BMIE Market 97002

Marion County, Oregon · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,358 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,008 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,389 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±302 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,623 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,230 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$70,137 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,740 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,683 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±355 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$530,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±65,818 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	41.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 97002
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 2–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2011–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.34) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	36 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 97002. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2011–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.34, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Oregon and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 349, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.3	57	40%	+22.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76.2	76	35%	+26.7
Market Momentum Score	35.9	36	25%	+9.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,358	64	40%	+25.7
Median household income (ACS)	70,137	47	40%	+18.9
Households (ACS)	2,389	64	20%	+12.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.3	87	25%	+21.8
Population (ACS)	6,358	64	20%	+12.8
Median household income (ACS)	70,137	47	20%	+9.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	20%	+1.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

American 4 · Bakery 4 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 4 · BBQ 3 · Dessert 2 · Mexican 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 4 · Bar 4 · Café 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aurora Colonly Pub	Bar			open
Aurora Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		21338 Oak Ln NE	open
Chug Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	21030 OR-99E	open
Cinnabon Cinnabon	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	12334 Ehlen Rd NE	open
Country Grains	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	14601 Arndt Rd	open
Domaine Mathiot	Winery / distillery / taproom		10375 Champoeg Rd NE	open
El Jalisience Taco Truck	Food truck	Mexican · Latin American (other)	Bents Ct NE	open
Filberts Farmhouse Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	21317 OR-99E	open
Fire Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	12271 Melinda Ln NE	open
Foodcarts Galore	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		21200 OR-99E	open
From Russia with Love	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European · European	12271 Melinda Ln NE	open
Gillmor Barn & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	Schultz Rd NE	open
Granny Fi's Shortbread	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	21338 Pacific Hwy E	open
Half Pint Brothers	Dessert · Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Bar	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Sandwiches	10767 Butte St NE	open
Langdon's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Breakfast	24377 NE Airport Rd	open
Lanphere Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		26444 Butteville Rd NE	open
Marshal Smash Burger	Quick service	Burgers · American	12271 Melinda Ln NE	open
Oregon Hophouse Brewing	Restaurant (service type not stated)		22675 Butteville Rd NE	open
Pheasant Run Winery & Tasting	Winery / distillery / taproom		21690 Main St NE	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service · Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	21856 Bents Rd NE	open
Popeyes Popeyes	Quick service		21856 Bents Rd NE	open
Salt & Pepper	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	12184 Ehlen Rd NE	open
Sizzling Tandoori Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	12271 Melinda Ln NE	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	12334 Ehlen Road	open
The Aurora Colony Pub	Bar · Casual dining		21568 OR-99E	open
The Cobbler Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	21641 Main St NE	open
Top-O-Hill Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25496 S Highway 99e	open
White Rabbit Bakery	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	21368 OR-99E NE	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	7	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	7	2	2	—	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	7	1	1	—	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	7	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	8	5	2	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	2	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	3	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	3	1	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	5	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	5	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	5	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 97002. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
97020	2.5 mi	1	2013
97032	4.2 mi	5	2023
97070	4.8 mi	61	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.