BMIE Market 96137

Lassen County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,923 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±504 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,366 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±205 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,297 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,872 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$65,896 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,219 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	57.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$975 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±347 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$414,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59,884 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	142.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 96137
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	24.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-45.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 2–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	37 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	27 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 96137. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	47.7	48	40%	+19.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33.0	33	35%	+11.6
Market Momentum Score	27.0	27	25%	+6.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,923	52	40%	+20.6
Median household income (ACS)	65,896	40	40%	+16.1
Households (ACS)	1,366	55	20%	+11.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	35%	+5.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.5	36	25%	+9.0
Population (ACS)	2,923	52	20%	+10.3
Median household income (ACS)	65,896	40	20%	+8.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 27 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	30%	+4.9
20-year restaurant growth	-45.5	7	20%	+1.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

Pizza 3 · American 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Dessert 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blue Ox Cafe	Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee	313 Birch St	open
Blue Ox Peninsula Grill at LACC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	951 Clifford Dr	open
Buffalo Chip's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	322 Birch St	open
Cherrywood Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		667 CA-147	open
Double G Iron Horse	Bar		320 Ash St	open
Gamboni's Peninsula Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		401 Peninsula Dr	open
Luciano's Cucina di Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	449 Peninsula Dr	open
Old Mill Cafe	Café	Coffee	324 Birch Street	open
Pizza at the Branch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3881 CR-A13	open
Red Onion Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	303 Peninsula Dr	open
Seventy7 West	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1000 Gayley Ave	open
Sug'r Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	401 Birch St	open
Sugar Pine Lounge	Bar · Casual dining		951 Clifford Dr	open
Tantardino's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	401 Ponderosa Cir	open
Waganupa Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		401 Peninsula Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	13	12	10	2	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	8	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	14	13	9	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	7	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	9	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	11	7	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	12	11	8	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	14	13	9	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	10	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	9	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	7	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	8	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	7	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	8	7	6	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	8	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	8	7	6	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	7	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 96137. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.