BMIE Market 95864

Sacramento County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,822 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,041 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±634 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	22,447 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,031 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$127,953 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,420 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,736 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±103 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$810,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±75,746 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95864
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-18.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 15–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.30) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	15 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95864. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.30, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	88.4	88	40%	+35.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.7	62	35%	+21.6
Market Momentum Score	14.7	15	25%	+3.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,500	86	40%	+34.2
Median household income (ACS)	127,953	93	40%	+37.0
Households (ACS)	10,041	86	20%	+17.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	35%	+5.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.1	84	25%	+21.0
Population (ACS)	25,500	86	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	127,953	93	20%	+18.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 15 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	50%	+7.0
10-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	30%	+4.3
20-year restaurant growth	-10	17	20%	+3.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (46)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · American 4 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Pizza 4 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Chinese 2 · European 2 · French 2 · Japanese 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegetarian 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Café 7 · Quick service 7 · Bakery 6 · Bar 6 · Dessert 6 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
19 Handles Pub & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	4235 Arden Way	open
500F Pizza x Taphouse	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza · Italian	4341 Arden Way	open
Açaí Garden	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	558 La Sierra Dr	open
Baskin Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Bakery	4355 Arden Wy	open
Bogdonov Insurance	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1721 Eastern Ave Ste 18	open
Cafe Europa	Café	Coffee	1120 Watt Ave Ste 116	open
Café La Boca	Café	Coffee	2600 Fair Oaks Blvd	open
Carmazzi Caramel Corn	Dessert	Dessert	520 La Sierra Dr	open
Casablanca Moroccan Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	3516 Fair Oaks Blvd	open
Chef De Cuisine Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3636 American River Dr	open
Cheffreys An American Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4235 Arden Way	open
Chinois City Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	3535 Fair Oaks Blvd	open
Crazy Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bakery	Bakery	3033 Hurley Way	open
Danielle's Creperie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · French · European	3535 Fair Oaks Blvd	open
Dukes Plates and Pints	Casual dining · Bar	American	510 La Sierra Dr	open
Esther's Cupcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	2600 Fair Oaks Blvd	open
Farrell's Ice Cream Parlour Restaurant	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1625 Watt Ave	open
Heat Shabu Fair Oaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	2610 Fair Oaks Blvd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Burgers	1661 Watt Ave	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	624 Watt Ave	open
Jet's	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining			open
Long Shot	Bar		4239 Arden Way	open
Mango's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1220 Arden Hills Ln	open
Mas Taco Bar Mas Taco Bar	Bar	Mexican	3535 Fair Oaks Blvd Ste a	open
Me's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Vietnamese · American	2610 Fair Oaks Blvd	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4340 Arden Way	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Plan B Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	555 La Sierra Dr	open
Riverwalk Cafe	Café	Coffee	3636 American River Dr	open
Ronnie's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	Watt ave & Hurley way	open
Sinbad Market & Bakery	Bakery	Mediterranean · Bakery	3033 Hurley Way	open
Spoto Family Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		3630 Meadow Ln	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	4301 Arden Way	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	610 Watt Avenue	open
Straw Hat Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3033 Hurley Way	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1649 Watt Ave	open
Sushi Yo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	3521 Arden Wy #103	open
Taco Exxpress	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1661 Watt Ave	open
Temple Coffee Temple Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2600 Fair Oaks Blvd	open
The Mandarin Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4321 Arden Way	open
The Old Spaghetti Factory The Old Spaghetti Factory	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1625 Watt Ave	open
The Parlor Ice Cream Puffs	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	2620 Fair Oaks Blvd	open
Wenelli's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4215 Arden Way	open
WFM Coffee Bar Allegro Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café	Coffee	4315 Arden Way	open
Yogurt Monkey	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2620 Fair Oaks Blvd	open
Vinoteca \| Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3535 Fair Oaks Blvd Ste C	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	18	17	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	18	15	8	4	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	21	18	10	5	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	22	20	10	7	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	20	16	10	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	21	17	10	5	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	22	20	10	7	3	1	NAICS2002
2004	22	21	11	7	3	1	NAICS2002
2005	26	24	13	7	4	2	NAICS2002
2006	26	24	10	9	5	1	NAICS2002
2007	26	25	12	8	5	1	NAICS2002
2008	25	24	13	5	6	1	NAICS2007
2009	25	24	13	5	6	1	NAICS2007
2010	23	20	10	5	5	1	NAICS2007
2011	22	20	10	5	5	1	NAICS2007
2012	25	23	12	5	6	1	NAICS2012
2013	25	22	11	4	7	2	NAICS2012
2014	30	28	16	4	8	1	NAICS2012
2015	27	22	11	5	6	2	NAICS2012
2016	26	23	11	4	8	2	NAICS2012
2017	27	25	13	4	8	—	NAICS2017
2018	23	22	13	4	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	24	23	13	4	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	24	22	13	3	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	25	22	13	3	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	24	23	14	4	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	18	10	3	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95864. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95825	1.8 mi	145	2023
95826	2.8 mi	62	2023
95821	2.9 mi	69	2023
95819	3.5 mi	55	2023
95827	3.6 mi	39	2023
95608	3.8 mi	81	2023
95815	4.0 mi	54	2023
95816	4.8 mi	94	2023
95817	5.0 mi	22	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.