BMIE Market 95829

Sacramento County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	31,865 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,265 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,397 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±451 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	24,755 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,763 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$105,395 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,107 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,130 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±207 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$621,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,274 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	20.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95829
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+44.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+136.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+333.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+2,500.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	31 (range 26–35) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.3 per year, r² 0.82) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	88 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	92 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95829. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.82, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.6	87	40%	+34.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	88.1	88	35%	+30.8
Market Momentum Score	92.2	92	25%	+23.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	31,865	90	40%	+36.0
Median household income (ACS)	105,395	84	40%	+33.7
Households (ACS)	9,397	84	20%	+16.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	136.4	95	35%	+33.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.2	80	25%	+19.9
Population (ACS)	31,865	90	20%	+18.0
Median household income (ACS)	105,395	84	20%	+16.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	44.4	88	50%	+44.2
10-year restaurant growth	136.4	95	30%	+28.5
20-year restaurant growth	333.3	97	20%	+19.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

Pizza 9 · Asian 5 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Japanese 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Sushi 2 · American 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Quick service 9 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Bar 1 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bradshaw Vineyards Village, Sacramento, California	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Ford Family Dogs & Smoke	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Gabby's Custom Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	10149 Sorenstam Dr	open
Green salad	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	5861 Bradshaw Rd	open
Halal Pizza Lovers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8324 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
Happy Bar Cocktails	Bar		5236 Bradshaw Rd	open
INDIAN SIZZLE - ELK GROVE	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	8359 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
KB's Thai Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	8055 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	8335 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
Lamppost Pizza Lamppost Pizza - Huntington Beach South	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8065 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8325 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	8300 Elk Grove-Florin Road	open
Papa Murphy's \| Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8364 Elk Grove Florin Road	open
Pho Fresh 2u	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	8325 Elk Grove Florin Rd Ste 800	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8324 Elk Grove Florin Rd Ste C	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Pizza Twist Pizza Twist - Bakersfield, CA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8324 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
Premium Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	8065 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8345 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
Sacramento - Elk Grove Florin Rd Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8345 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
Samurai Sam's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	8359 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	8306 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8343 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8915 Gerber Road	open
Sunrise Vineyards, Sacramento, California	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Super Taco Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8325 Elk Grove Florin Rd Ste 500	open
Sushi Q Japanese Restaurant SUSHI Q Elk Grove	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	8325 Elk Grove Florin Rd #400	open
T% Coffee + Tea T% Coffee & Tea	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	8325 Elk Grove Florin Rd Ste 200	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	8071 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
Taco Twist	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		8359 Elk Grove Florin Rd Ste 109	open
Vegan Pizza Lovers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8324 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open
Wolfe Heights Estates Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		9440 Bar Du Ln	open
Zecky's Fish Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood	8065 Elk Grove Florin Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	4	1	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	12	4	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	16	12	3	7	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	15	12	3	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	10	2	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	8	1	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	10	2	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	11	2	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	15	4	9	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	13	6	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	16	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	18	8	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	16	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	19	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	25	23	7	13	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	23	20	6	9	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	28	26	8	13	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95829. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95830	2.1 mi	1	2001
95828	3.9 mi	47	2023
95624	3.9 mi	135	2023
95827	4.1 mi	39	2023
95826	4.8 mi	62	2023
95655	4.8 mi	1	2014

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.