BMIE Market 95490

Mendocino County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,677 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,000 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,701 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±417 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,264 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,012 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,594 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,348 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,243 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±148 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$392,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,392 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	430.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	22 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95490
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+4.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-12.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-4.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+10.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 17–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.17) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	40 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95490. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.17, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.4	70	40%	+28.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.8	47	35%	+16.4
Market Momentum Score	39.5	40	25%	+9.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,677	76	40%	+30.5
Median household income (ACS)	79,594	62	40%	+24.7
Households (ACS)	5,701	76	20%	+15.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-12	17	35%	+6.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.0	53	25%	+13.2
Population (ACS)	14,677	76	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	79,594	62	20%	+12.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	4.8	61	50%	+30.6
10-year restaurant growth	-12	17	30%	+5.2
20-year restaurant growth	-4.4	19	20%	+3.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (55)

By cuisine

Mexican 10 · Coffee 8 · American 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Burgers 5 · Dessert 4 · Japanese 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Pizza 4 · Asian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Sushi 3 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 37 · Quick service 8 · Café 7 · Coffee shop 6 · Bar 5 · Dessert 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Casual dining 3 · Bakery 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Taste of Paradise	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches	349 S Main St	open
Al's Redwood Room	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	207 S Main St	open
April Mays Drive Thru Espresso	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	110 North Main St	open
Aztec Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	781 S Main St	open
Barbara J Ivy Dba Ivy Accounting And Payroll Services	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1786 S Main St	open
Brewed Awakening Brewed Awakening	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	1437 S Main St	open
Brickhouse Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3 S Main St, E Commercial St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1355 S Main St	open
Buster's Burgers and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	150 S Main St	open
Delicias Sweet	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	39 S Main St	open
Diggers	Bar		244 S Main St	open
El Chicano Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1551 S Main St	open
Element 7 Willits	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	1795 S Main St	open
Fiesta Mexicana Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16580 N Highway 101	open
Happy Donuts Willits	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	1661 S Main St	open
Inner Earth Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	280 E Commercial St	open
its time willits	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	35 E Commercial St	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Burgers	788 S Main St	open
Karkar's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Breakfast	25287 Sherwood Rd	open
Kelly's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	77 S Main St	open
Kemmy's Pies	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	299 E Commercial St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	898 S Main St	open
La Siciliana Restaurant & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1611 S Main St	open
Little John's	Bar		383 S Main St	open
Loose Caboose Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Sandwiches	10 Wood St	open
Lumberjacks Restaurant Lumberjacks Restaurant - Yuba City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1740 S Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1488 S Main St	open
Northspur Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		101 North Main St	open
Papa Murphy's \| Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	875 South Main Street	open
Peter's Sushi and Chinese House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Chinese · Sushi · Asian	383 S Main St	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Pizza To Go Pizza to Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	31 W Commercial St	open
Ramen Cubed	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho	35 E Commercial St	open
Restaurant El Mexicano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	166 S Main St	open
Rios Fish and Chips	Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food · Seafood	1661 S Main St D	open
Scoops	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Dessert	Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts	110 North Main St	open
Shanachie Pub	Bar		50 S Main St	open
Slam Dunk Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	1708 S Main St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	788 S Main St	open
Starchild Chocolate	Dessert	Dessert	101 N Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1704 S Main St Space #2	open
Super Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1726 S Main St	open
Szechuan Asian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Japanese · Chinese	47 E Mendocino Ave	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1500 S Main St	open
Taquería Bravo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	235 S Main St	open
Taqueria Jalos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	898 S Main St	open
Taqueria La Tapatia Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		144 N Main St	open
Taqueria Maria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1661 S Main St	open
Taqueria Ramirez	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican	310 Franklin Ave	open
Taste Buds	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Caribbean	349 S Main St	open
The Buzzard's Roost	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Sandwiches · Hot dogs	150 S Main St	open
The Munchery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	1797 S Main St	open
The Whistle Stop	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	280 E Commercial St	open
Willits 76	Bar		1579 S Main St	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	845 S Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	22	20	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	21	19	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	23	21	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	26	24	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	28	26	14	11	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	28	25	13	11	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	25	23	11	11	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	26	23	11	11	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	24	23	10	12	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	24	23	13	9	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	25	24	12	9	3	1	NAICS2002
2005	23	22	10	9	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	24	22	11	9	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	30	28	17	9	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	29	27	14	11	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	28	25	15	9	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	26	22	12	8	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	28	24	13	9	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	26	24	12	8	2	2	NAICS2012
2013	29	25	12	8	4	3	NAICS2012
2014	28	24	11	10	2	3	NAICS2012
2015	25	22	11	9	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	27	23	11	10	2	3	NAICS2012
2017	29	24	12	10	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	26	21	11	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	26	21	10	9	—	4	NAICS2017
2020	26	22	11	9	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	28	24	12	10	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	28	23	9	12	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	27	22	9	11	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95490. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.