BMIE Market 96019

Shasta County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,350 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±70 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,040 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±252 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,082 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,148 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$67,446 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,151 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,298 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±226 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$294,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,274 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 96019
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-36.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+75.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 3–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.48) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	14 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 96019. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.48, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.0	60	40%	+24.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.2	47	35%	+16.5
Market Momentum Score	13.6	14	25%	+3.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,350	71	40%	+28.5
Median household income (ACS)	67,446	43	40%	+17.2
Households (ACS)	4,040	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-36.4	9	35%	+3.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.8	85	25%	+21.3
Population (ACS)	10,350	71	20%	+14.3
Median household income (ACS)	67,446	43	20%	+8.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 14 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	50%	+8.5
10-year restaurant growth	-36.4	9	30%	+2.6
20-year restaurant growth	-22.2	13	20%	+2.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

Mexican 5 · BBQ 3 · American 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arnold's Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3256 Cascade Blvd	open
Bella La Vie Wig Boutique	Bar		2385 Cottage Ave	open
BluTaco BluTaco	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican · Chicken / wings	4525 Shasta Dam Blvd	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1725 Cascade Blvd	open
Chrissy's Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Steakhouse	3256 Cascade Blvd	open
El Borracho's Cantina	Bar	Mexican	Dave's and Emily's Backyard	open
Fall River Brewing Company Fall River Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		4617 Shasta Dam Blvd	open
Heritage Coffeehouse in Shasta Lake	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4302 Shasta Dam Blvd	open
Heritage Missional Community	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4302 Shasta Dam Blvd	open
Joe's Giant Orange Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Mexican	3104 Cascade Blvd	open
Julianita’s Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1725 Cascade Blvd	open
Old Mill Eatery & Smokehouse	Casual dining	BBQ · American	4132 Shasta Dam Blvd	open
Oriental Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Japanese · Chinese	5232 Shasta Dam Blvd	open
Piemont Marketplace	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Food truck	Sandwiches · Italian	4237 Shasta Dam Blvd	open
Pizza Factory Pizza Factory, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4432 Shasta Dam Blvd	open
Ridgetop Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		4229 Shasta Dam Blvd	open
Shasta Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	4617 Shasta Dam Blvd	open
Silver Dollar Cafe Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		4161 Front St	open
Smashbrosnorcal	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4601 Shasta Dam Blvd	open
Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5248 Shasta Dam Blvd	open
Vida Gourmet Pancakes	Food truck		4302 Shasta Dam Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	9	6	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	9	7	2	5	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	9	7	3	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	8	7	1	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	1	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	1	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	2	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	1	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	10	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	13	12	7	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	7	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	13	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	11	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	12	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	12	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	11	9	4	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	3	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	10	9	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 96019. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
96003	4.4 mi	72	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.