BMIE Market 95709

El Dorado County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±982 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,364 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±379 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,772 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,144 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,780 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,479 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,749 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±236 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$578,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39,762 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95709
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 0–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.43) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95709. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.43, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.8	63	40%	+25.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.5	50	35%	+17.7
Market Momentum Score	64.8	65	25%	+16.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,000	63	40%	+25.3
Median household income (ACS)	79,780	62	40%	+24.7
Households (ACS)	2,364	64	20%	+12.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15	53	25%	+13.2
Population (ACS)	6,000	63	20%	+12.7
Median household income (ACS)	79,780	62	20%	+12.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	28.6	83	50%	+41.3
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (38)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 19 · Bar 14 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Casual dining 5 · Café 4 · Bakery 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Other 2 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Andersonia Wine	Bar		2875 Larsen Dr	open
Apple Blossom Coffee House	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · American	4077 Carson Rd	open
Apple Hill Growers Association	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		2461 Larsen Dr	open
Apple Pantry Farm (#37)	Café	Coffee	2310 Hidden Valley Ln	open
Auriga wine cellars	Bar		3500 Carson Rd	open
Barsotti Juice Co Ranch	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	2239 Hidden Valley Ln	open
Bumgarner Wine Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom		3550 Carson Rd	open
Camino Coffee Mill	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3600 Carson Rd	open
Chateau Davell Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3020 Vista Tierra Dr	open
Crystal Basin Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		3550 Carson Rd	open
diVittorio Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3500 Carson Rd	open
DiVittorio Winery Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3961 Seven Ridges Rd	open
Edio Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bakery	Bakery	3205 N Canyon Rd Bldg 1	open
Eldo Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		3544 Carson Rd	open
Findleton Estate and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3500 Carson Rd	open
Green Acres Market Place	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3400 Carson Rd	open
Happy Hour Food & Liquor	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5115 Pony Express Trail	open
Hidden Star Camino - Apple Hill #23	Bakery · Bar	Bakery	2740 Cable Rd	open
Honey Bear Ranch -Orso Dolce Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		2826 Barkley Rd	open
Honey Bear Ranch Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		2826 Barkley Rd	open
HWY 50 Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		3544 Carson Rd	open
illuminare winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3500 Carson Rd	open
Jack Russell Farm Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		2380 Larsen Dr	open
Lightner Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		3841 N Canyon Rd	open
Morton Family Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		2875 Larsen Dr	open
Nello Olivo Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3544 Carson Rd	open
North Canyon Cider Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		3541 N Canyon Rd	open
Oak House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	4083 Carson Rd	open
ParaVi Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		2875 Larsen Dr	open
Pinot Grande	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2640 Cleese Rd	open
Shorty's Doughnuts	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	2740 Cable Rd	open
Sierra Taphouse & Pizza &pizza	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	3600 Carson Rd	open
Sparkling Fin at Camino Wine Plaza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3500 Carson Rd	open
Sportsman's Hall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5620 Pony Express Trl	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3600 Carson Rd Ste B	open
The Forester	Casual dining · Bar	German / Eastern European	4110 Carson Rd	open
Tropics Ale House Apple Hill	Casual dining · Bar	Hawaiian / Pacific	3590 Carson Rd	open
Wofford Acres Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1900 Hidden Valley Ln	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	8	7	1	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	5	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	4	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	3	3	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	4	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95709. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.