BMIE Market 96779

Maui County, Hawaii · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,780 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±559 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	966 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±165 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,088 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,292 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$98,929 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,524 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,395 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±707 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,090,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±142,830 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 96779
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	42.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+53.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+233.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 16–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.35) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	84 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 96779. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.35, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Hawaii and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 78, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.2	62	40%	+24.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.4	58	35%	+20.4
Market Momentum Score	84.0	84	25%	+21.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,780	51	40%	+20.3
Median household income (ACS)	98,929	80	40%	+32.1
Households (ACS)	966	49	20%	+9.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	35%	+30.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	71.9	6	25%	+1.6
Population (ACS)	2,780	51	20%	+10.2
Median household income (ACS)	98,929	80	20%	+16.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	42.9	88	50%	+44.1
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	30%	+26.2
20-year restaurant growth	53.9	68	20%	+13.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (38)

By cuisine

Coffee 13 · Dessert 5 · Healthy / salads / bowls 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Pizza 4 · American 2 · Asian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · Thai 2 · Vegetarian 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Peruvian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Café 9 · Coffee shop 7 · Bar 6 · Dessert 5 · Food truck 5 · Quick service 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Catering 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anthony's Coffee Co.	Coffee shop	Coffee	90 Hana Hwy	open
Aumakua Kava Lounge	Café	Coffee	149 Hana Hwy	open
Cafe Des Amis	Dessert · Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert · Breakfast	42 Baldwin Ave	open
Cafe Mambo	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	30 Baldwin Ave	open
Charley's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Pizza	142 Hana Hwy	open
Choice Paia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	11 Baldwin Ave	open
Coconut Caboose	Food truck			open
Da Vine Art	Bar		149 Hana Hwy Ste 3	open
Flatbread Company Flatbread Company Providence	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	89 Hana Hwy	open
Flatbread Pizza Flatbread Company Providence	Coffee shop · Quick service	Pizza · Coffee		open
Hana Picnic Lunch Company	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	99 Hana Hwy	open
Ignition Coffee	Coffee shop · Catering · Café	Coffee	83 Hana Hwy	open
Kūʻau Store	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	701 Hana Hwy	open
Lima Cocina + Cantina	Bar	Peruvian · Latin American (other)	71 Baldwin Ave	open
Maka by Mana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegetarian · Vegan	49 Baldwin Ave	open
Mama's Fish House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	799 Poho Pl	open
Milagros Food Co.	Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	3 Baldwin Ave	open
Moana Bakery & Cafe	Bakery	Bakery	71 Baldwin Ave	open
Nourish Health Bar and Cafe Maui	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	161 Hana Hwy	open
nyloS	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · European	115 Baldwin Ave	open
Only Ono Bbq, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	401 Baldwin Ave	open
Paia Bay Coffee & Bar	Café · Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee	120 Hana Hwy	open
Paia Bowls	Café	Coffee	43 Hana Hwy	open
Paia Fish Market Restaurant Paia Fish Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Hawaiian / Pacific	100 Hana Hwy	open
Paia Fruit And Farm Stand	Food truck · Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	381 Baldwin Ave	open
Paia Gelato	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	99 Hana Hwy C	open
Papio's Place	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		111 Stable Rd	open
Rock & Brews	Bar		120 Hana Hwy	open
Roselani Scoop Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	115 D, 115 Hana Hwy	open
Sip Me	Coffee shop	Coffee	106 Hana Hwy	open
Thai Farm Fresh	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	111 Stable Rd	open
Thai Spice LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	149 Hana Hwy	open
The Boba Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea		open
Tobi's Shave Ice	Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	127 Hana Hwy	open
Tobis North Shore Shave Ice Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		137 Hana Hwy	open
Ululani's Hawaiian Shave Ice	Dessert	Dessert	115 Hana Hwy	open
Uptown	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Pizza	109 Baldwin Ave	open
Vana Paia	Bar	Japanese · Sushi	93 Hana Hwy #3	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	13	13	9	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	14	10	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	13	9	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	12	9	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	12	9	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	10	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	12	9	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	12	9	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	14	9	2	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	13	8	2	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	14	8	2	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	13	8	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	16	8	4	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	14	8	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	18	9	4	5	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	15	8	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	14	8	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	16	9	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	17	10	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	15	8	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	16	9	—	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	20	10	3	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 96779. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.