 Bel Arbres Dr	open
Elizabeth Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		8591 Colony Dr	open
Frey Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		11700 West Rd	open
Frey Vineyards Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		14000 Tomki Rd	open
Germain-robin Distillery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1110 Bel Arbres Dr	open
Gherlone Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1201 Rd C	open
Girasole Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		7051 N State St	open
Giuseppe Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		401 E School Way	open
Graziano Family of Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1170 Bel Arbres Rd	open
La Palapa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	8501 East Rd	open
Lolonis Family Vineyards & Winery inc.	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1905 Road D	open
Marios Ristorante Italiano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9601 N State St	open
McCarty's Bar	Bar		6951 East Rd	open
Mendocino Spirits	Winery / distillery / taproom		1110 Bel Arbres Rd #D	open
Mia Bea Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		9910 Madrone Ln	open
Pizza Etc, Take and Bake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6951 East Rd B	open
Powicana Farm	Winery / distillery / taproom		3350 Road B	open
Redwood Valley Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		10801 East Rd	open
Refwood Valley Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9621 N State St	open
Silversmith Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		3700 Rd J	open
Silversmith Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		8121 Vineyard Oaks Dr	open
Testa Antiques	Winery / distillery / taproom · Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee	9001C N State St	open
Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Thai	9621 N State St	open
Thai Tasty	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	9621 N State St	open
Vic's Place	Bar		8501 East Rd	open
Westfork Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		10250 East Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	9	7	5	1	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	10	7	5	1	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	8	6	4	1	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	9	6	4	1	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	8	6	4	1	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	7	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	6	4	2	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	6	4	2	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	6	4	3	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	8	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	8	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	7	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	7	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	6	4	2	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	5	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	4	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	5	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	5	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	4	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	5	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	5	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	5	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95470. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.